The Democratic CW is that they’d love, love, love to run against Palin because their base hates her and would be sure to pony up for Begich and because independents remain leery of her. Those indie numbers are tough, but if she could shrink the 20 percent of Republicans who prefer him to her, she’d have a chance. That’s not unthinkable in a state as red as Alaska, especially since she’ll have plenty of ad money flowing in from her loyal supporters and some big-name endorsements from the national GOP. McCain owes her a favor after she campaigned for him in 2010; Ted Cruz would doubtless show up for her too, as might Rand Paul. Having her run would be good for the party’s chances to take back the Senate next year too, since lots of Democratic dough that might go to other vulnerable Dem incumbents will be sent north to try to help Begich stop Palin.
Look at it this way: What better chance will she have to reclaim political office than to take him on now? The only obvious alternative is to bide her time and then run as McCain’s replacement in Arizona once he retires. But who knows how long that’ll be, and how risky it’ll be for a staunch conservative by the time he quits given Arizona’s changing demographics. Even if her numbers in Alaska aren’t what they once were, there’s obviously still some goodwill there; her favorables among Republicans, at least, are 65/30. Her supporters are eager for her to run for something again. Why not now?