Just like Steve Harvey.
Posted on 02/20/2016 8:33:53 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump's landslide victory in South Carolina is a waking nightmare for the Republican Party.
By winning the South Carolina primary, Donald Trump demonstrated he can win anywhere.
By coming in second place, well behind Trump and barely (about 1,000 votes with 99 percent reporting) ahead of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio demonstrated he will have a hard time winning anywhere.
Rubio, and basically the entire Republican Party establishment, marched into South Carolina determined to play up an expected third-place finish as a kind of triumph and a second-place finish as outright victory. Before any networks had called second place, Rubio delivered an exultant speech promising to win the GOP nomination.
There are reasons to credit this as more than just amusingly strained political vaudeville. By breaking out of the pack of also-rans, Rubio forced Jeb Bush out of the race. If he hoovers up nearly all of Bush's supporters, he stands to eclipse Cruz as the de facto leader of the non-Trump faction of the race. If John Kasich follows suit, after finishing below even Bush in South Carolina, Cruz may slip to a distant third. Viewed in that light, Rubio's performance in South Carolina might genuinely and enduringly change the race.
But this also is the most charitable way to interpret Rubio's distant second-place finish. Not because these are outlandish assumptions--they aren't. It's just that even if everything goes according to plan, Rubio will have proved fairly little in South Carolina.
By inundating Rubio's campaign with endorsements and money, Republican Party officials have effectively communicated that they'll attempt to thwart the will of the majority of GOP primary voters who support Trump and Cruz. And yet, despite all of that juice--and as badly as Cruz underperformed--Rubio can't count on Cruz fading rapidly. He definitely can't seem to come within spitting distance of Trump anywhere. And on top of all that, he's yet to endure a concerted Trump onslaught the way Cruz has, and Bush did--and both those candidates were harmed badly.
Though the South Carolina returns drove Bush from the race, it isn't a foregone conclusion that his supporters will overwhelmingly defect to Rubio. One of the most critical lessons of Iowa and New Hampshire is that Trump draws his support from across the party, including its mainstream. Many Bush supporters will presumably also defect to Kasich, who essentially skipped South Carolina and is pinning his ever-dim hopes on Northern primaries in Michigan and his home state of Ohio in March. Ben Carson's supporters will likewise scatter, rather than defect to a single candidate in unison (though Cruz stands to be the single largest beneficiary).
Notwithstanding all these inconvenient truths, Rubio will emerge from South Carolina a party favorite and a media darling.
The person with the most to fear from the results is Cruz. South Carolina was supposed to serve as a model for the Super Tuesday states he needs to win--and with the evangelical turnout as overwhelming as it was, he should've been able to do better than a dead heat for second, double digits behind Trump.
Had Rubio finished third--ideally a distant third--Cruz could have credibly continued portraying the primary as a two-man race between himself and Trump. But Trump is a popular favorite, and Rubio is an elite favorite. Cruz enjoy neither of those advantages. To the extent that he thrives, it is thanks to the loyalty of conservative ideologues and Christian conservatives (many of whom, again, are still supporting Carson, Rubio, and Trump). If their affinity for Cruz isn't robust enough to reliably outperform Rubio, his supporters will begin to question the logic of his candidacy. A fading Cruz would have little room to expand his appeal beyond right-wing purists (his concession speech tonight once again played up his "consistent conservative" bona fides), and his campaign would serve barely any purpose other than to deny Rubio a chance to challenge Trump one-on-one.
As time goes on, though, all the effort we expend examining the race for second place so granularly starts to seem like whistling past the graveyard. Trump probably could've won Iowa, and arguably should have. He won New Hampshire overwhelmingly. He just won South Carolina overwhelmingly, too, and is poised to do the same thing in Nevada's caucuses on Tuesday night. This is a waking nightmare for the Republican Party. Their played-up enthusiasm for Rubio can't disguise it.
First it was the Green Iguana and now this...
LOL ...your logic escapes everyone ...
Trump’s going to run the table. So no.
Fox. He can win on Fox.
Rubio.. hasn’t won a single primary yet.
Actually Trump is up by 21 Points in Florida
Trump’s going to run the table. So no.
The GOPe can win some states. Minnesota is a possibility. Only real question now is if 3rd place Cruz peels off enough anti-establishment voters for Rubio get ahead of Trump.
I just want to say that Rubio is for Amnesty with Chuck Schumer , John McCain and that squirrel Linda Graham. If you like amnesty and those guys then you will love Rubio. I am appalled by him but know this. &8% 0f the party can’t stand the 5” amnesty lover. I feel quite certain that the bush 3% will endorse the little amnesty loving credit card thief. You will see wild eyed establishment start loving him but I hate to tell you — he will not win a single state. Not one. I will never vote for Rubio— ever.
Actually Trump is up by 21 Points in Florida
Bush got out early so Rubio would have a good run at Florida, IMO.
No, his job is to help keep trump from getting 50% +1 delegate by convention time. Between him and Cruz they will do that and as well Rubio will keep Cruz from getting 1237 delegates also.
Then it ends up a brokered convention and none of the above gets the nomination. Easy peasy to get rid of Cruz and Trump.
Fox News seems to define second place as “winning”. By that definition, Rubio can “win” far and wide. It’s like giving kids participation trophies
Well, Trump has more than 50 percent of the delegates so far, so that GOPe strategy ain’t working yet
Just like Steve Harvey.
Don’t fool yourself, all those Bush voters are now Rubio voters.
He just picked up any potential Jeb voters. In SC that would have been worth another 7%.
Jeese Bill, the race has just begun. 1237 out of 2472 is a long, long ways down the road. Tonight is but a speck on the map to winning.
According to who?
My Eastern friends and relatives. They all be live everything that Rove and Trump have been putting out about Cruze and they hate Trump. They are like Marco Rubio and think that he changed on immigration and aren’t really that concerned with it anyway. They kind of think it’s social justice.
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