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Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you
The Washington Post ^ | 1/9/2016 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 01/09/2016 5:24:06 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

When people find out I am a political reporter, they usually have only one question for me: "Donald Trump can't really win this thing, can he?" My answer is always the same these days: Absolutely he can.

The reason is simple: Trump is the national front-runner, yes, but he is also ahead in a two key early states -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- and a strong second in Iowa, the state that kicks the whole presidential process off on Feb. 1.

Could he totally collapse from that position? Sure. As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote -- meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang's argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee. Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bfac; democrat; election2016; gopprimaries; iowa; newhampshire; newyork; nomination; southcarolina; trump; trump2016; win
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To: Daniel Ramsey

Gotta say he put out 20k tickets for a small arena in Burlington VT ( Moscow E).
Read Steynonline.com, he was there.


21 posted on 01/09/2016 5:51:33 PM PST by acapesket (all happy now?)
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To: Ajnin

I think we need a benevolent dictator.


22 posted on 01/09/2016 5:51:53 PM PST by Fhios (How about we call it a a war on sharia law?)
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To: Ajnin

Totalitarian? What do you call Barry “Executive Order” “Pen and Phone” Sotero-Obama


23 posted on 01/09/2016 5:56:46 PM PST by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: mkjessup

Perfect.


24 posted on 01/09/2016 6:00:27 PM PST by Souled_Out (Our hope is in the power of God working through the hearts of people.)
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To: iowamark

I agree!


25 posted on 01/09/2016 6:02:35 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I love JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me! Thank You, JESUS! (1 John 4:19))
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To: deport
laws have to honored and Congress does have a lot of input be it good or bad.

Not the last 7 years.

26 posted on 01/09/2016 6:03:16 PM PST by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life, Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

It's the rage these days,
so lets all play Conservative Review Checkers,
the Cruz vs Trump classic.

27 posted on 01/09/2016 6:03:39 PM PST by DoughtyOne ((It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.))
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To: Ajnin

Just what we need a totalitarian.
_________________________________________

I see this posted occasionally and I am curious where it comes from?


28 posted on 01/09/2016 6:05:24 PM PST by Amntn ("The only special interest not being served by our government is the American people" - Donald Trump)
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To: DoughtyOne

Wow! Nice!!


29 posted on 01/09/2016 6:05:41 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I love JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me! Thank You, JESUS! (1 John 4:19))
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To: Steely Tom

Hussein is swearing in new voter citizens by the thousands even now. That will accelerate through the spring and summer. He seems to be concentrating in states that have small Republican majorities.


30 posted on 01/09/2016 6:05:58 PM PST by arthurus (Het is waar. Tutti i liberali sono feccia.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

So, according to this guy, people in Iowa and New Hampshire don’t pay attention to the campaign until 30 days out. The people in these two states must have retreated to caves and treehouses since June.


31 posted on 01/09/2016 6:06:02 PM PST by euram
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To: iowamark

After BHO was elected and re-elected anyone on earth is eligible and can be elected to the Presidency of the United States.


32 posted on 01/09/2016 6:06:54 PM PST by arthurus (Het is waar. Tutti i liberali sono feccia.)
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To: Red Steel

What does Dick Morris have to say on this? If he predicts that Trump will win then it is over for Trump. He will not win. Conversely if he predicts that Trump will lose then get ready for President Trump. The Morris Prediction record only missed once in a couple of dozen firm predictions since 2000 and maybe before then. I wasnt paying attention before 2000.


33 posted on 01/09/2016 6:10:02 PM PST by arthurus (Het is waar. Tutti i liberali sono feccia.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Cruz is pinning EVERYTHING on Iowa. And Iowa could not be more meaningless. Meanwhile Cruz is nowhere in NH.


34 posted on 01/09/2016 6:10:36 PM PST by montag813
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To: mkjessup
Putin likes him!

Without a strong America in the World Russia faces a China with millions of excess young men that it has to get beyond its borders all the while Russian population is declining.

35 posted on 01/09/2016 6:12:42 PM PST by arthurus (Het is waar. Tutti i liberali sono feccia.)
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To: montag813

I’ve noticed that too. Maybe he believes if he wins Iowa that NH will swing his way too. I don’t know...


36 posted on 01/09/2016 6:15:50 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I love JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me! Thank You, JESUS! (1 John 4:19))
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

“:^)


37 posted on 01/09/2016 6:20:02 PM PST by DoughtyOne ((It's beginning to look like "Morning in America" again. Comment on YouTube under Trump Free Ride.))
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To: iowamark

Most of Trump’s support are Democrats, Rush Limbaugh confirmed what we have been saying for months last week.

A lot of them are only seeing Trump because of his celebrity, and won’t actually vote for him.


38 posted on 01/09/2016 6:20:40 PM PST by American Constitutionalist (Trump is the pawn and creation of the Media and Political Establishment)
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To: euram

lol


39 posted on 01/09/2016 6:24:21 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I love JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me! Thank You, JESUS! (1 John 4:19))
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To: Ajnin

What the hell has been in office for the past 7 years, a Constitutional pillar?


40 posted on 01/09/2016 6:25:27 PM PST by Rebelbase
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