Posted on 01/11/2016 1:02:30 PM PST by presidio9
About 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would buck the party and vote for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in a general election, according to a new poll.
The willingness of some Democrats to change sides could be a major problem for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton this fall.
The new figures were released by Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, as the result of an online poll and dial-test of Trump's first campaign ad.
A smaller number of Republicans say they’d vote for Clinton - about 14 percent.
Ron Howard, the company's CEO and a Democrat, said he expected Trump’s first campaign ad to have "little impact - or in fact negative impact" on Democrats and independents. But the ad actually resonated with Democrats more than he expected.
About one-quarter of Democrats said they "agree completely" that the ad raises good points, with another 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."
"The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds," Howard said, according to U.S. News & World Report.
The company surveyed about 916 likely voters this week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
With all of that being said, the most important issue to me in the upcoming election is not immigration or national security or even the economy. For me, the issue that will always matter most until Roe Vs. Wade is overturned is the sanctity of human life and in particular the protection of the unborn, who are unable to protect themselves.
Now, like many adults I know, Donald Trump has come a long way from his pro-choice days, and I take him at his word and commend him for that. But, right now four Supreme Court justices are over 70 years of age, and three of them were appointed by Republicans. One is the most liberal justice on the court, two are dependably pro-life, and one is a swing vote. Thus, the next president of the United States may have the power to affect national law, culture and policy not just for the next four years, but for generations. And for the first time in decades, a majority of Americans are pro-life.
As I said, I take Trump at his word, but it is fair to say that he is the least trustworthy opponent of this particular issue. As recently as this fall he said his sister, NJ circuit court Judge Maryanne Trump Barry would make a phenomenal SCOTUS appointee. Barry called a NJ a law to protect the unborn from partial birth abortion " a desperate attempt†to undermine Roe v. Wade."
So, as I said, I take Trump at his word, but I am also aware of his tendency to tell people what they want to hear in order to bring a deal to closure. I am hoping that abortion becomes a topic of discussion in the upcoming debate, and that the discussion has more substance than the obvious defunding of Planned Parenthood. And until it does, I can't get behind Trump other than as the least flawed in a pool of hopelessly flawed candidates. And for the moment, on the subject that matters most, he is unfortunately the most flawed.
It was FDR who made a depression out of what should have been a cyclical recession ... And not only did FDRs policies create the Great Depression, they extended it to the point that the only way he could get us out of it was to find a way to drag us into WWII.
As I said in the beginning, Donald Trump is right about many issues, but he is dangerously wrong on the subject of free trade.
The good news is that I doubt he means to do half of the things he says he will do in terms of protectionism.
But if he did, there is a good chance you would be just as angry in two years as you are right now. Only then you would also be unemployed.
I AM UNEMPLOYED NOW! And this is the freaking FOURTH time around! I’ve changed careers THREE times, and put myself through college just as many times for each change. I’m 55 years old. I cannot continue down this same path - I’m just too damn spent. I could tell you a lot more, but there’s not enough space to write it all!
BTW, I agree with you 100 percent on the abortion issue, and I also have my reservations regarding the sick perversion that is same-sex “marriage” - I’m a traditional pre-Vatican II Catholic, if that helps you to understand my cultural leanings.
the amount of enthusiasm building across this nation for anyone NOT in DC is enormous and far surpasses any of these nay-sayers that say Trump can’t win. He and Cruzin are my fav’s.
I heard something interesting today on a radio talk show in Milwaukee..... that the peeps are NOT telling the pollsters the truth about being a Trump supporter. Far more are for Trump than the polls state. I agree. The total disgust being discussed everywhere is for the entire DC cartel.
Simple - look at Trump’s rallies. Look at Piaps rallies.
I hear you, and you have my sympathies. I just hope you understand that if you expect any president to improve your lot through protectionism, you'd be better off buying Powerball tickets. A trade war with China is more likely to result in 20% (or more) unemployment in this country.
BTW, I agree with you 100 percent on the abortion issue, and I also have my reservations regarding the sick perversion that is same-sex “marriage†- I’m a traditional pre-Vatican II Catholic, if that helps you to understand my cultural leanings.
Short of a Constitutional amendment, I doubt there is anything the next president can do to change the legality of same sex marriage in this country. What the next president can do is effect the way and the extent to which this newfound right is enforced.
