New Iowa Poll Shows Trump with 31-26% Lead over Cruz

Overtime Politics ^ | 12/14/15 | Fred

[BigEdLB]

The Iowa Republican Caucuses are about 6 weeks away and 3 candidates are firmly positioning themselves to be among the handful left standing after Super Tuesday. Donald Trump still maintains a significant lead over Ted Cruz by 5 percentage points (31-26%), while Marco Rubio rounds out the 3 candidates with double digit support at 13%.

[Vision Thing]

This is more concise than my reply #140. :)

[Vision Thing]

That's because the media are buying it for him (Trump) with free air time at the expense of the proven conservatives as opposed to this charlatan.

Although the msm has influence, I think you're overestimating it in this unique situation with Trump.

Trump is a master of generating news that benefits his campaign. Cruz and everyone else in the GOP doesn't.

To illustrate this, consider the reverse of the situation, namely, the the media ignores Trump by talking negatively about Cruz everywhere and at all times.

Do you really think Cruz has The Right Stuff to benefit from this in the same way Trump has done so far?

Be honest with yourself when answering this question.

[Vision Thing]

My post 140 was intended for Carry_Okie’s #137, not your #138. Sorry for the confusion. :)

[Georgia Girl 2]

:-)

[trisham]

How can this be? Fox News reported this morning that Cruz and Rubio were “surging”.

[Carry_Okie]

Trump is a master of generating news that benefits his campaign. Cruz and everyone else in the GOP doesn't.

Methinks this a tautological contention.

Do you really think Cruz has The Right Stuff to benefit from this in the same way Trump has done so far?

I never implied that he did. I think Cruz more tactical than strategic in his thinking. In doing so he often forgets the political feedbacks that can undo his intentions, of which both the TPA and Corker Bill votes are exemplars. The other major character flaw is that when he does change his position about something he should express his repentance and say so. It would both show character and curtail the speculations as to his real intentions.

[GilGil]

I did not say they will be president.

The nominee will be either Trump or Cruz though.

[newgeezer]

Ah,, those Trump leads in Iowa don't mean anything. His supporters are a bunch naive newcomers to the Iowa system and few of them will even bother to show up at the caucuses. They don't understand how it works. Trump doesn't stand a chance in Iowa.

I suppose it depends on how much the Trumpsters know about the caucus process. Should the campaign prepare them, or not? Those who know it takes the whole evening, are they willing?

Maybe it's better they don't know. Then, once they show up, how willing are they to let the neighbors see them walk out because they can't bear to miss Big Bang Theory?

[WalterSkinner]

..my guess right now: Cruz wins Iowa, DT wins New Hampshire and NV and Cruz takes S. Carolina—someone will break out on Super Tuesday...

[WalterSkinner]

strike that—looking at wrong schedule. The breakout could be Feb 23

[BigEdLB]

In the last two SC polls, Trump is +2- over Cruz. If the other votes turn out as you suggest, how will Cruz overtake Trump in SC?

[WalterSkinner]

..just a guess, like I said. Polls change almost hourly. Will it be the influence of Lindsey Graham or Bob Jones in SC? If DT runs the table leading into Super Tuesday, it's pretty clear he's going to be difficult to beat. If he and Cruz are fairly even, Cruz could get on a roll and take it.

[BigEdLB]

In the last two SC polls, Trump is +20 over Cruz. If the other votes turn out as you suggest, how will Cruz overtake Trump in SC?

Sorry about the typo. My post didn't make sense

[WalterSkinner]

..you may have it right. SC in the past has been extremely conservative, but this cycle may be very different. Alot of people are angry enough to vote for someone who isn’t ideologically conservative—interesting times for the political junkie...

[Vision Thing]

So you’re willing to admit that if the media would switch their negative all-encompassing attention from Trump to anyone else, including Cruz, this new target would be unable to get the same poll results from it as Trump has done?

[Carry_Okie]

So you’re willing to admit that if the media would switch their negative all-encompassing attention from Trump to anyone else, including Cruz, this new target would be unable to get the same poll results from it as Trump has done?

Wrong modality.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi

[Vision Thing]

Trump — and no one else during this election — is proving your Gandhi quote correct.

[Carry_Okie]

BS They never ignored Trump.

He's their boy.

[Vision Thing]

I’m ignoring the ignore part and jumping straight to the laugh-fight-win part. That’s Trump’s fulfilment of your gandhi quote.

[Carry_Okie]

I'm ignoring the ignore part and jumping straight to the laugh-fight-win part. That's Trump's fulfilment of your gandhi quote.

Therefore it's not a fulfillment. One must excerpt, twist, and fantasize to believe that it is, which certainly fits a Trump lemming. One must ignore a lot to believe that Trump will do what he says he will do.

Trump on Syrian Refugees: 'Hate the Concept' of Letting Migrants In, But 'You Have To'

Trump on illegal aliens: Going to have to go out and they will come back but they are going to have to go out and hopefully they get back.

I play to people's fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal, 1987

I don't see how one can believe him on anything.