It’s another one of those polls with a skewed sample set....”likely caucus goers”. Trump has to up the ground game and get out all of the unlikely Republican caucus goers.
The story is via bloomberg, I'll post the link...
Anyone that would even THINK of voting for Hillary! should seek help. Really.
There was an article on this pollster at the same time this poll was emerging. She was written up to be quite on the mark, in the story, and she described her method as a mix of old and new technology, also as harder to do today than it use to be, but that if you hire her she will do the best she can given the changing technology and the mobility of voters.
She has been so spot on that she is revered up to now, and reportedly other polls often tend to deny her findings, but she, in the end, is spot on.
They give only two examples of that, but suffice it to say it was a puff piece on the pollster, leading up to the release of the poll, lest you want to argue with it.
If only it were not so universally known that the Register hate, hate, hates Donald Trump, the results would be more acceptable to *sundance, at The Last Refuge.
The poll may wake up the Trump support in Iowa, because regardless of the results, it did read that over 60% are still open to voting for another candidate. That was across the board among all candidate supporters. Iowa remains VOLITILE according to this poll.
I win either way!! Either would be such an improvement over our last 2 candidates and incomparably better than our current empty suit potus. .
The Iowa caucus is no bellwether and is not a predictor of future primary success.
Even though I side with Trump, it would awsome if Cruz wins this straw poll:
Trump attacks Ted Cruz for not supporting ethanol subsidies
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3371645/posts
While I support Trump, I really hate ethanol subsidies and MANDATES.
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Most importantly, it is a sham that artificially raises gas prices and strains the food supply ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3365989/posts
“...A 2008 study published in Science magazine found that corn-based ethanol increases greenhouse gas emissions instead of reducing them. A 2009 study concluded that plowing fields to grow corn for ethanol could release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than ethanol offsets...â€
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Even Jay Leno hates it:
Jay Leno hates ethanol
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3266647/posts
There have been a lot of old-car fires lately ... Here’s one reason: The ethanol in modern gasolineâ€about 10 percent in many statesâ€â€is so corrosive, it eats through either the fuel-pump diaphragm, old rubber fuel lines or a pot metal part, then leaks out on a hot engine¦ and ka-bloooooie!!! [snip]
Ethanol will absorb water from ambient air. In a modern vehicle, with a sealed fuel system, ethanol fuel has a harder time picking up water from the air. But in a vintage car, the water content of fuel can rise, causing corrosion and inhibiting combustion. [snip]
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Cruz denounces boost in ethanol during Q-C stop (Quad City, IA)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3366851/posts
“... it shouldn’t be Washington picking winners and losers ... corporate welfare ...â€
Another fake poll. The anti-Trump conspiracy widens...
(Trump supporter here) There is no reason not to believe the polls, even though they may be wrong, especially when more data points validate the findings statistically. Sure, Selzer has a great reputation in Iowa, and her poll should be listened to even when it purports a result different from the others, but she has gotten races wrong before, and I tend to believe it is less reliable before election day in any event.
Anyway, right now, the combined recent polls suggest a statistically tied race between Cruz and Trump in Iowa. Arguably, the initial Cruz surge in Iowa occurred before Thanksgiving, and it is possible a further surge is occurring right now, both in Iowa and nationally.
For Cruz to win, he was probably always going to need to win Iowa to get the nomination (same goes for Carson) because he has almost no chance of winning in NH given his coalition. Similarly, Trump probably needs to win NH, but that goes for a whole host of other candidates (which is part of the problem for those candidates).
Personally, I’ve never seen how Trump gets more than 25% in Iowa without changing the turnout model because the state’s electorate should not be favorable to him (as opposed to NH or especially SC). That being said, he has certainly retained his support in Iowa for many months, which is at least 20%. This suggests they are unlikely to move away from him in the future. It also means, given the number of candidates, a likely 2nd place finish at worst.
One last thing: the Cruz coalition is different than the Carson coalition, even though there is overlap. I would not make the assumption that the remaining Carson voters will naturally go to Cruz should they leave him. Carson is also close, IMO, to being a dead duck (I would have argued that he had no chance in the beginning, unlike Cruz), but he is not dead yet, especially in Iowa.
Those that have preferences need to consider getting off the pot and starting to ante up if they want to have some say in the deal instead of spewing a lot of words while other operate the controls...
Now for a short public service announcement to all on FR:
We need to ensure we don't get another Obama-like America Hater as the next President.
The best way to ensure that is to actively support a candidate as the next President.
I prefer Cruz and my money goes to his campaign, hence the Cruz link. If you like someone else, donate to him/her (find your own link to do it) and if you use FR and don't donate, then please don't complain about the welfare leeches or those who have Obama Phones because, functionally, you are no different than any other FReeloader
PS - If you are one of those who cannot afford even a small donation to FR or a candidate, God Bless and happy FReeping!.....
GO CRUZ!! Keep it up Trump!!
Sounds about right that Cruz is winning now. The person who wins Iowa usually cannot win. See Saint Rick, Huck. A nice moral victory for Cruz supporters if they pull it off in Iowa.
Now this poll is pretty much in line with where I think things are in IA (10 points is beyond silly). And it’s more or less where Carson was before the media decided that, as #1, they needed to open fire on him.
Will vote for Cruz or Trump. As long as they are on top I may be able to “endeavor to persevere”.
Believe Trump would be best able to shake things up as he has the ability to speak directly to the people. However, Cruz is a brilliant person who can be great if he can overcome the constant attacks from the press and GOPe especially congressional leadership.
Keep in mind Iowa usually picks the loser in the generals.
I predict that Trump will lose Iowa then say something along the lines of “people from Iowa are idiots” which will come back to haunt him later.