Palin top pick of Alaska Republicans

Public Policy Polling ^ | 07/30/2013

[SeekAndFind]

Alaska should be a top tier pick up opportunity for Senate Republicans next year...but their top choice of a candidate is Sarah Palin. 36% of GOP primary voters in the state say they'd like Palin to be their standard bearer against Mark Begich to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 15% for Dan Sullivan, and 12% for Joe Miller. Palin leads mostly based on her strength with 'very conservative' voters where she gets 43% to 20% for Treadwell, but she also leads him 28/25 with moderates.

The problem for Republicans with a Palin candidacy is that even though she is in good standing with the party base, voters overall don't like her at all. She has a 39/58 favorability rating, including 33/64 with key independent voters. There's a lot of division about how strong her ties to the state even are anymore- only 47% of voters consider her to still be an Alaskan while 46% don't, and 37% of voters in the state think it would be more appropriate for her to run for the Senate from Arizona to 41% who say Alaska.

It all adds up to a 52/40 lead for Begich in a hypothetical match up with Palin. He leads by 21 points with independents, 56/35, and takes 20% of the Republican vote. It's a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she's very much in a hole.

The best Republican hope for this seat is Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell and the good news for the GOP is that if Palin sits it out he, and not 2010 nominee Joe Miller, is the next choice of the party base. In a three way primary Treadwell gets 33% to 25% for Sullivan and 24% for Miller. And in a head to head with Miller, Treadwell leads 53/30. Even among Republican primary voters Miller has a dreadful 26/53 favorability rating.

Treadwell still trails Begich, but only by a 44/40 margin. That's narrowed from 47/39 on our February poll. Treadwell has a +6 favorability rating at 35/29 and has room to grow with 36% of voters still not knowing enough about him to have formed an opinion. Alaskans are closely divided on Begich with 42% approving and 41% disapproving of him. Begich's biggest complication though is probably how voters in the state feel about Barack Obama- just 39% approve of the job he's doing to 57% who disapprove. Begich does lead Sullivan (46/39) and Miller (55/32) should either of them slip through the primary.

It definitely looks like the action in Alaska next year will be the Senate race. Governor Sean Parnell actually has approval numbers that could suggest some vulnerability- 44% give him good marks to 42% who disapprove. But he still has wide leads in hypothetical match ups with a quartet of potential Democratic opponents- he's up 13 on Ethan Berkowitz at 51/38, 19 on Bill Wielechowski at 52/33, 20 on Les Gara at 53/33, and 21 on Hollis French at 54/33. Parnell also looks pretty solid against a primary challenge from Bill Walker, leading him 60/22.

The Alaska House race is a similar story- Don Young isn't terribly popular with a 47/43 approval rating but he still leads potential Democratic challenger Matt Moore by 28 points at 56/28.

[MHGinTN]

Give a year to build a data base and I can deliver any poll results you want for the money. There is no such thing as an ‘honest’ poll.

[Alex in chains]

You are correct..... especially after having at one time a 90 percent approval rating across the entire voting public.

[SeekAndFind]

The Democratic CW is that they’d love, love, love to run against Palin because their base hates her and would be sure to pony up for Begich and because independents remain leery of her. Those indie numbers are tough, but if she could shrink the 20 percent of Republicans who prefer him to her, she’d have a chance. That’s not unthinkable in a state as red as Alaska, especially since she’ll have plenty of ad money flowing in from her loyal supporters and some big-name endorsements from the national GOP. McCain owes her a favor after she campaigned for him in 2010; Ted Cruz would doubtless show up for her too, as might Rand Paul. Having her run would be good for the party’s chances to take back the Senate next year too, since lots of Democratic dough that might go to other vulnerable Dem incumbents will be sent north to try to help Begich stop Palin.

Look at it this way: What better chance will she have to reclaim political office than to take him on now? The only obvious alternative is to bide her time and then run as McCain’s replacement in Arizona once he retires. But who knows how long that’ll be, and how risky it’ll be for a staunch conservative by the time he quits given Arizona’s changing demographics. Even if her numbers in Alaska aren’t what they once were, there’s obviously still some goodwill there; her favorables among Republicans, at least, are 65/30. Her supporters are eager for her to run for something again. Why not now?

