Posted on 12/17/2015 3:27:31 PM PST by BigEdLB
The Iowa Republican Caucuses are about 6 weeks away and 3 candidates are firmly positioning themselves to be among the handful left standing after Super Tuesday. Donald Trump still maintains a significant lead over Ted Cruz by 5 percentage points (31-26%), while Marco Rubio rounds out the 3 candidates with double digit support at 13%.
(Excerpt) Read more at overtimepolitics.com ...
HEard some female pundit yesterday, on Fox I think predict the following:
Cruz will win Iowa
Chris, “Obama hugging” Christie will win NH
Cruz will win SC
Rubio will win Nevada
After that Trump will quit.
IF Trump loses Iowa, then it tells me that it’s a state that means nothing in the scheme of things. Santorum, Huckabee? I don’t think even REagan won here.
Cause I’m with you. How can a guy bring in huge crowds time after time after time in Iowa, have the best people with him, and lose?
I mean, it’s the guy who has the most people showing up at the caucus in each precinct, right?
So, you might be strong in one precinct and not the others?
It’s the most people voting for you right? So, if you have the most votes you win that precinct and the person who wins the most precincts wins?
Can someone explain this? NH and the other states, it’s just who has the most votes state wide, right?
I read this post and thought it was mine. I said the exact same thing earlier this am....:-)
Yeah, they matter - but the way socons present themselves and conduct their campaigning equals electoral disaster.
I understand voting your conscience, hang the consequences, let it burn. I used to specialize in that.
But, the Boss told his disciples two important things: 1) "My kingdom is not of this world", and 2) That they were volunteering for social and possibly physical suicide.
This time around, it's save the nation or screw it. Two clear choices. Only one choice, IMO.
Having both move up means the rest of the field will be not so much. :') Thanks BigEdLB.
Needs, no. Wants, absolutely. The MSM is a bottomless pit of greed for power. After all, power to control public opinion is all they have for sale. Democratic socialism concentrates power, increasing their leverage. Pitching despotism to Republicans is red meat for them.
Jeb Bush 5%
A sympathy ‘surge’?
Disclaimer: I’m not that familiar with the Iowa Caucus procedure so take anything I say with a grain of salt.
George W Bush did win the Iowa non encumbent caucus in 2000. There are some 1774 caucuses now covering the 99 counties allocated on population/voters I believe.
The process starts at the precinct level, proceeds to the county level, then state level and finally the convention level. As in any state population spread candidates maybe popular in one caucus area and not so much in another.
I think there are some 17 or 18 caucus states/provinces and the rest are popular vote. There are some 7 or so provinces/territories include such as: Guam,Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Washington DC, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
Yeah, I don’t buy this either. Forget the polls. Look at the states voting HISTORY which is essentially unchanged regardless of who’s running.
Iowa will choose the most evangelical of the candidates. This time, that’s Cruz by a long margin. He will win Iowa - most pundits will call it an “upset of the front runner” and I’ll just yawn and say I told you so because smarter than 90% of these idiots doing the “job”.
NH and SC will define where the race heads.......
Exactly. That’s less than the population of my home town in NJ. It’s an absurdly small amount of people. Which is why Santorum, and Huckabee before him, tanked after Iowa.
My comments were tongue in cheek.
Just having a little fun.
He’s not going to spend that much money on buses etc.
For one thing, having grown up in MN, right next door to IA, spending that much money to get people to the caucuses would backfire.
Most voters would see that as utter desperation, or the moves of a very foolish candidate.
IA is Trump most ‘foreign’ campaign field, and he’s made many blunders in how he talks to them, the things he says, and the things he does. I’ve cringed more than once.
However, he still is far and away the best candidate, I hope Iowans can see past the blunders he’s made while trying to connect with them
Ted Cruz 26%
Marco Rubio 13%
I want Trump to win almost as much as I want Rubio to lose...
“He’s going to have to start campaigning at some point...”
Are you paying attention? What do you call 4 yuge televised rallies per week? LOL!
I didn’t take you as meaning he’d spend it all in Iowa. My original point was that he’d need to spend a lot more in Iowa on transportation to the caucuses than 300k, if his goal is complete transportation needs of all trump supporters. But that he could easily afford it if he wanted to do it.
The GOP candidate with the largest war chest is Jeb Bush with about $125 million. Your boy Cruz has about $52 million. Trump has about $362 million cash in his bank account. He isn’t going to likely need more than $50 million of it and I’m being overly cautious. He may only need $20 million to wrap up the nomination. Then he has $340 million left to kick Hillary’s azz with along with whatever he gets from the RNC.
Trump has already said he’s willing to drop a $1 billion on his campaign. He won’t have to because he’s a celebrity and he gets all the free airtime. Sucks to be everybody else. But if Trump didn’t get the airtime he would just buy it.
Nothing is going to change even though you are upset about it. Trump is going to get covered 24/7 by the media for free. He will continue to dominate the social media and he will continue to draw yuge crowds to his rallies because he has a message that resonates with the Republican, Independent and many Democrat voters. That is why soon Trump will be the GOP nominee for President. He also has more than enough money to battle it out although at this point who is there to battle? Cruz and Rubio will still be duking it out for a distant second place when the voting starts. Too late at that point.
For the thousandth time, Cruz is not "my boy." I don't have one yet. He has some character flaws that I regard as potentially catastrophic, one being that he is more clever than wise.
He may only need $20 million to wrap up the nomination.
That's because the media are buying it for him with free air time at the expense of the proven conservatives as opposed to this charlatan.
When Trump runs to the center, you'll be off yours. Dizzy won't describe it. "Shock" will be a better word. After all, he made his money in a market rife with organized crime.
“That’s because the media are buying it for him with free air time at the expense of the proven conservatives as opposed to this charlatan.”
Apparently the “proven conservatives” just are not that interesting or the MSM would be “buying” (giving) them free airtime.
Here is you lesson for the day: Life is not fair. :-)
Although the msm has influence, I think you're overestimating it in this unique situation with Trump.
Trump is a master of generating news that benefits his campaign. Cruz and everyone else in the GOP doesn't.
To illustrate this, consider the reverse of the situation, namely, the the media ignores Trump by talking negatively about Cruz everywhere and at all times.
Do you really think Cruz has The Right Stuff to benefit from this in the same way Trump has done so far?
Be honest with yourself when answering this question.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.