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McConnell suddenly in trouble? Not so fast.
Hot Air.com ^ | October 7, 2014 | JAZZ SHAW

Posted on 10/07/2014 8:24:22 AM PDT by Kaslin

I woke up this morning to a seeming tidal wave of polling news for the midterm elections, all of which is bad for Republicans if the cable talking heads are to be believed. At the top of the list of trumpeted GOP disasters in the making was a new poll out of Kentucky which suddenly showed Alison Lundergan Grimes with a two point lead over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

After two polls in his favor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has slipped behind Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in his re-election bid, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state, now leads the five-term senator 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, the survey found. Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3 percent support in the poll, while 7 percent of likely voters said they were undecided.

While Grimes’ advantage is within the poll’s margin of error, it represents a 6-point swing to the Democrat since the survey was last conducted in late August.

After the lessons learned in the great disaster of 2012, we should all be wary of yelling about the polls being skewed, but this one clearly invites a deeper look. This race was never going to be a blowout, particularly given the amount of discontent which McConnell faces from inside his own base, but at the same time, Grimes has never been able to build a substantial set of numbers in the Bluegrass State which showed a clear path to victory. How did the voters do such an about face in the space of a few days?

Jeff Dunetz beat me to the punch and dug up the facts which I suspected were behind it. This poll is directly contradictory to two other reliable trackers conducted in the same period.

The Bluegrass poll certainly looks very different than other polls, in fact every time the Bluegrass has done a poll it has looked like an outlier. Below is a list of every poll in the Kentucky Senate race per “Real Clear Politics.” Notice that out of the 4 polls showing Grimes with the lead three were conducted by Bluegrass.

Check out Jeff’s post for the chart, but the numbers speak rather loudly. Through this cycle, only the Bluegrass poll seems to generate these results. Even with these numbers mixed in, the RCP average still has McConnell up by 4.2% (not far off from the average we’ve seen over the past month or two) and the CBS/YouGov poll taken in the same period – which shows a number of other Republicans in trouble – has Mitch up by 6.

Dunetz also notes a difference in methodology which should be taken into account.

The methodology of the Bluegrass poll is different than the others and that might account for the difference. It is a “robo-poll,” without human interaction. mode. Per the polls methodology page:

This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically.

These numbers are looking blatantly dubious at this point. Even Ed Kilgore – who will dance on the grave of any conservative as soon as they develop a case of the sniffles – tossed out the word outlier in his coverage before making it two paragraphs into the analysis.

This race will still wind up being close, I’m sure. But Ms. Grimes shouldn’t start ordering new drapes for McConnell’s office just yet.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: 2014senate; alisongrimes; demoncrats; mitchmcconnell
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To: dware

But this is not the President, the only executive there is. This is one of X number of Senators or Y number of representatives.

Since any governance at all, even if conservatives were to win a majority of the republican numbers, would be dependent on their having a majority of the house or senate. If I have 53 seats in the Senate, then that gives me a majority. But if I have only 33 of those seats being conservative, then I can get good things done, but I do have to have the other 20 seats voting with me most of the time to make my majority work.

I’m sure you see that it’s different with the presidency than with a legislature that requires a majority, since we don’t have a parliamentary system.


41 posted on 10/07/2014 11:34:28 AM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: what's up
What's really your beef? Your guy did poorly in the primaries?

My 'beef' is the fact that the R's had the House, Senate & WH from 2000-2006 (a majority I fought very hard for, in a number of ways) and got the Patriot Act and a legacy of bailouts, all of which are now being wielded by Obola to the detriment of the Country.

I get it. I know what you're saying, and I even slightly agree. Ultimately, however, we're headed the very same direction with both the R's and the D's. The D's will simply get us there sooner, which is fine by me. I'm prepared. I'm ready for the coming storm. It won't be easy by any means, but it is entirely necessary. It's time for a real "reset" in this country.

And, if you really think voting in the RINO's (there may be Conservatives in important positions, but ultimately, McConnell the traitor will lead and set the tone) is going to scale back OCare, reduce spending, deal with the border crisis and get America back on track, I've got news for you. OCare is now entrenched in this country, and it ain't going anywhere. It CAN'T go anywhere.

