Posted on 09/24/2014 6:41:09 AM PDT by Din Maker
Nate Silver has made a name for himself getting his presidential forecasts spot-on perfect. So when he speaks about U.S. Senate races, people listen.
His latest thinking on Kansas’ much-talked-about Senate race?
Independent Greg Orman has a 61 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. His expected winning margin is 3 percentage points.
Silver bases his predictions on all manner of polls and political data.
Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority. And Democrats have a 41.5 percent chance of keeping their majority.
That goes against conventional wisdom, which suggests that if Roberts loses in Kansas, Republicans probabaly won’t regain control of the chamber.
(Excerpt) Read more at kansascity.com ...
That's the ticket, let's argue over who gets the blame. That's much more important than defeating Harry Reid. Losers always feel better when they win the argument.
His politics lean left, but he seems to always follow the math when it comes to projections.
I don't disregard him anymore. Maybe he did have knowledge of the failure of Romney's ORCA; maybe he factors in vote fraud. He nailed 2012 when others like Rasmussen and Michael Barone didn't.
Amen.
I’m trying very hard to make Harry Reid go away in 2016.
Lots of bribery going on.
I can understand the vitriol against some republicans...but I will never understand staying home or refusing to vote for someone who represents 60-70 percent of your interests, and essentially aid someone like Reid who represents 0.0 percent of your interests. Time to stop the civil war and elect republicans.
Please tell us just how much less dingy harry and a dem Senate will batter us and America through your re-electing them? The spanking you propose will have US on the receiving end with much greater negative effect. How about another liberal SCOTUS or their continuing loading the Federal Bench approved under another dem Senate, is that what “payback” pinheads want?
Post 13 says a good plan.
At least he is far more liberal than weenie dimocRAT, the Sebelius KS not-so-supreme Court let slink away without obeying the law!
So-called anti-Roberts crowd may get what they've hoped and prayed for, someone besides Roberts in the Senate from KS! However, just like those "anybody but Hillary" got what they wished - Barack Obama, KS will get someone far, far worse than Roberts - Greg Orman!!!
Orman is definitely an Obama admirer and that goes both ways and he will vote for anything Obama wants and support Dingy Harry's "leadership!"
A leftist DREAM (plant) candidate, now there's the hope of every liberal in KS and possibly even that of the libertarians as well.
I even know a number of them who've donated $$$ to his campaign!
I'm seeing bold "ORMAN" signs now sprouting up in their yards!
They are so mad at Roberts (because he's "been there too long") that they're happy to shout, "we told you so and so now you can live with Orman."
Akin to shooting one's foot off to spite their face but you can't reason with them, it's all "my way or the highway!"
You think a 51 seat majority will not result in a liberal SCOTUS? That ignores all history. If we had 60 votes, we’d still end up with fairly liberal SCOTUS appointments by Obama. Unless they had major scandal erupt, they would get many votes from our side. Look how many voted for Kagan. She’s about as unworthy and as much of a political hack as we’ll ever see appointed.
It makes virtually no difference. I hope we get 51, but I really don’t care all that much because the impact will be miniscual if at all. More than likely our side will sign on to a bunch of crap to ‘win over’ voters for 2016. Things like amnesty that are otherwise gridlocked.
I don’t think that the Harry Reid Fan Club is listening. Besides, even if we win, the Gang of 14 is going to do exactly what Harry Reid is doing. So, why bother? Not exactly brilliant political analysis at work, just hate, anger, and frustration.
Nate will tell us where big time election cheating will happen.
He nailed it because he knew where the cheating would happen. The man is no guru.
FWIW, Kagan was a lot more worthy than Sotomayor. Kagan is a smart, capable lawyer well-liked by leading lawyers and leading academics from all ideological corners. Sotomayor is a thorough mediocrity who did one thing well in her career: managing to be in the right place at the right time to be “first Latina to do X” — there are a dozen liberal Latina law professors whom Obama could have drawn from but he was too risk averse to do anything but appoint a Circuit Judge.
That's funny, since YOU are the one who was assessing blame.
I am merely countering the all too common argument made by too many moderates and so-called conservatives (such as yourself, apparently) that the way to save the country is to continue to vote for any candidate that the GOPs decides to shove down our throats, and that the resulting failure of the GOP at election time is conservatives' fault for not sending them money and voting for them.
I made my statement in support of a strategic agenda, to wit:
No more voting for RINOs ever, under any circumstances. Period.
In the past I voted for McCain, and Romney nationally, and for Scott Brown in Massachusetts. But I guess it depends on your belief in how far gone this nation is, and what it will take to restore it, assuming that is even possible at this point.
Personally, I now believe that the only way to save America at this point (assuming such a thing is still possible) is to put conservatives in political offices and enact an agenda based on free markets, limited government and the rule of law. As long as we have a Republican party that actively opposes those ends (and we do, obviously), then I believe our only (slim) hope is drastic action.
As long as the Republican Party establishment believes that it can continue to survive by being Democrat-lite, and that it can continue to maintain power while actively fighting against the core principles of liberty, free markets and Constitutional law, it will never make the necessary change of direction.
Only when the Republican party understands that it must change or die can we hope to turn this country around. Our too-long-serving entrenched establishment politicians can still enjoy their comfy lifestyles, their wealth, power and prestige as members of a minority party. So why should they bother to change direction?
