Posted on 07/21/2015 7:12:54 AM PDT by iowamark
One analyst thinks former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) is the clear front-runner to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist at the Potomac Research Group, now pegs Bush's odds of winning the nomination at 50%. That's up from the 35% odds Potomac gave him in June.
"His campaign has stabilized after a terrible spring slump," Valliere wrote in a research note.
Bush has been leading most Republican polls of the race, but has faced an insurgency in recent weeks from real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who doubled Bush's support nationally in a poll released Monday by ABC and The Washington Post.
But Valliere, like most analysts, eventually expects Trump to flame out: He gives him a 0% chance of winning the GOP nomination. However, he thinks there's a 35% chance he'll run as a third-party candidate, which would make him the Republican Party's "worst nightmare."
"We've been (sort of) amused by this buffoon, but there was nothing funny about Trump's ugly demagoguery this weekend. He's toast," Valliere wrote, referring to Trump's remarks questioning Sen. John McCain's (R-Arizona) status as a "war hero."
Here are the full odds for Republicans, per Valliere:
Bush: 50%, up from 35% Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 25%, the same as last month US Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida): 20%, down from 30% last month Someone else: 5%
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
And you can't find any video of anyone who is excited about Hillary!, either.
The stage managers have casted their drama with actors nobody wants to see.
Sucks to be them.
That’s 50% too much.
Sure he does.
If Consevatives split across six or seven or eight or ten candidates, Bush will cruise to the nomination with 20% of the primary vote. Similar to how McCain and Romney did.
Conservatives need to be looking only at Cruz and Walker right now. I like what Trump is doing, and appreciate it, but don’t think he’s going to last except as a spoiler.
If we focus on Walker and Cruz, see how they perform on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire and most importantly South Carolina, and coalesce around the better overall one right after SC, the GOPe gets to shed tears, but doesn’t get the nomination.
It's very discouraging that so many FReepers are obsessing about fundraising prowess as a surrogate for electoral success.
The media lives on that revenue stream. It's no surprise that they are constantly pimping the "money primary", since that's their income for the next 15 months.
The McCarthy campaign in NH in December 1967-February 1968 ran on no money. Dave Brat beat a guy who raised millions.
All it takes is balls, volunteers, and a message.
Well, all the Trump nonsense is making this scenario more and more likely. Trump is now the anti-Jeb, and because he sucks all the oxygen out he leaves none of the other potential opponents any room to get their message to the public.
And if it came down to Jeb and Trump for the nomination, Jeb would win easily. It's not that people particularly like him, its just that the majority of Republican voters will be long tired of "the Donald's" self promoting blather.
Don't listen to Hillary!, eh?
Trump is sucking the oxygen away from Jeb and is essentially in the place the establishment GOP had reserved for jbush. jbush is not “just another” wanabe.
The media is desperate to protect jbush and are journ-o-listing a fake religious controversy talking point. (the rush montage will come forward)
JBush has only 13,000 or so actual money supporters. It is all smoke and establishment mirrors.
Trump knocking out jeb is a net positive to the primary process. We don’t need another McCain candidate. (he did not even understand “joe the plumber”)
A well lead populist conservative leaning party that promised close the borders and stop illegal immigration would make the GOP the third party.
I’m just not seeing Trump as hurting Bush that much Trump’s drawing support from people who are looking for a no holds barred, bare knuckle candidate who is willing and able to fight.
Thats not Bush’s constituency at all. Those are probably mostly people who would go for Cruz, which is why Cruz is playing really nice with Trump.
There is no way that someone should be able to "win" a primary election with less than 50% of the vote.
In a final election with an office at stake, a first past the post system may be reasonable. But primaries are a system for awarding delegates, they are not dispositive elections at all.
Ah the election is a year away and it is possible that mickey mouse could win the nomination at this point..........
So, Trump being involved has the desired effect.
The ONLY reason I give ANY credence to this at all is that the Dems have no one that anyone currently or on the horizon but their fringe will vote for. Granted, their ‘fringe is a near majority for them...
But a good number of Dems, IMO will go with someone more inline with their ‘mainstream. That’s Jeb Bush.
I think his name will be outweighed by the fanaticism of the “Black Lives Matter” types and they will like most liberals, go with the lesser evil. The GOP is fully in line with the pre Obama Democrat philosophy and he shares many positions openly with a portion of the current Dem orthodoxy so crossover is very likely.
Jeb’s nocturnal emission.
“Cheb! has a 50 percent chance of winning the nomination, which means he still has a 100 percent chance of losing the election. “
Guaranteed to lose.
“But a good number of Dems, IMO will go with someone more inline with their ‘mainstream. That’s Jeb Bush.”
I never considered this, but it makes sense.
If Bush is the nominee, it will show that the GOP elite have learned absolutely NOTHING from the loss by McCain and Romney. If you alienate the Base and most Conservatives, you cannot win, period, end of story.
We need a REAL conservative, like Walker, not a Wall Street moderate!
the effete drive by media was stating today that if Trump goes third party he pulls 20% of the vote, jbush gets 2_ of the vote and Hillary wins.
The bottom end of the candidate pool were ALWAYS a waste of time and are there to pad their respective pacs with money from suckers.
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