Posted on 01/11/2016 1:02:30 PM PST by presidio9
About 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would buck the party and vote for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in a general election, according to a new poll.
The willingness of some Democrats to change sides could be a major problem for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton this fall.
The new figures were released by Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, as the result of an online poll and dial-test of Trump's first campaign ad.
A smaller number of Republicans say they’d vote for Clinton - about 14 percent.
Ron Howard, the company's CEO and a Democrat, said he expected Trump’s first campaign ad to have "little impact - or in fact negative impact" on Democrats and independents. But the ad actually resonated with Democrats more than he expected.
About one-quarter of Democrats said they "agree completely" that the ad raises good points, with another 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."
"The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds," Howard said, according to U.S. News & World Report.
The company surveyed about 916 likely voters this week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Consider that the administration has done the following:
-- Forced Japan to accept restraints on auto exports. The agreement set total Japanese auto exports at 1.68 million vehicles in 1981-82, 8 percent below 1980 exports. Two years later the level was permitted to rise to 1.85 million.(33) Clifford Winston of the Brookings Institution found that the import limits have actually cost jobs in the U.S. auto industry by making it possible for the sheltered American automakers to raise prices and limit production. In 1984, Winston writes in Blind Intersection? Policy and the Automobile Industry, 32,000 jobs were lost, U.S. production fell by 300,000 units, and profits for U.S. firms increased $8.9 billion. The quotas have also made the Japanese firms potentially more formidable rivals because they have begun building assembly plants in the United States.(34) They also shifted production to larger cars, introducing to American firms competition they did not have before the quotas were created. In 1984, it was estimated that higher prices for domestic and imported cars cost consumers $2.2 billion a year.(35) At the height of the dollar's exchange rate with the yen in 1984-85, the quotas were costing American consumers the equivalent of $11 billion a year.(36)
-- Tightened up considerably the quotas on imported sugar. Imports fell from an annual average of 4.85 million tons in 1979-81 to an annual average of 2.86 million tons in 1982-86. Not only did this continued practice force Americans to spend more than other consumers for sugar, but it created hardships for Latin American countries and the Philippines, which depend on sugar exports for economic development. The quota program undermined President Reagan's Caribbean Basin Initiative and intensified the international debt crisis.(37)
-- Negotiated to increase restrictiveness of the Multifiber Arrangement and extended restrictions to previously unrestricted textiles. The administration unilaterally changed the rule of origin in order to restrict textile and apparel imports further and imposed a special ceiling on textiles from the People's Republic of China.(38) Finally, it pressured Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, the largest exporters of textiles and apparel to the United States, into highly restrictive bilateral agreements. All told, textile and apparel restrictions cost Americans more than $20 billion a year.(39) The Reagan administration has stated several times that textile and apparel imports should grow no faster than the domestic market.(40)
-- Required 18 countries--including Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Finland, and Australia, as well as the European Community--to accept "voluntary restraint agreements" to reduce steel imports, guaranteeing domestic producers a share of the American market. When 3 countries not included in the 18--Canada, Sweden, and Taiwan-- increased steel exports to the United States, the administration demanded talks to check the increase. The administration also imposed tariffs and quotas on specialty steel. These policies, with their resulting shortages, have severely squeezed American steel-using firms, making them less competitive in world markets and eliminating more than 52,000 jobs.(41)
-- Imposed a five-year duty, beginning at 45 percent, on Japanese motorcycles for the benefit of Harley Davidson, which admitted that superior Japanese management was the cause of its problems.(42)
-- Raised tariffs on Canadian lumber and cedar shingles.
-- Forced the Japanese into an agreement to control the price of computer memory-chip exports and increase Japanese purchases of American-made chips. When the agreement was allegedly broken, the administration imposed a 100 percent tariff on $300 million worth of electronics goods. This episode teaches a classic lesson in how protectionism comes back to haunt a country's producers. The quotas established as a result of the agreement have created a severe shortage of memory chips and higher prices for American computer makers, putting them at a disadvantage with foreign competitors. Only two American firms are still making these chips, accounting for a small percentage of the world market.(43)
-- Removed Third World countries from the duty-free import program for developing nations on several occasions.
-- Pressed Japan to force its automakers to buy more American-made parts.(44)
-- Demanded that Taiwan, West Germany, Japan, and Switzerland restrain their exports of machine tools, with some market shares rolled back to 1981 levels. Other countries were warned not to increase their shares of the U.S. market.
