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Donald Trump is the favorite to be the Republican nominee. Period.
WP ^ | January 22, 2016 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 01/24/2016 4:32:39 AM PST by GonzoII

The Iowa caucuses are 10 days from Friday. And Donald Trump, the larger-than-life real estate reality star, is -- still -- the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Not only has Trump not disappeared or imploded -- as everyone everywhere predicted he would -- he appears to be getting stronger in both early-state and national polling as actual votes draw closer.

At this point, Trump's path to putting the nomination away quickly is far easier than the one Hillary Clinton must travel to capture the Democratic nomination. That doesn't mean Trump is a sure thing just yet, but he has, without question, the best chance of any Republican running to claim the party's top prize.

Below, my latest rankings of the six men who have a realistic-to-semi-realistic chance of winning the GOP nomination. If your preferred candidate's name isn't on the list, it's because they, well, aren't going to win.


(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: Iowa; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; chriscillizza; districtofcolumbia; election2016; elections; immigration; iowa; newyork; trump; trumpwasright; washingtoncompost; washingtonpost
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To: GonzoII

No this is not Trump bashing. It is what I hope to be a reasonable question. And yes I think it is Donald’s to lose. But how commanding is his lead? He is between 35-40% support which means at least 60% is not voting for him now. I think I saw in the last poll around 27% were undecided.

Right now Trump is running against the field, not just Cruz or Rubio, he is the ultimate outsider. So what happens when the field narrows significantly to a two man race? I would say that Cruz as it stands now would get the majority (maybe guessing) of Carson, Bush, Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, and Fiorina’s votes. I did not add Rubio because he will likely be a low percentage spoiler in the long run. An establishment clinger.

Anything can happen and may the best man win. But I personally think the race is far from over. I suspect once everyone with no chance of winning park their clown cars we will have a real race. Then again, it might be the blow out we are seeing now. Time will tell.


41 posted on 01/24/2016 5:40:18 AM PST by BushCountry (Studies show that one out of three Liberals are as stupid as the other two.)
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To: Bulwyf

I agree.God may be trying/doing that through Trump however flawed Trump may be.Only time will tell.


42 posted on 01/24/2016 5:40:48 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Bulwyf

Also interesting at this point is whether the GOPe, if they couldn’t stop a Cruz nomination, would go to court arm-in-arm with the Dems to fight Cruz’s eligibility. That IMO could either knock Cruz out or weaken him such that, especially coupled with a Bloomberg third-party run, Cruz would have no chance in the general.

My guess is that the hedge-funded and Goldman-funded Cruz would strike a deal with the Establishment to stop that from happening, but I’m not totally certain.


43 posted on 01/24/2016 5:41:42 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: lucky american

There are more of us than there are of them.


44 posted on 01/24/2016 5:43:26 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: BobL

Sounds like the makings of an online show here at FR called where are they now?


45 posted on 01/24/2016 5:45:37 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: LS
I hope he’z everything y'all think he is. Looking like he is going to capture the nomination (outside of GOPe dirty tricks) and I just pray he is a conservative.

The dayz of “compassionate conservatism” still haunt this nation.

46 posted on 01/24/2016 5:45:51 AM PST by servantboy777
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To: Bulwyf

The BIG difference is that Obama never had any personality cult to begin with and he never accomplished anything but getting any opponents disqualified or pulling out by getting sealed court records unsealed.

Are you going to deny that Trump has a long history of getting things done?


47 posted on 01/24/2016 5:46:10 AM PST by mazda77
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To: Fiji Hill

Is nickcaraway heading that up?


48 posted on 01/24/2016 5:53:57 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Bulwyf
I wish real Americans would wake up and realize too that the country can’t be fixed by man. People need to turn their hearts to God.

The politicians are scum because we are scum. Until the people decide they want to follow God, and do something about it, we will continue the downward spiral. I will not be surprised if the people elect a Bernie Sanders.

49 posted on 01/24/2016 5:54:27 AM PST by ecomcon
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To: navet97

You go to war with the army you have not the one you wish you had.looks like hes our best shot as the media and pundits cant take him down.


50 posted on 01/24/2016 5:57:30 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Bulwyf
People need to turn their hearts to God.

That's what they don't want to hear.

51 posted on 01/24/2016 5:59:10 AM PST by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
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To: Bulwyf

Problem is God is not running so we have Cruz and Trump to run .


52 posted on 01/24/2016 5:59:44 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: 9YearLurker

It appears Trump is way ahead of everyone at this point.

In these days of global calamity, and economic uncertainty, I really hope the US can come back around. The consequences are too horrific to comprehend if it all fails now.

That being said, God has his plans, and we’d do well to get on board.


53 posted on 01/24/2016 6:01:20 AM PST by Bulwyf
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To: Bulwyf

“I wish real Americans would wake up and realize too that the country can’t be fixed by man. People need to turn their hearts to God.”

When I see God on the ballot I’ll think about it. Until then... Go Trump!


54 posted on 01/24/2016 6:01:34 AM PST by Pravious
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To: Bulwyf

That’s what folks were saying about Reagan in 1980.

I do not think Trump is Reagan. I know Trump loves his country and wants to undo damage that the DiC has done


55 posted on 01/24/2016 6:02:16 AM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: 9YearLurker

I think all the big government, pro spending people would do anything to keep a real conservative out of office.


56 posted on 01/24/2016 6:02:43 AM PST by Bulwyf
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To: servantboy777

I am to the point that the label “Conservative” has been hijacked and redefined by the establishment to include them and freeze out patriots. If you are not labeled by them as a Conservative, you are just among the “Right-wing Nut Jobs” and whatever else they use to diminish those who are patriots first and to further entrench the power holdings of the “Establishment”.

Progressives of the 20’s were so emasculated by the Wilson era that they had to go into hiding and then redefine themselves as “Liberal” to make the implication of aligning with the libertarian mindset.

Then again, the Democrat Party and the media has changed the template to calling themselves the Democratic Party to make the inference they are democratic and not the actual socialists.


57 posted on 01/24/2016 6:03:01 AM PST by mazda77
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To: lucky american

“I think Bernie Sanders will clean Trumps clock. Trump isn’t promising freebies and the people want freebies.”

We can be free of illegal immigrants... does that count? :-)


58 posted on 01/24/2016 6:03:17 AM PST by Pravious
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To: mazda77

I will not deny that Trump gets things done. It’s just what he gets done that concerns me.

As I’ve said to other freepers though, God has a plan and I can’t read God’s mind.


59 posted on 01/24/2016 6:04:39 AM PST by Bulwyf
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To: New Jersey Realist

You misquote Trump. Trump was quoting from an editorial that said that about his supporters. Trump asked the crowd if they felt disrespected and misunderstood.

I don’t care who you are for but do not twist and misquote to sound good


60 posted on 01/24/2016 6:04:42 AM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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