McConnell suddenly in trouble? Not so fast.

I woke up this morning to a seeming tidal wave of polling news for the midterm elections, all of which is bad for Republicans if the cable talking heads are to be believed. At the top of the list of trumpeted GOP disasters in the making was a new poll out of Kentucky which suddenly showed Alison Lundergan Grimes with a two point lead over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

After the lessons learned in the great disaster of 2012, we should all be wary of yelling about the polls being skewed, but this one clearly invites a deeper look. This race was never going to be a blowout, particularly given the amount of discontent which McConnell faces from inside his own base, but at the same time, Grimes has never been able to build a substantial set of numbers in the Bluegrass State which showed a clear path to victory. How did the voters do such an about face in the space of a few days?

Jeff Dunetz beat me to the punch and dug up the facts which I suspected were behind it. This poll is directly contradictory to two other reliable trackers conducted in the same period.

Check out Jeff’s post for the chart, but the numbers speak rather loudly. Through this cycle, only the Bluegrass poll seems to generate these results. Even with these numbers mixed in, the RCP average still has McConnell up by 4.2% (not far off from the average we’ve seen over the past month or two) and the CBS/YouGov poll taken in the same period – which shows a number of other Republicans in trouble – has Mitch up by 6.

Dunetz also notes a difference in methodology which should be taken into account.

These numbers are looking blatantly dubious at this point. Even Ed Kilgore – who will dance on the grave of any conservative as soon as they develop a case of the sniffles – tossed out the word outlier in his coverage before making it two paragraphs into the analysis.

This race will still wind up being close, I’m sure. But Ms. Grimes shouldn’t start ordering new drapes for McConnell’s office just yet.

•Mitch McConnell voted for amnesty in 1986 [RC #335, 10/17/86]
•Mitch McConnell co-sponsored amnesty in 2000 (AP, “Congress considering bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants” 04/10/00)
•Mitch McConnell voted for amnesty in 2006 [RC #157, 05/25/06]
•Mitch McConnell voted against the border fence [RC #200, 07/13/06] before he decided to vote for it after it became popular [RC #262, 09/29/06]
•As his poll numbers began to tank ahead of the 2008 election, he changed his tune. He voted against the 2007 amnesty bill [RC #235, 06/28/07]. According to Robert Novak, “Not only did the minority leader end up voting against an immigration bill that he said was better than the 2006 version he supported, he abandoned his post, staying off the floor during final stages of the debate.” Also, “McConnell was among six switchers who voted no after the 40 senators needed to kill the bill were recorded.” He clearly supported amnesty, but voted against it in the end and remained silent throughout the debate because of political considerations.
•In December 2010, McConnell voted against the DREAM Act amnesty, but less than two years later, he had no opinion on it. In fact, he told reporters that he would not comment on the Dream Act until Romney comes out with a position because “he is the leader of our party.” The sitting leader of the Senate Republican conference refused to offer an opinion on amnesty. Is this leadership?
•During the 2013 amnesty fight, McConnell faced a similar predicament as in 2007. Facing a tough reelection, he chooses to publically oppose it in the end, while doing nothing to speak out against it, and even encouraging and praising it quietly.
•According to the Washington Post, McConnell tapped Rubio to join the Gang of 8 several months before the proposal went public, noting that “Rubio’s participation would be critical to winning conservative support.”
•On May 21, McConnell announced that we would not block the amnesty bill crafted by the Gang that he encouraged. He told reporters, “The Gang of Eight has made a substantial contribution to moving the issue forward. So far, I’m told that the Judiciary Committee has not in any fundamental way undone the agreement reached by the eight senators, so I’m hopeful we’ll be able to get a bill we can pass here in the Senate.” Hence, despite the committee voting down every attempt to place enforcement before legalization, and despite their successful block on barring amnesty to criminal aliens, McConnell actually said it was a good thing that the committee did not improve an already fatally flawed bill.
•Mitch McConnell remained silent during the entire month-long debate, even as conservatives expressed dozens of concerns with the bill.
•On the Thursday before the final vote, McConnell still told Sean Hannity “I don’t know how I’m going to vote in the end.” [06/20/13, Sean Hannity Show]
•Just two hours before the final vote on final passage, McConnell speaks against the bill and votes no [RC #168, 06/27/13]. He noted that border security was not a condition for legalization. The problem is that he already praised the bill out of committee when it was even worse. At least on a superficial level, the Corker-Hoeven amendment, which was incorporated into the final bill, strengthened border security more than the original bill that he praised. The bill was ‘legalization first; promise of enforcement later’ throughout the entire debate. That never changed. Only McConnell’s unprincipled vote changed.
•Even after voting against the bill, McConnell was on Meet the Press [7/14/13] expressing his hope that the House can go to conference with the Senate bill. Everyone knows that will not result in enforcement first.
•On July 16, McConnell told reporters that the Senate had a good year, noting among other things, passage of the immigration bill.

http://jenkuznicki.com/2014/03/mcconnell-is-for-and-has-always-been-for-amnesty/

I agree about Cochran. He’s the one senator I’d encourage people to boycott. Labeling all conservatives as racists was an attack on his party....not the GOP-E would recognize it.