Immigration? Well, let's see, McConnell voted FOR amnesty multiple times, and AGAINST the border fence on at least one occasion. Why do you think it will be different when he's majority leader? Sure, he voted AGAINST OCare, but then promptly voted FOR funding it. He only voted against it because he knew his vote wouldn't matter. If he was truly interested in making a difference, he, along with every single other R in Congress, would have voted AGAINST funding it.

42 posted on 10/07/2014 11:44:31 AM PDT by dware (3 prohibited topics in mixed company: politics, religion and operating systems...)
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To: DugwayDuke

You really believe that? How many of Clinton’s supreme court nominees did the Republicans deny when they ran the senate in the 1990’s? NONE.

McInsain, Graham and the Maine hags have all stated the president won and gets his picks for the courts. I hate to break it to you but the Republicans are not going to do anything to stop obama’s nominees to the Supreme Court.


43 posted on 10/07/2014 11:56:57 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: txhurl
Hell, county clerks have command-line access to voting totals.

So, you're saying it don't matter who we vote for? Kinda what I been saying all along, really. We're headed the same direction no matter what. Best rip the bandaid off quick and get the pain over with, rather than drag it out slow and painful like. Plus, I'm getting old. I won't be able to put up half the fight in a few years that I could now. It's time to rip the bandaid off.

44 posted on 10/07/2014 12:03:15 PM PDT by dware (3 prohibited topics in mixed company: politics, religion and operating systems...)
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To: RipSawyer
"No Republican has anything in the bag now, there is far too much vote fraud."

So true, but McConnell is a Rino, and as such has proven, as recently as the primaries, to have mastered the liberal, communist, democrat art of voter fraud.

45 posted on 10/07/2014 12:03:55 PM PDT by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: dware
It's time for a real "reset" in this country.

We have already had our "reset". We allowed an elated Obama to get control of the levers and now we will have to send more military to die in the Middle East. It amazes me that you would allow such a person to get even MORE power. 4 million conservatives sat out the last election to get your "reset". How's that working out?

McConnell the traitor will lead and set the tone) is going to scale back OCare, reduce spending, deal with the border crisis and get America back on track

You have the ridiculous idea that McConnell will be all powerful. You forget that conservatives like Sessions, Inhofe, and Cruz will have more power in a GOP Senate. Do you know the impact a Inhofe controlled Environment Committee will have with its power to call anti global warming advocates? Thousands and thousands of jobs will be created when Keystone is approved.

Why do you think Cruz is campaigning for the GOP to take over. To get rid of Reid and his committee chairs is huge.

46 posted on 10/07/2014 12:03:55 PM PDT by what's up
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To: what's up

Those committees mean absolutely nothing when the president does what he wants regardless of the law and Congress. The gope has made it clear that they will not impeach so their chairmanships mean little because the president will simply go around them and they won’t use the prescribed remedies under the Constitution.


47 posted on 10/07/2014 12:06:10 PM PDT by sarge83
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To: what's up
4 million conservatives sat out the last election to get your "reset". How's that working out?

So you know, the 'reset' hasn't happened - yet.

To get rid of Reid and his committee chairs is huge.

And the R majority 2000-2006? How's that Patriot Act working out for ya?

48 posted on 10/07/2014 12:11:48 PM PDT by dware (3 prohibited topics in mixed company: politics, religion and operating systems...)
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To: RipSawyer

I agree with the effect, but not with the cause.

I no longer believe there is widespread vote fraud. Some? Yes. Enough to swing close elections? Yes. Enough to swing marginal elections where Dem lawfare commandos parachute in to conduct just enough recounts to win? Yes.

But widespread? Nope. Reason is that the Dems don’t need to. Read the Breitbart article on Romney’s Orca system, and the PJMedia one on Catalist.

Big Data rules and the Dems have unlocked the key to getting close to 100% of their “must vote” voters to the polls. To the point where they can completely disregard the political center. Republicans lag far, far behind.

This is what I think may be at work in KY. McConnell should win by 5 points or so. Close, but it’s probably his last race so good enough.

Grimes’s strategy right now seems to be based solely on driving up McConnell’s negatives. Denying him independents but also failing to pull centrists over to her. Basically she’s suppressing independents, trying to turn the race into a battle of base turnout. If she knows she can use big data to generate above normal midterm turnout in places like Louisville and Lexington, she knows she’s got the race in the bag.


49 posted on 10/07/2014 12:12:04 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: sarge83
Those committees mean absolutely nothing when the president does what he wants regardless of the law and Congress.

