Posted on 12/13/2015 5:33:04 AM PST by GonzoII
Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are the top two candidates Iowa Republican caucus-goers say are the most qualified to handle the top two issues facing the country -- the economy and national security.
That gives them front-runner status in a new Fox News poll of Iowa likely caucus-goers.
The poll, released Sunday, also finds Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by double-digits among Democrats in the Hawkeye State.
Cruz garners 28 percent support and Trump 26 percent among GOP likely caucus-goers. Together they command more than half of the total support. Rubio comes in third with 13 percent. Carson, the Iowa front-runner in October, is fourth with 10 percent. Those four compose the clear top tier.
Five percent back Jeb Bush and Rand Paul. All other candidates come in at two percent or less.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
...this will be the third poll in 48 hours that certain people will insist is fraudulent.....
It’s another one of those polls with a skewed sample set....”likely caucus goers”. Trump has to up the ground game and get out all of the unlikely Republican caucus goers.
The story is via bloomberg, I'll post the link...
Trump has brought in brand new caucus goers that may not be reflected in these polls. It will be up to him to get them to the caucus.
It's not a bellwether, nor is it definitely non important either. When a tiny niche candidate wins Iowa, like say Santorum or Huckabee, it's meaningless because they are folks who will never go above their tiny niche. Both Trump and Cruz have support across the spectrum, excluding the hard core establishment types - so if they come out of Iowa 1-2 in whatever order - it's significant.
Things changed dramatically in the last four weeks in Iowa last go round....mainly fueled by the six against one (Newt) ad blitz. Who knows if something like that will happen this time around. But I could see Cruz winning Iowa and Trump winning NH, and then it's all about South Carolina, which it often is.
While we should never put too much stock in polls, these recent polls are showing a good trend for Cruz. If supporters of a certain candidate want to not believe the validity of these polls then it’s their decision.
The Trumpets will continue to deny the implosion. So be it.
Anyone that would even THINK of voting for Hillary! should seek help. Really.
Only time will tell.
Cruz does need to win Iowa in terms of momentum that will help him in New Hampshire, where a win will be tougher.
An Iowa win sets Ted up for South Carolina later in February and the southern states that follow March 1st and March 8th.
True, and the other issue is that polls are not necessarily predictive....a poll may be dead on accurate today, but the caucus is what, 60 days out? - things often change in Iowa.
It seems obvious that Trump and Cruz are both strong in Iowa. Trump has shown staying power, and Cruz' people have been saying for weeks that they were picking up big momentum in Iowa - even before the polls reflected it. Thus I think it's highly likely that they are 1-2 in this state in whatever order. With 3 of the 4 showing Cruz the leader, I could believe that.....whereas I was skeptical when it was just the one.
I believe Cruz is ahead, but this FOX poll is the more accurate and reality based.
True, if Cruz wins Iowa, he can survive whatever oddball crap the little out of touch cross over electorate does in New Hampshire.....and go into SC with momentum. If Trump wins NH, which seems plausible, he will also go into SC with good momentum.
SC setting up to be crucial, as is usually the case.
Iowas always goes for the RAT. Shame they have this hold on GOP primaries.
Disagree. Seltzer/Des Moines Register is the gold standard for polls in Iowa. She's the only one that accurately saw the Ernst rout of Brantley in the 2014 Senate race.
Not to say things won't change between now and the date of the Iowa caucus. There should be at least one more Register poll between now and then.
HAH, well I wouldn’t call it an implosion.....but it remains funny how the Des Moines Register is somehow a liberal rag while CNN is suddenly reputable...how some polls are GOSPEL while others are TRASH.
Magical thinking on the part of some around here....:)
Here are a couple of links to earlier postings of the DMR/Bloomberg
poll posted yesterday late.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3371855/posts
400+ replies
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3371863/posts
Link to detail poll data
https://www.scribd.com/embeds/293112953/content
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.