Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
Yeah.
Article calling Trump a bigot and racist, reading FR members calling Trump and his supporters fascists. (Yes that happened here on FR.)
VS
Phyllis Schlafly Makes the Case for President Trump: “Only Hope to Defeat the Kingmakers”http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382220/posts
Phyllis Schlafly Makes the Case for President Trump: “Only Hope to Defeat the Kingmakers”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382132/posts
Let me see, agree with illogical and irrational rabid anit- Trump “conservatives”, even here on FR, or agree with Phyllis Schlafly. Hmmmm. That is a tough decision.
Like the thread “Trump says NK leader amazing”. No he didn’t, Trump said his ability to execute a takeover at such a young age is amazing. Trump said the guy is a maniac. So why are so called “conservatives” mis-representing what Trump said?? Is it a mistake because they can’t follow simple conversation? Or is it deliberate?? Either one is a logical fatal flaw.
Ignore the other polls!!!
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll (1/11), released over the weekend, offers little hope to the Republican establishment, waiting for its presidential nominating race to change. Here are the latest preferences from Hawkeye State Republicans:Same results as the Fox poll.1. Ted Cruz: 28%
2. Donald Trump: 24%
Trump's brilliant birther strategy has fallen flat.
Cruz will look presidential at the 1/14 debate. Trump will look like... Trump.
Trump will NOT choose his sister. He already said so. The aborted baby part sales made a huge impact on him last year.
His favorite justices are all anti-Kelo. It just so happens that anti-Kelo is anti-Roe. But he’s trying to focus more on border safety and ‘Art of the Deal’ trade-diplomacy.
And Roberts is ‘a huge disappointment’ according to Trump.
They will be defensive and angry, as they always are.
;-)
Polled 411 names from the phone book.
Phyllis Schlafly is amazing. Some great Freeper turned me on to the The Barry Goldwater 1964 Campaign 50th Anniversary Forum. We are watching history repeat itself.
If you have 9 minutes watch from 6:10- 15:39 of this video with Schlafly describing how the establishment of the Republican Party takes out grassroots candidates. This is really timely...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q_pbiFiKC8
“And Roberts is ‘a huge disappointment’ according to Trump.”
Traitor is a more accurate description.
More pearls.
Polls don’t really help much in Iowa. The caucus system is so crazy it’s impossible to tell before caucus night who will win. Ground game and organization are everything. we could see another Huckabee win and it would be as meaningless this time as it was last time. Who knows?
Yep, I agree.
Cruz has managed expectations in Iowa poorly.
The story coming out of Iowa is never who won, but who exceeded expectations.
Most smart candidates play down their chances of winning Iowa for that very reason, so that the story coming out of Iowa will be how they exceeded those expectations.
This is even more important with Trump, because ALL the news coverage by the “professionals” has from day ONE been that his poll numbers will NEVER translate into votes.
This is the PERFECT set up for Trump. EVERYONE on TV is saying his supporters will NEVER turn out, that his poll numbers are meaningless, that he has no organization, no insider support, no ground game, that the size of his crowds doesn’t matter, ect, ect...
When the votes are actually tallied and Trump meets or even better possibly exceeds all expectations, you wont here a single other thing discussed in politics but Trump for weeks.
My guess is that Cruz supporters wont give up until Texas votes.
You have made my point beautifully!!!!! THANKS!
Wow that is a must watch. It should head a stand alone thread.
Nothing is a sure thing until after the vote. :-)
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You got that right. Four years ago lawsuits by democrats kept Texans from voting until the end of May. Mighty slim pickins for conservatives by that time. We just want to see real conservatives on the ballot we can actually vote for in March.
More news in this is twofold:
1. Christie, Fiorina, and Kasich have very few numbers, many categories with ZERO.
2. The Carson split of African Americans with Trump. I interpret it to mean that African Americans think Carson is on his way out of the race.
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