For example, the next president has the opportunity to fight for the religious liberty of those that oppose same sex marriage, so they are not forced to bake cakes by gay crusaders who seek them out for revenge persecution. Again, I would not expect this to be near the top of Donald Trump's agenda list.
On the other hand, the first priority is and always must be ensuring that Hillary Clinton is never president. This is a woman who has said (among many other things, of course), that
"deep-seated cultural codes, religious beliefs and structural biases have to be changed [in the effort to gain further acceptance of pro-life causes]."
When she said this, I thought for sure "this is IT." This is the thing coming out of her mouth that will end her political career once and for all. It calls to mind a legal effort to outlaw religious views that abortion is murder.
As we know that did not happen, but I believe something along those lines is exactly what she has in store for us.
As a fellow Catholic, I say a prayer that you and your family will find the peace, love and security you deserve in the difficult months ahead.
And you are commended for that view. I, too, understand that the abortion issue is a high water mark. All the innocent lives ended are nothing but murders deemed possible by federal government due to the SC Justices which our congress chose to vote and place there. And the next SCJ will in all likely hood be the choice of the next CIC. When that time comes, that bridge will be crossed. If, as he claims, there will be many a good man working with him who would be steering him in the proper direction should he not know which way to turn. And there is always WTP - we make our voices heard. HE WILL WORK FOR US. NOT RULE US. Of course, none of this is written in stone and the man might turn out to be more of a basket case than the dark won we now own. However, this seems doubtful. TRUMP does not come across in that way. I remember the interview and his saying his sister would be a great SCJ. That is something no one seemed tho hear or understand. There was a good deal of discussion about that statement here at the time. I know nothing about his sister, but for him to state that was a blinker. First, it’s his sister! One is not elected to the highest office in the land and offer his sister a highly esteemed job. Do believe these were ‘just words’ spoken and not in reality a thought that would be considered when the time came to do so. If the persons he has surrounding him are doing their job, they would put a lid on that pronto. Heard somewhere that nepotism is not allowed in Federal government. Just like it was heard to be an NBC one must be born to two parents, not one.
Living as you do/did in Florida and NY which do you prefer, if you don’t mind my asking. Given the choice of Texas and NY I chose Texas. Lived here all my life and after visiting NYC found that I could not stomach living there. Buildings too high, too many people. Living expenses out of sight and all those taxes. Texas has a special place in my heart and it is much warmer here as well :-)) DH is from Jersey, moved to Texas when 5 yo. He has come to love this state as much as I and doesn’t remember much about the northern life.
Keep on keeping on. We must work as hard as others to get this country on the right track...that of our Founding Fathers vision of One Nation Under God. Not until that happens will we ever be GREAT again.
Go TRUMP
Go CRUZ
We want the two of yous
Make AMERICA GREAT for GREAT AMERICANS!
“deep-seated cultural codes, religious beliefs and structural biases have to be changed [in the effort to gain further acceptance of pro-life causes].”
Did you not mean to write “further acceptance of pro-choice” causes in that quote?
Yes, right. My bad.
Thanks for the assist.
Open your eyes my FRiend.
Donald Trump is very skilled as a businessman in telling people exactly what they need to hear in order to bring a deal to closure.
When Donald trump is validated in his own mind as the most important human being on earth (and therefore the universe), he will do whatever the hell Donald Trump thinks is in the best interest of this country.
It is no accident that his closest advisors these days are his two oldest children.
Living as you do/did in Florida and NY which do you prefer, if you don’t mind my asking. Given the choice of Texas and NY I chose Texas. Lived here all my life and after visiting NYC found that I could not stomach living there. Buildings too high, too many people. Living expenses out of sight and all those taxes. Texas has a special place in my heart and it is much warmer here as well :-)) DH is from Jersey, moved to Texas when 5 yo. He has come to love this state as much as I and doesn’t remember much about the northern life.
I have bad memories of Florida. It was fun for a while, but Palm Beach is a resort area. I was too young to be there, and most of the women I met were going home next week. My business failed, and I moved back to New York. I've also lived in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland and Arizona, but (politics aside) I'm happiest in New York for two reasons:
First because I come from a large and extended family and everyone in the world that I love is here.
