The story is via bloomberg, I'll post the link...
I believe Cruz is ahead, but this FOX poll is the more accurate and reality based.
Here are a couple of links to earlier postings of the DMR/Bloomberg
poll posted yesterday late.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3371855/posts
400+ replies
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3371863/posts
Link to detail poll data
https://www.scribd.com/embeds/293112953/content
GO CRUZ!
The Vander Plaats video interview at the top of that page is great too. He says Cruz has the opportunity not just to WIN Iowa but to DOMINATE Iowa. He says he feels voters will have an “easy choice” if Cruz debates Hellary and that he will win the general election. He also says Cruz is successfully straddling several “lanes” in the primaries, including the libertarian lane, GOP grassroots conservative wing and the evangelical pro-family lane. And he says unlike Huckabee and Santorum, Cruz has the money and organization to handle these surges in the polls and build on them.
Vander Plaats does say that Iowa is really down to Trump and Cruz, with Rubio being the one who has an outside chance.
If you look at the timeline for the RCP average for Iowa what jumps right out at you is that Cruz is inheriting essentially all of the Carson votes as Carson falls in the Iowa polls. If Carson continues to fall and that trend continues then Cruz will look like a cinch winner in Iowa.
But a further Carson fall is hardly guaranteed. There will be a bottom. If so it could easily be close between Trump and Cruz on Feb 1.
Right now the Bottom and Top for Trump looks like it will stay in the range around 25%. He has been very consistently in that range. It seems to me that unless something dramatic happens (good or bad) that is where Trump will end up.