Posted on 10/06/2015 5:37:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If all you’re interested in is the topline then this is the best poll for Trump in weeks. Only once since the second GOP debate had he reached as high as 26 percent in a national poll — until today. He’s still 10 points better than his closest competitor here. And although he’s dropped two points, from 29 percent to 27, since PPP published its last national poll on September 1st, no one else except for Marco Rubio has gained more than two points in that time either. Rubio picked up six points to move from fifth place to third this time, another sign that he’s emerging as a center-right alternative to Jeb but not as some sort of juggernaut who threatens Trump. Yet.
As I say, that’s the good news for Trump fans. The other news in today’s poll is … not so good:
He’s had a 14 point drop in his net favorability rating over the last month from +26 at 56/30 to now just +12 at 50/38. And he’s lost ground in head to head match ups with the other leading GOP contenders. The only one he leads is Bush by 20 points at 56/36, although even that is down from his 25 point advantage at 59/34 last time. Last month he led Rubio (50/42) and Fiorina (48/41) in head to heads, now he trails them 50/43 and 47/45 respectively. And what was already a 49/43 deficit to Carson one on one has now grown to 52/41. But perhaps the worst blow for Trump may be that GOP voters don’t think he’s as rich as he says is. Only 30% believe his net worth is over even 5 billion dollars to 55% who think it’s below that threshold. For the most part people aren’t buying his 10 billion dollar claim.
I’ve been watching his numbers in PPP’s head-to-head contests for weeks on the theory that they probably tell us more about Trump’s real strength in the race than even the topline numbers do. At some point the primaries will in fact become a two- or three-candidate race and voters who are backing other candidates right now or are otherwise undecided will have to make a choice. If forced to choose between Trump and Rubio or Trump and Fiorina, will they stick with the guy who’s currently leading the polls? A PPP poll of North Carolina in August showed Trump trailing numerous Republican rivals head-to-head even though he led the overall field at the time. But then, a few weeks later, things had changed: Trump actually led various competitors head to head in PPP’s national poll of September 1st, suggesting that GOP voters really were starting to think of him as a viable nominee even after the field inevitably winnowed. Today’s poll turns all of that around, placing Trump behind Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina, with only sad-sack Jeb Bush still less attractive to GOP voters than Trump is when given a binary choice.
What’s more, if you scroll down to page 12 of the crosstabs, you’ll find that supporters of nearly every other GOP candidate reliably break against Trump when he’s pitted against Carson, Fiorina, or Rubio. The only exceptions are Rand Paul’s and Rick Santorum’s supporters, and they might be hard to gauge accurately given how small those samples are. Supporters of Ted Cruz, who’s spent months complimenting Trump, prefer Carson to Trump by a margin of 75/17, prefer Fiorina by a margin of 71/24, and prefer Rubio by a margin of 59/30. Even Trump’s ostentatious hawkishness on immigration can’t woo Cruz fans away from Rubio, in other words. The suggestion here is that there’s strong “Anyone But Trump” sentiment among the majority of voters who aren’t already supporting him, exceeded only by “Anyone But Bush” sentiment. (Jeb’s favorable rating is a gruesome 34/49 among Republicans generally and 26/56 among “very conservative” Republicans.) Trump either needs to turn those numbers around or he needs to hope that the field stays unexpectedly large throughout the early primaries, allowing him to win as the majority splinters among other candidates and he builds up irresistible momentum. Any early shrinking of the field to just a few credible alternatives and he’s got a problem, at least if today’s trend holds.
Worth noting, by the way: Chris Christie has turned his own gruesome favorable rating among Republicans in September (28/54) into a semi-respectable 43/38 rating now. That’s what a pretty good debate can do for someone. Three weeks and counting until the next one.
FioRINO drops 2 points to 6%.
Of course his favourable drops with every network trashing him 24/7, the masses take it all in, so sad that they are so dumb.
Cruz at 7%. That’s disheartening.
Wait a minute. I've heard it written numerous times that whenever the networks trash him, his favorables go up.
The big unknown is what happens when the marginal candidates start dropping out. Where will their supporters go?
Right now, I'm not seeing a path to him getting the nomination this year. But he's only 44 years old and he'll have other opportunities. Perhaps a key role in a Trump Administration will increase his appeal with the rest of the American people.
So according to the MSM Trump should drop out of the race, right? He’s only leading in every poll.
Ted just really never moves up much in the polls.....don’t know if he will ever get any traction at this point.
Yes it is. I think his views are the nearest thing to Ronald Reagan that I have seen in years.
Dumb? Maybe. Ignorant and intellectually lazy? Definitely.
Maybe if he had an American sounding name it would help. Most people probably think he is an illegal immigrant.
Very interesting...thanks. The drops in Trumps favorable ratings is, IMO, due to his personal attacks on the other candidates. If he isnt the nominee he has pledged to support that person....
Im not sure I agree with this report’s conclusion concerning the other candidates “rising”.
Maybe to a candidate that hasn't been trashing their guy?
It is a personality thing. He is saying the right things, but they come off very tasseled loafer and with a whiff of condescension. That may not be a fair impression, but that is the impression videos give to many.
I like what he says and could vote for him, but he has yet to convince me he can cut enemy throats down to the neck bone and then reach for another.
I don’t want a ballistics expert. I want a gunslinger.
Does Cruz carry? Trump does.
Cruz may carry, but he gives the impression he would hire it done. That is his problem. He seems aloof, effete and haughty whether he is in fact or not.
I do not think Cruzites like me answer the phone.
His favorables are also dropping because some are running ads against him (Club for Growth) and he hasn’t even launched an ad campaign yet.
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