Second, because (and I get this is exactly why you and others hate it) I like the sense that I am living in the center of it all. There is an energy around the city of New York that exists nowhere else (with the possible exception of London).
If none of that mattered, the most beautiful place that I have ever visited is Northern California. I think I could be happy there.
OTOH, I dated a girl from Corpus Christie in college, and she always talked about it like it was Heaven. I don't know because I never visited. I suppose where we grow up has a lot to do with what we think of as home.
That’s for sure. One of those selections would be good.
That’s the think that always stood about about Leftists to me.
There are countries all over the world where Leftists rule. Pick one. Be my guest. Don’t let the barn door...
Leave our nation alone.
I’ve heard that too. I don’t know what to make of it.
There are some intangibles we won’t know about until the primary or caucus day.
If I came down on a side on this, but would essentially be speculation. I can wait.
Not giving you a hard time with this response. It’s a valid issue and an interesting one.
People also are different by age.
Think about the differences between 20-somethings, working men and women, ghetto inhabitants, retired military and so on.
Pollsters are usually men and there IS a difference when he is speaking with a male, female, pretty, handsome, well-dressed, etc.
One of the SURE things is that people OFTEN respond to a pollster in a way THEY think he wants to hear. That is engraved in granite.
A good way to get opinions is to have people write out what they think and be anonymous. But, then you also have cheaters who get polled twice. You also need HUGE numbers to get ANY kind of validity.
I had to take two or three statistics class (barf) and it's there that I heard, read and wrote about the low validity and reliability of polls.
I hadn't even thought about that. You're probably right in that.
I wonder if the Dems will "change their tune" about same-sex marriage. It DOES defy all faiths and all common sense and same-gender liasons have ALWAYS been considered bad, wrong and/or sinful and they are excoriated by all cultures.
The reaction to same sex liasons is the same everywhere: yuck!
“I won’t trade my principles for a chance to win because even if we win, we still lose.”
I’m personally of the opinion that if we don’t do something drastic about the illegal immigration problem soon, then conservatives can permanently kiss goodbye any hope of winning future national elections. The left is importing in future Democrat voters, but some Dems realize the illegals are actually costing and hurting them, so they move toward Trump. Even if Trump turns liberal on health care or whatever, so long as he deals with immigration and border security then that will not be a “loss” to me. I recently read the chapter, “It’s Called Illegal Immigration for a Reason,” from his 2011 book, Time to Get Tough. Even if he just implements the ideas that he wrote about then (border walls, deporting criminals, not considering anchor babies as citizens, etc.), we will be making a big step forward.
Of course, Cruz is also pretty strong on the border/illegals, but I’ve never come across a single Democrat or even Independent who supports him (or has even expressed a liking for him as a human being). I think he’s only doing well in the polls against Hillary at the moment because he’s relatively unknown to so many still. I just don’t see how he can win with only the pure conservative vote, which means no wall, eVerify, stepping up of deportations, etc.—and so demographics will soon kill the conservative movement. Remember Cruz himself has praised Trump. Trump will be so superior to the Democrats (and establishment Repubs) on several key issues that I frankly don’t feel inclined to sweat the other stuff. The progressive left is not going positively insane over Trump because he’s one of them.
At any rate, I still want moderates, as well as socially conservative, pro-American working-class Dems (and I know several), to vote with us instead of the Democrats. I don’t see how we can ever win again without them—and we’ll be a lot worse off because of that.
Well Mama was consistent. Where have Hilary’s two dork brothers been hiding lately. Sharing a rock with other snakes. One was named Hugh, can’t remember the other one. Think Larry, Darrell and The other brother Darrell were fashioned after all 3 rodham children.
So in Trump vs Hillary we 20% of Dems voting fr Trump and 14% of Republicans going to Hillary. Net gain of 6% for Trump. Could put Co OH, Fl and VA back on the GOP side.
Does anyone in their right mind think 14% of Republicans are going to vote for Hillary?
If she gets 1% I’d be surprised.
Maybe someone knows something I don’t, but I’m not buying that noise.
Not blaming you for the assumption either.
Exports accounted for _______ of GDP in 1935?
If a tiny fraction of the economy disappeared ENTIRELY could it cause a depression or exacerbate a depression?
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