Surely a John Boehner (or an Eric Cantor -- had he not been defeated -- or a Mitch McConnell) would be just as happy to be minority leaders if the election cycle didn't go their way. Yes, they would prefer to be majority leaders, but what good would it do them if a conservative Republican Party won the majority and then threw them out of their cushy positions and all those perks, replacing them with real conservatives?
Ask yourself -- which do you think Mitch McConnell would prefer -- a majority Republican party in which he was stripped of his position by a conservative majority, or a minority Republican party in which he could remain Senate minority leader because the majority of Republican senators were RINOs?
You may argue that we have no time to wait for the Republicans to realize that their only choice is to change or die as a viable party. But if we don't have time for that, then what makes you think we have time to wait for the RINOs and the GOP-e to pursue a "moderately marginal" course of action designed only to maintain their personal fiefdoms at the expense of a free America operating under the rule of Constitutional law?
The GOP had majority power in the House and Senate, and occupied the White House, 10 years ago. What did all that power do to move the agenda of liberty forward? Answer: nothing.
A GOP that cannot even sell liberty, limited governments and free markets to the American people is worse than useless. It is a party of tyranny enablers, and I will have none of it.
Unbelievably, today we once again face the stark choice between liberty and death.
Once again, these are the times that try men's souls. Conservatives need to be waging aggressive war against the totalitarian leftist tyrants on all fronts -- in the branches of government at the federal and state level, in academia, in the media, through public demonstrations, and in the voting booth.
Many argue that we must continue to vote for "the most electable conservative," which means "vote for the RINO if no conservative is running." But I respectfully disagree with that choice. I am done enabling.
If we really are to lose the greatest country in the history of the world, then let's at least be fighting for it when it goes down.
And who knows, maybe -- just maybe, if we show sufficient resolve and conviction -- divine Providence will once again provide the support that gave our founders their unlikely victory in 1776, and grant us once again the "new birth of freedom" that Lincoln called for a century later.
If you reward bad behavior, you get more of it. The RINOs have managed to own the Republican party because they know that conservatives have nowhere else to go.
To continue voting for RINOs is to play right into that strategy. The RINOs have become so certain of your vote that they actually believe they can continue to stay in power by declaring outright war on the conservative base.
And when they do that, they are actually declaring war on core American principles -- war on liberty, war on free market economics, and even war on the Constitution.
The RINO Republicans cannot even make an appeal to the traditional American love of those principles, because they have lost the credibility and historical awareness to articulate them, let alone promote them.
Yes, having Harry Reid continue as speaker is a horrific scenario. But having RINO Republicans win that office is only a marginally better short-term outcome.
And in some ways it is even worse, because as the RINOs “reach across the aisle" to promote marginally modified Democrat policies, they give the Democrats cover from the well-deserved blame that they have unleashed on our country for the last five years.
America is out of time now. We cannot continue on the current path. And as things continue to deteriorate, who do you think the voters will blame if the Republicans are in power when the 2016 elections come around?
You think Mitch McConnell's senate will repeal Obamacare? You think it will take the right position on immigration? You think a Republican Senate will vote against Obama’s left wing Supreme Court nominations?
America needs clear, passionate and articulate voices to advocate and defend our founding principles, to secure our borders, to preserve our nation, and to take legislative and administrative steps to turn this country around, assuming it still can be turned around.
Majority leader Mitch McConnell will NEVER provide that voice or leadership. He is not the guy to turn things around for our formerly blessed nation.
But in 2016 a newly terrified Republican party will be forced to court instead of alienate the conservative base, and come 2017 will be in a position to put the party and our nation on the proper path. Such a duly chastised party has a real chance of nominating a Ted Cruz, instead of a Mitt Romney who, according to last night's panel on Fox News, is at this point the likely Republican presidential nominee.
So in November, for those whose only choice in the mid-terms is between a RINO and a Democrat, I urge them to stay home on election day, or vote third-party -- anything to prove the RINOs wrong in thinking that they can stay in power by literally declaring war on conservatism.
Think about it.
I haven’t seen many signs in Johnson county for either Orman or Roberts. Roberts really burned a lot of conservatives here. I don’t see him making repairs. In fact, you hardly see him at all. He doesn’t seem to be fighting Orman nearly as hard as he fought Wolf.
I still say Roberts has a chance to heal the divide he created but I don’t see him taking the very easy steps to do that. It doesn’t make sense to me. If he would just move back and start loudly proclaiming he will support Cruz or someone else for Majority leader, he wins.
Certainly the K C (Red) Star isn't going to make the info on them available prior to an event even though they always know about them for they send media libs to "report."
I am not blaming you, my friend. I am, and will continue, to point out the self defeating folly of your statement. Not even the Democrats are stupid enough to adopt that philosophy and political strategy. They believe in political power, your statement is one of political obscurity and extinction.
You and the others who espouse this view are a distinct, but very vocal, minority on this forum, the largest conservative board on the internet. Your approach can never win an election even among conservatives, much less among the voting population at large. The basic idea is to get large numbers of diverse thinkers to vote for your candidate who will be and will act as a true conservative. Hard to do, but not impossible as Obama has demonstrated on the opposite side of the spectrum. It is not a rational approach to help him and others of his ilk out of irrational fits of anger and frustration. I will rail against you at every opportunity, you are not helpful to the conservative cause.
Shaddup, GOPe shill.
You have nothing to offer but the same old GOPe talking points.
Talking points that long been dismissed by many true conservatives.
Decades and decades of compromise and grand bargains by both sides
have brought this country to the brink of collapse and socialism.
Yet, you have learned nothing.
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