What does Vladimir Putin want next?

This is CNN ^ | March 21, 2014 | By Tim Lister

[Jim Robinson]

Simferopol, Crimea (CNN) -- Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at chances to poke the West in the eye, or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea? Is he a rational actor aware of the delicate balances within the international system, or as one observer put it, "drunk on power" and oblivious to sanctions?

These are the questions preoccupying western governments and Russia's neighbors, after the swift annexation of Crimea and Russian military maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border.

There were some tantalizing clues in Putin's pugnacious speech to the Duma this week. He described the fall of the Soviet Union as unfortunate -- because it had separated Russians. "The Russian nation became one of the biggest, if not the biggest ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders," he said.

"It was only when Crimea ended up as part of a different country that Russia realized that it was not simply robbed, it was plundered." He went on to say, "if you compress the spring all the way to its limit, it will snap back hard."

Heady, populist rhetoric -- but it has propelled the Russian President to his highest approval rating -- 71% -- in recent years, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center.

Putin said Russia had no intention of violating Ukraine's sovereignty (beyond the 5% of its territory it has absorbed this week.) "Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, shouting that other regions will follow Crimea," he told Ukrainians.

[caveat emptor]

Harper has more than just the Ukrainian horse in this race

Yep. He's no one-trick pony.

Canada is vulnerable to exactly the same Russian incursion in its far Northern reaches

Ha. There would be no ~60% ethnic Russians there to welcome them with flowers, armed "green men" supporters, no comparison with supply lines, etc.

The Russians can enter Canada’s far North anytime,

An incursion in force, annexing territory, would be unthinkable even to mention without Obama (as you indirectly note).

Your speculations about Canada are not well informed, eg. "50% of its federal budget is dedicated to socialized medicine Health Care" is greatly overstated.

The Canadian federal government budgeted in 2009-10 nearly $60 billion to transfer to the provinces and territories through major transfers (Canada Health Transfer, Canada Social Transfer, Equalization and Territorial Formula Financing), while The Canadian federal budget for fiscal year 2014–2015 showed expenditures of 279.2 billion (several billion up from 2009-2010). Round that down to 200 billion (for convenience), 50% of which (your figure for health care) is 100 billion, 40% more than total transfers.

The rest of your doom-and-gloom contentions (eg. drives Harper to distraction; the whol national existence of Canada is under threat by Russia. ) aren't supported by the Canadian Arctic Sovereignty assessment to which you link and which states "there has yet to be any serious cause for alarm".

"White" troops with arctic clothing, gear and transport aren't going to be overrunning Canadian Ranger outposts in Tuktoyaktuk or Kangiqsualujjuaq anytime soon.

[Krosan]

The difference here is that Crimea was poor, but Russians living in Estonia actually have a good life. They like to make noise, but all of them know very well how much better they have it in Estonia than Russians across the other side of Narva river.

I don’t know too much about military things, but here are my thoughts: There are no Russian military bases in Estonia as there is in Crimea and there is a visa regime. On land their military could get to Estonia over the bridge of Narva river. Border check is not heavily manned so maybe they manage to get some of their forces over the bridge before it is destroyed and bring other forces by other means. That would certainly mean invading a NATO member.

[Dagnabitt]

Pretty sure the Imperial Walkers will hand them their asses.

[gaslucas1]

they say that the final match of 2018 World Cup in Russia will be played in Berlin...

[Candor7]

1) The Canadian Arctic Security assessment is wrong, because it is based on the premise of a NATO friendly Russia. Such is clearly NOT the case Now, nor will it be in the future.

2) Your spurious recital of lack of ethnic Russians in the Canadian North makes no intelligent assessment of the exploration opportunities for oil under the sea ice on Canadas Northern Coasts, or the history of Russian involvement there.In fact Russia has claimed sovereignty over them, while Canada poofters on about mutual exploitability because it cannot enforce its sovereignty there.Only Russia has the resources to claim and enforce such sovereignty at this time, Canada does not.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/12/10/russia-steps-up-arctic-military-presence-just-a-day-after-canada-extends-territorial-claim-all-the-way-to-the-north-pole/

3) The USA now will not honor its security agreements with allies such as Japan, Canada or Great Britain under the current leftist administration which has become apologetic for the exercise of its so called neo colonial military power. Obama is weak internationally and will not use military force on behalf of non minority and ethnic allies who are Caucasian or Asian. So Canada , Israel and Japan know that they are on their own, but the Canadian public does not...yet.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/israel-defence-minister-moshe-yaalon-slams-barack-obamas-weak-feeble-foreign-policy-1440714

4) Yes 50% of Canada’s budget is indeed taken up by its socialized medicine system and other transfer payments and social programs.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/content/sen/committee/372/soci/rep/repoct02vol6part6-e.htm

That must change if we are to secure the Northern reaches of our nation ( Canada), and its rich natural resources.Hard times are ahead.And whats more, poofters like Justine Trudeau are not the caliber of politician we need to see us through, and the Canadian left is absolutely culturally blind to the Russian threat, and would be in denial even if Vlad the Shirtless marched into Ottawa with a Division of Troops, with Justin Trudeau hanging from a Russian flag pole on parade. Very much just like you are in denial.

Military spending by the Harper government must increase ASAP, and the CAF must undergo a rapid growth. Canada also must have FOBs in the North, just as Russia does.

Or we had better start moving our bilinual language policies over to a tri-lingual version to include Russian.

