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Beyond Iowa, Cruz Betting Heavily on the South
Texas Tribune ^ | Jan. 11, 2016 | Abby Livingston

Posted on 01/11/2016 7:52:23 AM PST by Isara

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek)
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek)
WASHINGTON — In the more than 200 events he's held since launching his campaign for the White House 10 months ago, Ted Cruz has tested out an unorthodox strategy, one that could rewrite the rules of Republican presidential politics.

Since the Texas senator declared his candidacy in March, 40 percent of his public events have taken place in Iowa, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of his travel schedule as of Saturday. But beyond that first-test state, Cruz has held nearly a quarter of his campaign events in the so-called “SEC primary" states, a mostly southern mix of states that will host their primaries on March 1.

That breaks with tradition in GOP primary fights. In the past, presidential candidates poured almost all of their resources into Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, the three earliest primary contests. 

While other candidates are increasing their focus on those March 1 states, Cruz appears to be pursuing that strategy more aggressively, according to several people who have been following the campaigns.

“I haven’t seen anyone focus on the South the way that Cruz has,” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.

Heye said that's a reflection of Cruz's keen understanding of the changes to this year's primary schedule. Republicans have added three southern states — Alabama, Arkansas and delegate-rich Texas — to the March 1, or Super Tuesday, lineup, while subtracting a handful of northern states. The net result is increased nominating power concentrated in the South at a pivotal point in the primary schedule. 

"We certainly have had Super Tuesdays before, but the way this lines up with the scheduled states in play and where a particular candidate could have a very strong day with a very strong impact has all come at the same time," Heye said.

The Texas Tribune assembled a database of 241 Cruz campaign events: 235 he has appeared at since launching his bid for the White House, and a handful of events scheduled in the future. That count only includes candidate forums, debates and campaign-sponsored events open to the press. It does not include private fundraisers or events Cruz attended in his official capacity as a U.S. senator. 

Nothing illustrates how much is riding on Iowa for Cruz more than his travel schedule. The senator spent about 40 percent of his time on the trail in the Hawkeye State, everywhere from book signings to church services to a stop at a tractor store. Only 25 percent of his trips have taken him to New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina, the next three states on the primary calendar.

...

Cruz made more campaign trips to Des Moines, Iowa's largest city, than anywhere else in the country. But he's also made multiple trips to smaller communities that campaign officials view as pivotal to performing well in the state's Republican caucus. On Saturday, Cruz completed a six-day bus tour of Iowa with stops in 28 towns, including his fifth visit to Sioux City, a conservative bastion that helped deliver a 2008 caucus win to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.  

That focus has paid off: He is now the frontrunner in Iowa with less than a month to go before the Feb. 1 caucus.

Recent history has shown that an Iowa win does not assure a Republican nomination. The last Iowa victor to secure the GOP nomination in an open race was George W. Bush in 2000. Cruz and his team are open about their aim to replicate the long game Democrat Barack Obama successfully deployed against Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 Democratic nomination fight. 

After the Iowa caucus and subsequent contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina comes March 1, when any Republicans left standing will compete for 624 delegates across 12 states, compared to the 133 delegates up for grabs in the earlier states.

Cruz has held 24 percent of his events thus far in March 1 states — Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming. Cruz signaled his focus on those states early on by kicking off his campaign with a speech at Liberty University in Virginia. He has since made at least one stop in nearly all of those states.

It’s a tactic that many Republicans are beginning to say might carry Cruz to the general election. 

"If Cruz is able to do really well in the SEC primary, with the rationale that his campaign has talked about privately and he has talked about publicly," said Heye, the former RNC staffer, "this would go a long way with him getting the nomination.” 


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Alaska; US: Arkansas; US: Georgia; US: Iowa; US: Massachusetts; US: Minnesota; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: Oklahoma; US: South Carolina; US: Tennessee; US: Texas; US: Vermont; US: Virginia; US: Wyoming
KEYWORDS: 2016election; alabama; alaska; arkansas; canadian; cruz; dixie; election2016; georgia; groundgame; ineligible; iowa; massachusetts; mikehuckabee; minnesota; nevada; newhampshire; newyork; oklahoma; redstates; secprimary; south; southcarolina; southernvote; supertuesday; tcruz; tedcruz; tennessee; texas; thesouth; trump; trumpwaswrong; vermont; virginia; winitall; winning; wyoming
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To: Isara

It's the rage these days,
so lets all play Conservative Review Checkers,
the Cruz vs Trump classic.

