Posted on 07/09/2015 6:09:00 PM PDT by Din Maker
Donald Trump has been inching upward in the polls lately, and now we finally have one from The Economist and YouGov showing him in a clear first place.
"Trump supporters may be making more of a statement than voting for someone they consider a contender," Kathy Frankovic writes at YouGov. "Just one in five of Trump's supporters think Trump will win the nomination." Other tidbits Frankovic points out are that Trump's supporters tend to back the Tea Party and to identify as "very conservative," and are less likely to be college-educated.
The new poll is probably a bit dispiriting for Jeb Bush, though. He had gotten a small bump to first place in three national polls conducted after his June announcement, and his team clearly hoped this would finally let him break away from the rest of the large field. Now, though, he's down at 11 points, tied for second with Rand Paul. This new poll could be an outlier, or it could be the first sign that Jeb's announcement bounce has worn off. (Bush's fantastic fundraising news should help with any disappointment he feels, though)
But Trump's 15 percent is not a particularly impressive performance in a crowded field — Bush, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Mike Huckabee have all hit or passed that number in at least one poll. Also, Trump hasn't yet led any polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, which are generally more important than national polls. Still, it's national polls that are being used to determine which candidates qualify for the first GOP debate, and Trump clearly makes that cut at this point.
But the big question about whether Trump will show up on stage in Cleveland on August 6 isn't about his polling — it's about whether he'll actually turn in the required financial disclosures to the FEC. As Slate's Josh Voorhees writes, many are skeptical that Trump would publicly disclose so many details of his "business empire." It's up to Trump to prove them wrong.
<<< In a race between Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, I would crawl across a mile of broken glass to vote for Trump. >>>
Me too, but my support is behind Sen. Cruz.
If Cruz is the GOP nominee, Trump will NOT run as an Indy. He really likes Cruz. Cruz was the only GOP candidate who stood up for Trump over the “Mexican statement”.
Now we know what Beldar looks like with hair.
“Rocketing to first in the polls sure does it :-)”
Certainly time will tell, but Trump has been an announced candidate for what, 3 weeks, and he can move the needle this much in that short period of time. But perhaps the most invaluable near-term service he’s provided is “smoking out the GOPE turds!” And chief among those he’s damaging, hopefully fatally, is Boosh.
I will write in Thomas Hoefling
I agree with you. Jeb is not fired up for the race to be President.
In 1 word, Likability.
I don’t get how Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee are ahead of Cruz.
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I can answer that for you in two words: Donald - Trump. Trump is getting a lot of Ted’s support. He’s been in the forefront of the news and Ted is not real visible right now. That’s how.
Third Party. He’s likely to be the GOP nominee.
I agree. He said so much today. “it depends on who the nominee is”.
We’ll wait and see what the debates can do, I like Trump because he is just annihilating the field right now. If Huckabee and Carson were to fall in polling I imagine most of that support would go to Cruz.
Right now, the Donald is blowing everyone away. As of now, he’d get the nomination, depends on who can unseat him.
Unbelievable!
He’d get the nomination as of now, he gave a speech a few years ago where he dropped F-bombs. I don’t judge him harshly in this but he might be a bit of a loose cannon too, I think what can undermine him could be he himself.
And Wallace helped to elect Nixon in 68.
The Economist? Subscriptions of that periodical are bought by NYC hipster douchebags for the sole purpose of placing it on their coffee table every week to make themselves appear intelligent when they are having all their hipster douchebags in Clark Kent glasses over for quinoa-kale soup.
He is a shoe in if he stays on message, big if.
And, in addition to Reagan Democrats he'll win the Latino vote.
Latino CITIZENS, like everyone else will respond to leadership.
And NOBODY can reasonably debate whether Trump is leading.
He has ALREADY take the country in a new direction.
I’m not sure yet if I’d vote for him, but I do know exactly why he is in the lead:
He is NOT a politician!
And the thinkers and doers of this country are SICK of politicians.
I will not vote “lesser evil” any more.
I have no real affinity for the GOP, for sure.
It’s too late for a third party in this election. There is no time to meet all the mandates in each state to run as a 3rd. You either vote for him or you don’t. The primary is the place. We need to unite on one candidate.
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