[Jim Noble]

I’m inclined to say if she can’t win in AK she can’t win anywhere.

[Alex in chains]

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz could show up and help Palin gain all the support that Joe Miller received.

But she is going to need the help of Alaska’s Republicans... Parnell, Treadwell, Murkowski, etc.

They will carry more weight in a general election than Tea Party Senators from out of state.

[Alex in chains]

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz could show up and help Palin gain all the support that Joe Miller received.

But she is going to need the help of Alaska’s Republicans... Parnell, Treadwell, Murkowski, etc.

They will carry more weight in a general election than Tea Party Senators from out of state.

[InvisibleChurch]

How many electoral votes are we short?

[LibLieSlayer]

Did you notice that this was a poll and not an election... a poll some 18 months out? I do not live or die by polls alone and I know one thing... if Sarah runs... she will run because she is convinced that she can make a difference and she will know that she can win. I will back her to the fullest extent possible.

I am through doing politics by the numbers. Our Founders never took the easy way out or always bet on the sure thing... and they went up against the most powerful Military Force known to man (at the time) and they defeated them soundly with a Military that should not have been able to win. I also remember strategists telling us that hillary clinton would soundly defeat all challengers and become the next president of the United States. Heck... they are already beating that recycled drum again.

LLS

[hattend]

It's a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she's very much in a hole.

Funny, I hadn't heard she was running as yet.

[RB156]

Dog catcher is too good for Joke Miller. He lost to a WRITE-IN RINO Alaskan MooCow despite running in a deep red state in a great year for the Tea Party.

Run Sarah Run!

[noprogs]

I would like for you to explain how you came to that conclusion. Projecting your obvious faults of ignorance and mental deficiency onto others is no way to go through life.

[WilliamRobert]

PDS troll. You have no clue even after all that has been written and published about Pain.

[WilliamRobert]

Yep eight years all living in the same house. I agree.

[9YearLurker]

I think it would be fantastic for her. It’d update her political resume and add perceived gravitas for those who doubt her heft, while also giving her substantial foreign policy experience.

She could well be the 51st Senator tipping the chamber for the GOP, which is a significant mark right there.

I hope she runs.

[noprogs]

Much has been published about her indeed. I bought her book and actually read it. Sorry to bust your crush, but as much as I love her too, she has her problems.

She increased taxes and royalties on oil production in AK to reinforce a socialistic wealth redistribution system.

She campaigned for many RINO squishes (Karen Handel in Georgia) whose only qualifications were a vagina and an”R” after their name. Think of the AZ governor who forced Obamacare exchanges through.

Sure, she helped Cruz and helps anyone she endorses. In 2008 I cut McCain’s name off the top of my yard sign, and she is why I voted for them.

Simply by not being part of the GOPe she is popular here, and again I hope she wins a seat in the US Senate, but I think she should endorse the most conservative candidate in the primary, like Cruz and not Handel, and should be a bit tougher in dealing with her opponents, which I AM NOT ONE!

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

This article from Public Policy Polling is extremely anti-Palin and they play with survey figures to make their points against her.

Palin will do something to help reclaim America, be it run for another public office, or as a philosophical and spiritual leader (which the GOP doesn’t have in its leadership right now).

We just have to wait a while to see where she is going, and if we want to follow her.

Personally I like her guts, spirit, determination, and decency. That puts her above most of our so-called politicians in both parties.

[Osage Orange]

If the Pubbies had any sense they’d boycott everyone but FOX....

[StAnDeliver]

"That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well."

Heh, noob.

'08 - Palin worth US$1M
'09 - leaves office
'13 - Palin worth US$12M

[StAnDeliver]

"PPP surveyed 890 Alaska voters ... automated telephone interviews ... MoE for overall survey +/- 3.3%, +/- 4.4% for GOP portion."

Typical PPP scag...worthless...