REFERENCE

41 posted on 01/11/2016 12:17:48 PM PST by DoughtyOne ((It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.))
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To: TXDuke

“Registered Republicans, which are the only ones able to vote in the TX primary, are overwhelmingly supporting Cruz right now from everything that I’ve seen (local polls, signs, comments, etc).”

You’re in for a rude awakening, lol. You don’t have much of a feel for your own state, do you....


42 posted on 01/11/2016 1:46:36 PM PST by flaglady47 (TRUMP ROCKS)
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To: flaglady47

“You’re in for a rude awakening, lol. You don’t have much of a feel for your own state”

This coming from someone from Chicago???

I think I have a pretty good idea of what is going on in Texas, but thanks! Of course, it helps if you’re actually a Texan too!

You know the same people that claimed Debra Medina would win in a landslide are the same online folks claiming that Trump will win. Medina didn’t even get 20% of the primary vote and I doubt Trump will either.

Cruz is extremely popular among conservatives in TX and has his entire ground game in place for years. Trump has nothing in comparison. Nice try though!


43 posted on 01/11/2016 1:56:57 PM PST by TXDuke
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To: TXDuke

“Cruz is extremely popular among conservatives in TX and has his entire ground game in place for years. Trump has nothing in comparison. Nice try though!”

We’ll see, won’t we. We’ll see. One of us will be right. Too bad it won’t be you, lol.


44 posted on 01/11/2016 2:00:31 PM PST by flaglady47 (TRUMP ROCKS)
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To: flaglady47

Yes, we will both see that I’m right, but try not to be too disappointed when Trump barely hits 20% in Texas. Cruz will win in a landslip with over 50% of the primary vote.

That just shows you know very little about Texas politics.


45 posted on 01/11/2016 2:05:24 PM PST by TXDuke
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To: TXDuke

It’s interesting to me that you say that about never meeting a Trump supporter in person.

When you come on Free Republic every day and when you see the polls, you start getting the impression that everyone is madly for Trump.

But during the holidays I was surprised that family members who are relatively conservative don’t like Trump.

It’s not just a mild dislike, it’s utter disgust and revulsion. They hate the man.

I was surprised. I know it’s anecdotal but it was a bit of an eye-opener to me.


46 posted on 01/11/2016 2:17:46 PM PST by altura (Cruz for our country)
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

People here should be made aware that you consider Levin a “loathsome prick.”

Have any other Trump supporters criticized you for it yet?


47 posted on 01/11/2016 2:25:49 PM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
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To: Boardwalk

-— I said Trump was trying to help Cruz from the start. -—

I believe you. And it’s always a good laugh line.


48 posted on 01/11/2016 2:28:17 PM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
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To: demshateGod

“If Cruz is able to do really well in the SEC primary”

If I win the Powerball tonight. :-)


49 posted on 01/11/2016 2:30:53 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: altura

I’ve seen the same thing. All of my family, friends, church members, co-workers, etc. and nobody seems to like Trump and none of them have met anyone that likes Trump either.

It is weird because you would assume, by the polls, that everyone loved him, but it seems, on the ground, that liberals and libertarians (aka liberal lites) support Trump, but conservatives do not.

MANY conservatives do despise Trump because they know he is very liberal and flip-flopped during the last 2 years on EVERY policy stance that he has held for over 30 years. Trump is a salesman and is just saying what dull people want to hear so that he can get the job in 2016 because in the 2012 election, the people weren’t buying his traditional liberal stances. Texas conservatives are not fooled by Trump.

I personally think it is the liberal media trying to prop Trump up in an effort to try and destroy Cruz since Cruz is our only real conservative candidate.