-- Accused the Japanese of dumping roller bearings, because the price did not rise to cover a fall in the value of the yen. The U.S. Customs Service was ordered to collect duties equal to the so-called dumping margins.(45)
-- Accused the Japanese of dumping forklift trucks and color picture tubes.(46)
-- Failed to ask Congress to end the ban on the export of Alaskan oil and of timber cut from federal lands, a measure that could substantially increase U.S. exports to Japan.
-- Redefined "dumping" in order "to make it easier to bring charges of unfair trade practices against certain competitors."(47)
-- Beefed up the Export-Import Bank, an institution dedicated to promoting the exports of a handful of large companies at the expense of everyone else.(48)
-- Extended quotas on imported clothespins.
Tariffs.
So let me ask you a question - Why must it be that every “trade deal” we have must work to OUR disadvantage? You seem to accept as the normative result that other countries SHOULD have the upper hand on us. Is that the way you prefer the situation to remain? Do YOU have a solution? We are getting our asses handed to us, and nobody in the establishment (who crafted all these “great” deals seems to give a damn at what is being done to the American worker.
All true, but what would you have the next president do to change this?
Your asking a Free Traitor™ to go against his religion. They would completely gut the USA’s manufacturing infra structure and industrial knowledge base to prove a point. And once its gone, it’s gone. We become China’s bitch.
I don't agree that any trade deal should ever work to our disadvantage -just as I assume that every other country on the planet feels similarly.
But the question remains, what are you prepared to do differently?
Your = You’re
I'm glad you understand that.
The question, again, was "What are you suggesting that the next president do about that?"
Bear in mind that "tariff" is another word for "taxation."
A 45% tariff on imports would raise almost 500 Billion in revenues and virtually balance the budget. Another thing, a tariff is optional whereas income taxes aren't.
The sick situation in the USA; where the citizens are charged an income tax on the fruits of their labor but our markets are open to any country in the world. Sick sick sick.
And would benefit those in manufacturing (particularly the owners of manufacturing) at the expense of everyone else. Prices on everything you buy that has some component that was manufactured outside the US (which is virtually everything) would go up.
As we Republicans are so fond of pointing out when arguing against corporate taxes, corporations don't pay taxes -consumers do.
The exact same is the case with tariffs. The kind of thinking that you are advocating has already been tried once. The result was the Great Depression.
I am going to go out on a line and assume that you are backing Donald Trump. There is a lot to like about the man and his candidacy. But he has never, ever, worked in a manufacturing business.
My brothers usually vote Democrat, but neither is a leftwing progressive by any measure. They are moderates. You are underestimating how unlikeable many people find the Republican Party. One of my brothers generally thinks the Republicans are against the little guy in favor of big business. That is why he voted for Obama (although he did vote for W. over Kerry). There are still some good, hardworking people sympathetic to many of our views in the Democratic Party. Their last remnants need to be broken free from the Democrats and that party can then become the pure party of Cultural Marxist progressives and their various dependent victim groups.
Yes the market would look for domestic sources. A good thing. If none exist then they would be built form scratch. Even more economic good news.
This is true because the opposite is true.
But he has never, ever, worked in a manufacturing business.
On the present course pretty soon no American ever will.
The exact same is the case with tariffs. The kind of thinking that you are advocating has already been tried once. The result was the Great Depression.
Smoot Hawley didn't start the Depression or make it worse. That lie has been disproven long ago.
Have they picked a country to defect too? May i suggest a Muslim one or north korea. Having 20% fewer dims in this country would help a lot.
I don’t want to get involved in your argument, but I do want to point out that Trump is not proposing a straight up 45% tariff on Chinese imports. He’s proposing using that as a threat that he believes will cause them to quit devaluing their currency and thereby make trade and prices more equitable between China and US. It would be cheaper for them to make their trade fairer in regard to US goods than to pay high tariffs, so Trump doubts he would even have to impose the actual tariff. He discussed this on the Fox Business Network:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQZ47EyQ9-Q
For the record I’ve never been a TRUMP fan until now. Never cared for the man for several reasons. The first being he believes himself to be the greatest thing since sliced bread. However, he knows how to succeed and be profitable. I’ll set aside my dislike for the man if in doing so this country can begin anew with a clean slate and all the trash cleaned out of the federal and state government buildings. The only expectation I have has been accomplished. I wanted him to flip his hat into the ring due to his personality and media exposure. He had his time, his business and tee vee reality show (which was never watched, personally) but it did have everyone talking. Ok, he did have a phone conversation with Bill C before deciding, but in all fairness he had a one on one meeting with Sarah P and another with Ted Cruz before deciding as well. I like Ted Cruz and believe to turn this puppy around he will be needed for his expertise. However, he is not the flamboyant man to whom voters would be drawn and with the MFM coverage being what it is, most voters would never hear the message. It seems with TRUMP in the picture, Ted was able to build his base and campaign with little media coverage needed to defend himself and his conservative beliefs.