[caveat emptor]

Blah blah blah. Very much just like you are in denial.

Fuddle duddle.

[Terry L Smith]

Dear Cronoz,

Thank you for the embellishment, of what I had perceived, and found correct.

So then, do you agree to the premise, that Mr. Putin is on the mission of enlarging Russia to a ‘what was’ state? There is only one choice, since the USSR cannot be put back together correctly, so Tsarist Russia was next.

[Terry L Smith]

Dear Marguerite,

Thank you for the maps, that confirmed my suspicions.

Reading the 1980 Soviet map. got me to laughing. Here is why:
In the R.E.H. storyline, that became part of the chronicler’s ongoing voice-over, of Conan the Barbarian, he was “sent to Khitai”, to learn culture, swordsmanship, and a few other things. In Russian, Red China is ‘kitai’! The R.E.H. stories were written in the ‘30’s. That is remarkable.

[hummingbird]

"I think it is important that we in the free world not accept the occupation of Crimea, that we continue to resist and sanction the occupation of Crimea and that there be no return to business as usual with the Putin regime until such time as the occupation of Crimea ends," he said.

----------------------------------------->

He is obviously not talking about the US which is now Obamastan - not a member of the free world.

[caveat emptor]

He is obviously not talking about the US which is now Obamastan - not a member of the free world.

Look on the bright side. America will be back, and he'll be a nobody after Jan 20, 2017. Who's going to support him when he's gone? Hillary? Tingles? Dingy Harry? Pelosi? He might even clean up his act a bit when he realizes he's not going to be the center of anybody's attention except maybe his wife, his daughters and Reggie.

[Cronos]

well, Ruthenians/Rusyns/"Russians"(in the larger sense) are at different times different terms for East Slavs

In the 17th century Ruthenians = Rusyns. There was very little difference between Belarussians and what we call western ukrainians -- not in language, nor in culture or religion

In the 17th century due to the Khmelnitsky revolt/rebellion/whatever you want to call it, the Cossacks in the East of the PLC joined up with Moscow (to their later regret)

Western Ukraine was not moved between Poland and the Hapsburg empire for centuries

Western Ukraine was first, along with Belarus part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania fron the 14th century. The GDL joined with poland in 1410 with the marriage of Grand Duke Jogailla (Jagiello in Polish) to Jadwiga Angevin of Poland (though funnily enough she was the daughter of a Hungarian king who was of French Angevin origins related to Henry II of England)

Ukraine and Belarus were continuously in this Polish sphere from 1400 until the late 1600s while Moscow was first tax-collector for the Great Khan and then took over the khanates

All these non-Moscowite East Slavs were/are Orthodox in practice. In the 17th century there was the Uniate move which had the Metropolitan of Kiev joining the Catholic Church

It sounds like a religious battleground which it was, but more importantly was the political scenery --> until Constantinople fell, the Metropolitans of Kiev, Moscow etc. all "reported" (for want of a better term) to one Patriarch

But after the fall of Constantinople, and the Grand Dukes of Moscow calling themselves Caesars, the politcal pressure began for Kiev to "report" to Moscow

But Kiev and the "ruthenians"/rusyns were not in Moscows administrative controls but in a competing slavic power -- Poland's -- control

So a tussle

The uniate idea was an elegant solution to this political problem saying "ok, you can remain Orthodox, but you don't need to 'report' to the Patriarch of Moscow, so no need for political union" -- but things are not so simple. Latin Catholics tended to boss around the Byzantine Catholics and perhaps more important there was the strong soft power -- Poland was dynamic culturally while the East Slavs did not have the chance to shine. Hence Ruthenian nobles became Polish (as did Lithuanian nobles and Jews and others)

Lwów yes was a Polish city in the middle of a Ukrainian rural area, but there were no large massacres -- that came later under Bandera the Ukrainian right-winger who massacred 70,000 Poles

Jews were mostly left alone in their shtetls -- mostly but not always

what do you mean " Poland occupied Lwov,"? in 1941 Poland didn't exist. This was German occupied territory

I agree with you that East and West have differences. But they have a lot in common as well.

[Cronos]

Thanks for the two corrections :)

[Cronos]

Interesting. I would guess that about the Russians in Estonia

here in Poland I have a friend who is half-Russian, half-Estonia and he seems proud of both sides, but he is very much a libertarian and dislikes Putin (interestingly he's engaged to a half-pole, half-ukrainian :-P)

We're also close friends with a lady who is half-lithuanian, half-russian -- I've not asked her about her opinion yet.

[Cronos]

Yes, he wants a Russia like in 1825. Of course, this puts him at odds with Poles, Ukrainians, Chinese, Belarussians, Estonians, Finns, Latvians,Lithuanians, Georgians, Armenians, Kazakhi, Kirghiz, Uzbeks, Mongols, Chinese etc. etc.

[Cronos]

What is also funny is that the term Khitai, Cathay for China comes from a non-Chinese Khitai kingdom in what is now northern China/southern Siberia — they were Mongol-Turkic and had kingdoms and empires over centuries like the Kara-khitai etc.

[Marguerite]

“In Russian, Red China is ‘kitai’!”

Kitai is the Russian version of the English old name of China - Cathay. It comes from Khitan, a Chinese nomadic people who occupied Northen China in the 10th century.

The name Cathay was used by Marco Polo in his writings about China in the 16th century.