I mean really...Trump complains about an ABC moderator so they immediately dump the moderator. Every other Republican candidate has made the same complaints for the last ten election cycles and the media ignores them. This just shows that Trump and the media are working together and since the mainstream media ONLY works with liberals, that just provides more evidence that Trump is a liberal in sheep’s clothing.


50 posted on 01/11/2016 2:36:44 PM PST by TXDuke
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To: TXDuke

My brother just visited from Houston and said no one there likes Ted Cruz, so I guess it depends on who is in your circle of friends.


51 posted on 01/11/2016 2:59:40 PM PST by GeaugaRepublican (Angry yes, mad, no.)
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To: GeaugaRepublican

“My brother just visited from Houston...”

The cities generally vote democrat anyways, which is why they wouldn’t like Cruz, so I would not take much stock on what people in the cities say. The suburbs and rural areas are the conservative centers of Texas and always vote in the republican primary and that is what will matter.


52 posted on 01/11/2016 3:04:11 PM PST by TXDuke
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To: Isara

That silly polka-dot graph you post constantly is ridiculous. For example, Trump’s 2A policy is better than any other candidate, with his national concealed carry idea.

Cruz’s Speechwriter and Communications Director, Amanda Carpenter, works at Conservative Review. So of course, there is no bias there. /s

And that you say to contact some outside group if we do not like the ratings is you just trying to deflect responsibility that YOU are posting this simplistic hogwash over and over.



53 posted on 01/11/2016 3:07:14 PM PST by CottonBall
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To: CottonBall

As well as Trump’s position on abolishing ‘gun free zones’ nationally.

I saw Cruz today. 1,000 people in Louisiana at a hotel. All traditional conservative Christian audience. Was well received. He’s certainly got enthusiasm within his base.

I’d love to see Cruz win or be on the Supreme Court. My concerns are he can’t get 20% of the Democrat voters, much black vote, and the GOPe wouldn’t give him money to run the general election.

But he’s an asset to the party - as are ALL of our candidates. We really have a great field. The DemonRats have an old hag, rape enabler that’ll likely be indicted and an old Soviet-era Socialist.


54 posted on 01/11/2016 3:28:09 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

“...and the GOPe wouldn’t give him money to run the general election.”

Ohhh, that explains it! I’ve been trying to figure out why the GOPe wants to get rid of Trump because they dislike Cruz just as much. They either withhold cash or make a deal/expect RINO-capitulation for the cash. With Trump, they get no such option.

Yup, I am thrilled to have 2 top candidates including deportation in their plans. It wouldn’t even be discussed if it weren’t for Trump though ;)


55 posted on 01/11/2016 3:34:57 PM PST by CottonBall
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To: TigerClaws

>>The DemonRats have an old hag, rape enabler that’ll likely be indicted and an old Soviet-era Socialist.

Don’t you mean “rape enabler AND VICTIM ABUSER”?

His victims say she headed up the Bimbo mitigation team.


56 posted on 01/11/2016 4:04:24 PM PST by Right-wing Librarian
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To: sickoflibs

The current situation is that there is no question that Sen Cruz is a NBC under Title 8 section 1401 subsection G of the US Code.

Any challenge or suit would have to challenge current US Law and current SCOTUS interpretation that a person who is a US citizen at birth is a naturally born citizen.


57 posted on 01/11/2016 4:14:19 PM PST by taxcontrol ( The GOPe treats the conservative base like slaves by taking their votes and refuses to pay)
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To: Right-wing Librarian

She condoned his 7 visits to orgy Island on the Lolita plane! If there was ever a case, this one is bad.


58 posted on 01/11/2016 4:35:53 PM PST by Boardwalk
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To: Right-wing Librarian

Yup,and an old hag.


59 posted on 01/11/2016 4:37:20 PM PST by Boardwalk
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To: Isara

Manu Raju (CNN) @ mkraju
Jeff Sessions, immigration hardliner, believes the “consensus” is that Cruz is a natural-born citizen. But cautioned that he doesn’t know

Rut-Roh, Teddy Boy...


60 posted on 01/11/2016 4:39:42 PM PST by newfreep (TRUMP & <S>Cruz</S> 2016 - "Evil succeeds when good men do nothing" - Edmund Burke)
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