So, over all TRUMP has already served his purpose. Look where we are today. I’ll be first to agree w/you and say that TRUMP has opinions which are not shared here. But he has (as you are fully aware) many that people across the country understand and find themselves agreeing with him. He is able to cross boundaries which otherwise would never be crossed. He is bold, brazen, and unafraid which makes him the perfect warrior to a nation that has had no leader in a mighty long while.
Just one last comment, I trust him to the degree that he loves this country as much as I. He wishes to keep that America to pass on to his children and grandchildren. He is wealthy, but would that make it less certain that he wouldn’t attempt what the Clintons have done in the past?
Would he break the laws for whatever reason if he found it the fastest way, only way to get things done? I certainly don’t know. That is the reason Cruz is needed to become a yang to the yen. Will we agree with every decision made by him should he win the race? LOL, probably not, but chances are he wouldn’t point and poke his finger at us; tell us we were not being fair and we are not Americans for failing to agree.
I’m ready to give the guy an opportunity to show his stuff, and Que sera sera.
Thank you for your summary as to New York. I understand NY-ers to some degree. Worked in an office full of NY for 30 years. It was rough going in the beginning not due to politics but to the language, north/south accents persons in a region acquire. We are ALL Americans and want what’s best for our country!:-))
If you have been paying attention to business news over the last week, what China "chooses" to do with their currency is irrelevant for the foreseeable future.
With that being said, I cannot repeat this enough to those who do not appear to comprehend it:
Protectionism (tariffs) is good for manufacturers and precisely nobody else. It sound like a good idea because it appeals to our sense of nationalism, but it is always taxation, plain and simple.
“You are underestimating how unlikeable many people find the Republican Party”
I don’t think I’m underestimating anything. I have an issue with a candidate, like Trump, that lacks conservatives principles and is therefore as appealing to democrats and liberals as many of the democrat, left-wing candidates.
Even those democrats that voted for Obama and are now disillusioned are only confirming my claim because those dems were easily swayed by Obama’s empty rhetoric and now appear to be swayed by Trump’s fraud game.
I prefer a stalwart conservative, like Cruz, that holds conservative values above pandering and party loyalty. I don’t care if the dems or moderates see Cruz as too conservative and don’t like him because of it. I won’t trade my principles for a chance to win because even if we win, we still lose.
You are living in the fantasy land of inserting optimistic long term solutions into your scenario.
In the short term, everyone but the government has less money to spend and workers are out on the street because the companies they worked for had their supply chain interrupted.
However, I believe in giving credit where it is due, so if you want to argue that tariffs were not the only cause of the Great Depression, I will agree. Unfortunately, if you are saying that the fact it was a significant contributor is a "lie has been disproven long ago," you are back in fantasy land.
I don’t know - you’re the “answer man,” so you tell me ... If I knew, I would perhaps be running for office.
What I do know is that I am beyond tired of seeing America get repeatedly shafted up the wazoo. I am tired of paying good money for imported Chinese CRAP - the costs of which equal or exceed what I used to pay for American-made goods manufactured with “union labor.”
I am forced to purchase useless junk at the same cost for which I used to pay to own quality goods that actually lasted several years. I’m tired of the fact that EVERYTHING now available in this country is a Chinese or Mexican or whatever clone of what used to be reliable name brand products!
I’m tired of even my food coming from some Communist s**t hole.
I’m tired of not being able to find one product made in the USA - even American Flags are now made in freaking China or Mexico!
I’m tired of seeing so many Americans without a decent job.
I’m tired of stagnate wages that have not gone up in near two decades, while the value of my dollar has been cut by 75 percent in that same amount of time.
I’m tired of changing careers over and over again b/c nothing is stable any more.
I’m tired of the lying political weasels who continue to sell America up the river for a buck, so to line their own pockets or that of their cronies in crime.
I’m tired of the establishment do-nothings that make up 99 percent of the political ruling class, and whose favorite pastime is lying to my face while they destroy everything around me - from our culture, to our manufacturing base, to our currency.
I am fed up with ALL of it ...
I am angry enough to chew lead and spit bullets!
You say I may not like everything he does ... Fair enough - and I could make the same judgment upon any other candidate the Republicans field. BUT ...
At this point the only man I see who has the balls to waylay these lying treasonous punks ... Who is not another limp-wrist Mr. “prim and proper” Queensbury Rules butt-kissing wuss is Donald J. Trump.
I’ve been screwed so many times by the political class, what’s one more?
If this go-around does not work out, well you better have kept your powder dry, because its going to get real serious real fast.
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