Posted on 10/07/2014 8:24:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
I woke up this morning to a seeming tidal wave of polling news for the midterm elections, all of which is bad for Republicans if the cable talking heads are to be believed. At the top of the list of trumpeted GOP disasters in the making was a new poll out of Kentucky which suddenly showed Alison Lundergan Grimes with a two point lead over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
After two polls in his favor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has slipped behind Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in his re-election bid, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.
Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state, now leads the five-term senator 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, the survey found. Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3 percent support in the poll, while 7 percent of likely voters said they were undecided.
While Grimes’ advantage is within the poll’s margin of error, it represents a 6-point swing to the Democrat since the survey was last conducted in late August.
After the lessons learned in the great disaster of 2012, we should all be wary of yelling about the polls being skewed, but this one clearly invites a deeper look. This race was never going to be a blowout, particularly given the amount of discontent which McConnell faces from inside his own base, but at the same time, Grimes has never been able to build a substantial set of numbers in the Bluegrass State which showed a clear path to victory. How did the voters do such an about face in the space of a few days?
Jeff Dunetz beat me to the punch and dug up the facts which I suspected were behind it. This poll is directly contradictory to two other reliable trackers conducted in the same period.
The Bluegrass poll certainly looks very different than other polls, in fact every time the Bluegrass has done a poll it has looked like an outlier. Below is a list of every poll in the Kentucky Senate race per “Real Clear Politics.” Notice that out of the 4 polls showing Grimes with the lead three were conducted by Bluegrass.
Check out Jeff’s post for the chart, but the numbers speak rather loudly. Through this cycle, only the Bluegrass poll seems to generate these results. Even with these numbers mixed in, the RCP average still has McConnell up by 4.2% (not far off from the average we’ve seen over the past month or two) and the CBS/YouGov poll taken in the same period – which shows a number of other Republicans in trouble – has Mitch up by 6.
Dunetz also notes a difference in methodology which should be taken into account.
The methodology of the Bluegrass poll is different than the others and that might account for the difference. It is a “robo-poll,” without human interaction. mode. Per the polls methodology page:
This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically.
These numbers are looking blatantly dubious at this point. Even Ed Kilgore – who will dance on the grave of any conservative as soon as they develop a case of the sniffles – tossed out the word outlier in his coverage before making it two paragraphs into the analysis.
This race will still wind up being close, I’m sure. But Ms. Grimes shouldn’t start ordering new drapes for McConnell’s office just yet.
Just a friendly reminder of the Pro-Obamacare, Pro-Amnesty guy we have as Senate Minority Leader.
Enjoy!
Just a friendly reminder of the Pro-Obamacare, Pro-Amnesty guy we have as Senate Minority Leader.
Enjoy!
That video that James O’Keefe did should SINK GRIMES!!! Has it gotten any play in KY?
Enjoy....yeah, I know. It isn’t easy, Uncle Miltie. I know it’s one last gasp with these knuckleheads.
Someone said something about this last night on Fox News, but I don’t remember who
Bump
Mitch McConnell: Admittedly a RINO. But who voted against Obamacare, Stimulus, Dodd-Frank, etc. Opposed radical judges. And will open up investigations into IRS, Obamacare.
Or Alison Grimes: A pro abort anti coal Obama rubber stamp funded by Hollywood enviro radicals.
Yep. Tough Choice. But some want to “show those RINOs weez mean bizness.” LOL!
Doesn’t seem to have, at least yet (and from the local Louisville media websites). Courier Journal has nothing. No surprise, altho they are giving coverage to how the sacrificial lamb GOP nominee for the Louisville House seat slapped Yarmouth around.
If this thing is going to get any play there it either needs to get decent airtime on FOX, or go viral on social media.
For 22 years I've voted for the lesser of evils. It DOESN'T work. McConnell is a backstabbing, anti-Conservative traitor and must be defeated at all costs. I prefer having my enemies out front, where I can see them coming, rather than behind me spewing Conservative jargon while stabbing Conservatives such as myself in the back. If I could, I would probably vote for Grimes. Since I can't, I'll be praying for McConnell's loss.
He voted to fund Obamacare without any reservations. Only reason he voted against it in the first place is because he knew his vote wouldn't matter. He is a RINO traitor, and must be dealt with accordingly. BTW, that DOESN'T mean electing him to another term.
Been stockpiling for quite a few years. I'm ready. Vote Democrat. Lets get this show on the road before I'm too old to put up a good fight.
Sheesh. You people are losers.
Any conservative who would actually vote for Grimes has just intentionally given their vote to a known radical liberal and the socialist agenda.
It wouldn’t be a mistake. It wouldn’t be because they were fooled.
It would be that person actually trying to put the radical liberal in power.
I don’t think you could actually do it and still live with yourself.
Yes. If McDaniel can’t be in the ballot or a campaign done to write him in, then by all means make Cochran lose in Mississippi. If it can be done in Boehner’s district as well. That would be good, but unlikely.
But in Kansas there is no choice but to get Pat Roberts across the finish line.
No, the losers are the ones who vote for the RINO, then piss and moan because RINO's are being RINO's. As I mentioned, I've voted for the RINO (lesser of evil) for 22 years now. It's not done a damn bit of good. Keep doing it, if you like. You're still voting for a liberal, no matter how you slice or dice it. You just get to feel good about it, because the liberal has an R next to their name. Fools.
After 22 years of voting for the lesser of evils, I absolutely could. The lesser of evil logic is NOT working. It won't ever work. It is the logic of fools. Voting for the RINO? You're still voting for a liberal. You just get to feel good about it because there's an R next to the name.
Have at it....I don’t have to live with you!!!
No Republican has anything in the bag now, there is far too much vote fraud.
Really? We got a far better scenario than what Obama/Reid brings us daily. We got tax cuts and a booming economy vs. a middle class which suffers daily under current commie leadership.
We got military decisions that kept the US on offense in national security vs. now living in fear over various threats.
And now you don't seem to care that conservatives like Sessions and Inhofe will be presiding over some of the most important committees.
What's really your beef? Your guy did poorly in the primaries?
If he votes RAT he’ll be getting robocalled by DWS for the last years of his life... bet he hadn’t thought of that. I’m convinced Big Data sucks the results out of voting machines. Hell, county clerks have command-line access to voting totals.
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