Posted on 01/21/2016 3:05:15 PM PST by TBBT
A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump.
For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012.
There are sometimes reasons to prefer looser screens. It can be hard to predict who will vote. Also, self-selection in who responds to poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
‘only 4% of the iowa population voted in the caucus’
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And yet we let 4% of a small state decide which 2-3 people will move on to next primary state? That 4% will give the MSM a narrative on who is the winner, who is catching up and who is a loser.
Freaking hate how we pick our nominees. And yes, sour grapes from the state of Washington where we never have any role.
Agree.
This year they will have a large turnout
and they will get it right.
“And yet we let 4% of a small state decide which 2-3 people will move on to next primary state?”
They don’t. All of the candidates can move on to NH. It’s their choice. And NH has more frequently than not voted for someone other than who wins in Iowa. It’s a crap-shoot.
CNN thinks voter turn out in Iowa will TRIPLE in just 4 years? CNN is nuts.
I remember Trump, years ago, taunting Wulf Blister during an interview about that.
Telling him “be glad you have so few viewers watching you embarrass yourself”
After Palin endorses him and that moron Beck comes out for Trump, Cruz will blow Trump away.
People that sat out in 2012 election are coming out now to vote due the damage the President has done over past 4 years. I think there are just so many angry Americans about the direction this country has gone- they will vote as if their lives depend on it.
How many precincts will each candidate win? And by what margin? In which precincts will the supporters of Huckabee, Santorum, etal try to stop one of the leaders? In which precincts will supporters of one of the leaders piss off the supporters of Huckabee, Santorum, etal?
Precinct caucuses go to a congressional district caucus, right? In which congressional district will which candidate have critical mass?
Aren’t Convention Delegates by Congressional District? Not by Precinct?
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