Not so. In concert with Chairmanships in the House we will have legislation that makes it all the way to Obama's desk instead of Reid blocking it.

The GOP will attach items which will put Obama under pressure to sign. He will sign Keystone because even unions want it. That alone is worth a GOP Senate.

The gope has made it clear that they will not impeach

Untrue. If Obama continues to act in an extra legal way and the country gets sick enough of it he can be impeached. It is impossible to impeach when Reid is presiding over the Senate; removal could NEVER happen. Your chances go WAY up with a GOP Senate so this goes directly against your point.

50 posted on 10/07/2014 12:14:54 PM PDT by what's up
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To: tanknetter

“use big data to generate above normal midterm turnout”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I don’t have a clue what that means.


51 posted on 10/07/2014 12:15:26 PM PDT by RipSawyer (OPM is the religion of the sheeple.)
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To: what's up

All obama will do is threaten to shut the government down and the surrender by the GOPE will break the French Army record easily. Give him what he wants or shut down and you know how McConnell feels about shutdowns, he prevents them.

And I do not believe for a second any GOPE person that says they will impeach, it will not happen.


52 posted on 10/07/2014 12:18:11 PM PDT by sarge83
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To: dware

Would you proffer your own advice to fighting men on the battlefield? In any way? Gotta lot of corrupt lieutenants, if we win the fight, those lieutenants might rise to General?

You DO realize there are conservatives that are chomping to neutralize the GOPe, don’t you?

Ya can’t win if you don’t fight.


53 posted on 10/07/2014 12:19:26 PM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: dware
So you know, the 'reset' hasn't happened - yet.

It has actually. More people are out of the workforce now than in the 40's. Massive new social welfare gaining power. Our troops have to go back into Iraq.

Those 4 million got us here. And they intend to take us down further and give even MORE power to Obama with Reid's help who will expand the Government even more and remove power from the Congress. Next time you again will be saying "we need yet ANOTHER reset".

Your viewpoint is very wrong.

54 posted on 10/07/2014 12:20:05 PM PDT by what's up
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To: sarge83
Give him what he wants or shut down

You ignore the fact that people aren't believing what Obama says anymore. The public tide is changing and you are refusing to take advantage of the move.

I do not believe for a second any GOPE person that says they will impeach

To impeach you need the public on your side. AND you absolutely need a GOP Senate to even have a shot. If Obama keeps screwing up royally and dangerously and a GOP that gains ground it could happen.

55 posted on 10/07/2014 12:25:03 PM PDT by what's up
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To: tanknetter

Correct, Big Data rules.


56 posted on 10/07/2014 12:33:12 PM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: txhurl
You DO realize there are conservatives that are chomping to neutralize the GOPe, don’t you? Ya can’t win if you don’t fight.

The only thing the GOPe is going to listen to is the sound of millions of voters doing their patriotic duty and walking away from the R's. I HAVE been fighting, for 20+ years, alongside folks who have been fighting even longer to 'neutralize the GOPe'. Here's a clue: it ain't gonna happen.

57 posted on 10/07/2014 1:11:13 PM PDT by dware (3 prohibited topics in mixed company: politics, religion and operating systems...)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Wouldn't it be great if O'Keefe interviewed a McConnell supporter and caught him saying that Mitch was going to get elected and then **** Obamacare?

Grimes would never use it because nobody on any side would ever believe it.

58 posted on 10/07/2014 2:35:56 PM PDT by Theophilus (Be as prolific as you are pro-life.)
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To: Kaslin

That leftist Rhymes with Punt is gonna lose, whether the “We hate Mitch Club” likes it or not.


59 posted on 10/08/2014 8:35:04 AM PDT by Impy (Voting democrat out of spite? Then you are America's enemy, like every other rat voter.)
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To: RipSawyer
“use big data to generate above normal midterm turnout”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


I don’t have a clue what that means.


Sorry, just noticed your reply now.

What I'm talking about are large databases that the Dems have that they use to micro-target on an incredibly granular/small level.

Here's a good article on Catalist, one of the databases they have. Really scary stuff in terms of how much information on people it sucks in (and from where), and then how that can be used to maximize voter turnout in the most efficient and cost-effective way possible. Worth reading every word of the 3-page article ...
60 posted on 10/08/2014 5:30:35 PM PDT by tanknetter
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