I also agree that not only McConnell but the entire batch of GOP-E controlling the NRSC pitched in money for Cochran. But, in their own races they didn’t cheat, so what I’m disagreeing with is not the legitimacy of their campaigns but the strength of their conservatism. In some cases it approaches zero.

Nonetheless, if they pass the pro-life, pro-gun, pro-balanced budget, pro-natural family tests, then that’s all I’m requiring this time around. (Which means I don’t support Scott Brown in whichever state he’s running in this time around.)

I support Roberts, I support McConnell...I support any republican who passes the above tests and didn’t commit election fraud like Cochran did.

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2014-10-04

Speaker Gingrich,

Speaker Gingrich, with all due respect, Sir, I'm praying that John Bohner, Mitch McConnell and Thad Cochran are replaced by DEMOCRATS in 2014.

It is my hope that you will read this Free Republic post, and my own comments, as the poster of your article.

There is perhaps no more loyal supporter of Newt Gingrich's ideas at Free Republic than myself.

Sir, you often display the courage and brilliance of Sir Winston Churchill.

Your quotation (below) is admirable ... and EXACTLY defines the moral-political-finacial CRISIS that we face in this DEADLY October of 2014.

"We have to frankly break the back of the secular-socialist machine, elect people committed to representing the American people, and then methodically rip the system apart."

~Newt Gingrich, 2012

===============================================

Speaker Gingrich ...

America (Land of the Free and Home of the Brave) is in GRAVE DANGER of an impending disaster, albeit caused by Ebola, an Iranian-EMP attack, ISIS or something else up Obama's evil Kenyan-Islamic sleeve.

That statement is "not" political hyperbole.

Speaker Gingrich, what the American people are now witnessing is a level of "treason" not seen since Bill Ayres, the Rosenburgs or Daniel Pollard.

Sadly, it is a FACT.

Literally, the lives and safety of ten million Americans are at stake, and Obama's CIA, CDC, DOD are comically marching around like the "Three Stooges".

They are joined by the corrupt despicable idiots in the Republican Party Leadership !
They are joined by the corrupt despicable idiots in the Republican Party Leadership !
They are joined by the corrupt despicable idiots in the Republican Party Leadership !

Even DEMOCRATS Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz KNOW that the Tea Party is the "only" reason why that feckless FOOL John Boehner is the current Speaker of the House.

Yet ... John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are the Tea Party's most forceful detractors.

John Bohner and Mitch McConnell FRANTICLY raise millions of dollars (and Mexican pesos) to DEFEAT TEA Party candidates in the primaries.

As a superb historian, Speaker Gingrich, even you would have difficulty trying to recall a most politically-self-destructive GANG of CORRUPT IDIOTS like the current Republican Party.

Even you, Speaker Gingrich, were politically butchered at the hands of the GOP bloodsuckers in the 2012 GOP Presidential Primaries.

You WON the PIVOTAL SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY ...

and yet the evil GOP leadership conspired to "politically" assassinate you.

I watched these events (firsthand) while working in the Florida Primary ... and sending you whatever funds I could scrounge up.

Indeed, it's possible that you remember me ... as the gray haired gentlemen who addressed you as "Mr. President" as you departed the Tampa Airport Rally (on election day) as both you and Callista graced my copy of The Federalist Papers with you audiograpghs.

Speaker Gingrich ... I "do" ACCURATELY speak for ten million (or more) American Patriot Conservatives ...

who wish that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and (ESPECIALLY) Reince Priebus would just "go live on the moon" ...

which is how an evangelical Christian tells someone to "GO TO HELL".

Where the HELL was "Saint" Reince Priebus when the WINNER of the 2014 Mississippi GOP Senate Primary (Chris McDaniel) had his victory stolen from him by the GOP-Elite ?

How many Champagne toasts did Karl Rove and Mitch McConell share over that act of political EVIL ?

Speaker Gingrich, I hope that you REFLECT CLOSELY on these "scientific truths" ...

Clearly, the only reason that the "Tea Party Haters" John Boehner and Saint Reince Priebus, are making such "conservative " speeches now is ...

MONEY
MONEY
MONEY.

It's a craven $$$$$ appeal to the despicable Chamber of Commerce mafia ...

who would ...

"Sell Their Own Daughters To An Islamic Brothel" ...

to pass ...

Illegal Amnesty NOW !

Speaker Gingrich, with all due respect, Sir, I'm praying that John Bohner, Mitch McConnell and Thad Cochran are replaced by DEMOCRATS in 2014.

Respectfully,

Patton@Bastogne
Newt Gingrich 2012 Florida Presidential Campaign volunteer.
Tampa, Florida

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