Posted on 07/09/2013 7:07:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
What’s the outlook for the 2014 Senate elections? As in 2010 and 2012, the Republicans once again have a chance to overturn the Democrats’ majority.
Much attention has been focused on whether Republicans this time will nominate candidates capable of winning key races, which they failed to do in the two previous election cycles. But another interesting question is how Democrats will try to hold onto seats in Republican-leaning states even as Barack Obama maintains his strong tilt to the political left.
The lineup is certainly favorable to Republicans. Assuming the New Jersey seat now held by Republican appointee Jeff Chiesa goes Democratic in the October special election, only 14 Republican seats will be up in 2014, but 21 Democratic seats. Only one of those Republican seats is in a state carried by Barack Obama, Maine (56 percent Obama), and three-term incumbent Susan Collins looks unbeatable. In contrast, Democrats have to defend seats in seven states carried by Mitt Romney and in four states that were target states in the 2012 presidential election.
Republicans seem sure to win open seats in South Dakota (58 percent Romney) and West Virginia (62 percent Romney). Well-known Democrats are avoiding both races, and they look like certain Republican pickups. The scene is a bit different in Montana (55 percent Romney), where Senate Finance chairman Max Baucus is retiring after 36 years. The strongest possible Democrat is folksy former governor Brian Schweitzer, who takes populist stands on economics and has backed the Keystone pipeline, which Barack Obama has so far refused to approve.
Two seats in the Deep South held by Democrats with locally famous names are in peril, and the two incumbents seem to have different strategies.
In Louisiana (58 percent Romney), Mary Landrieu, daughter and sister of New Orleans mayors, seems to be running as a proud Obama Democrat. Her state has the second-largest black percentage in the union, and evidently she’s hoping for high black turnout and just enough white votes to give her a fourth narrow majority.
In Arkansas (61 percent Romney), Mark Pryor — son of David Pryor, the representative, governor, and senator whose election wins date back to 1966 — seems to be running as a moderate in tune with local values. He was reelected unopposed in 2008, but Republicans have since captured all the state’s U.S. House seats and majorities in the state legislature. And Arkansas has a much lower black percentage than Louisiana.
Both Landrieu and Pryor have run under 50 percent in recent polls against Representatives John Fleming and Tom Cotton, with Pryor a statistically insignificant 1 percent ahead of the Republican.
In North Carolina (50 percent Romney), Democrat Kay Hagan faces a different battleground. The Obama campaign vastly increased turnout in 2008 and won the state with high black turnout and support from high-education whites. But that coalition failed to prevail in 2012, when Romney narrowly carried the state, and Republicans captured the governorship and won large majorities in the state legislature. Incumbent Hagan won the seat in 2008 largely because of slip-ups by Republican Elizabeth Dole. She has come out for same-sex marriage and isn’t denouncing Obamacare. Evidently she’s hoping to reassemble the 2008 Obama majority.
Another Democratic surprise winner in 2008 was Mark Begich of Alaska (55 percent Romney). He won by 1 percent after incumbent Ted Stevens was convicted on federal charges in October. That conviction was reversed in 2009, but Begich was positioned to cast what can legitimately be called the deciding vote for Obamacare that year.
If Democrats lose all seven of these seats in Romney states, and if Republicans avoid nominating candidates who manage to lose seats that currently seem unlosable, Republicans will have at least a 52-48 Senate majority.
And they have at least an outside chance of winning seats in 2012 target states Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, plus Michigan.
Well, you might ask, isn’t it unusual for one party to sweep all the close races? Actually, sometimes it does. Republicans did in 1980 and Democrats did in 1986 — and those were the same seats.
Republicans won the bulk of close races in 2002, and Democrats won the bulk of close races in 2008 — the same seats again and the ones up next year.
A sweep is by no means certain this time. But if the Obamacare rollout is a “train wreck,” as Baucus feared, the odds get better.
— Michael Barone, senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor, and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.
The NJ seat was gone whatever happened. Unless maybe Whorealdo runs (NJ is weird like that), but I don’t want his ass in the senate anyway,
Collins will stay seated I think.
McConnell will retain his seat, because his opponent is a joke. She was so dysfunctional, when she made her announcement to run, they had to use old banners from when she was running for treasurer!
Virginia is going to vote for Warner. The state’s a basket case.
Meanwhile, I think Hagan could be taken out easily. Not with Tillis, who is a corrupt big government RINO. Greg Brannon, the doctor, is a very strong orator, and my vote would be for him.
I thought we had a candidate in Colorado. Some guy with a big mustache?
New Hampshire? No chance. Sununu could try again, but the state is full of Massholes, most of whom just ended up stuck there after various road accidents.
We desperately need a candidate in Iowa. Great opportunity for a backup gain. Don’t know much about Land in Michigan, originally I was hoping Ben Carson would run for it. That would be interesting.
To run our royal flush on the senate would be this way
North Dakota - Mike Rounds (pretty moderate, but nobody would defeat him in a primary. He’s a Dan Coats type)
West Virginia - Pat McGeehan (I think this state is safe enough to take a gamble. Capito is too much of a Rove-operative)
Arkansas - Tom Cotton (no doubts here)
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy (would be willing to go with someone else, but he’s the only one I know of right now)
Alaska - Mead Treadwell, Palin if she runs (I think Miller’s time has passed)
North Carolina - Greg Brannon (potentially the next Mike Lee)
This way, we have Iowa and Michigan as potential backups, with Colorado as a long shot
I won’t even touch Montana. Too much of a wild card, especially since they re-elected Buzz Lightyear last time round. Former rat governor Schweitzer would likely win this race in a walk, but Racicot would be our best hope.
I also can’t stress enough, replacing RINOS is just as crucial. Great opportunities in SC, GA, WY, MS, TN and NE to nominate solid conservatives.
And they never will admit that at least two of them, Angle in NV in 2010 and Akin in MO in 2012, were hand picked by Harry Reid. The Democrats spent money in the Republican Primary to nominate the weakest Republican candidate.
Until we sole that problem, and admitting it exists is the first step, we are going to continue to give away seats in the Senate.
In Iowa there’s a former Grassley Chief of Staff and a former US Attorney running. Decent 2nd tier guys but hardly inspiring.
M. Myers
People used to rant about the political bosses of both parties who met in backrooms and decided who ran for elections and therefore the fate of their party.
They often selected politicians who then owed them favors when they were elected.
The conclusion of political reformers was that these backroom pols were a bad thing for parties and the Republic.
But what reformers always overlooked was that these guys were pragmatic pros. They were all about winning elections, not being right on principles. They knew politics and more importantly,they knew the people who wanted to run, their follies and their hidden flaws that might be exposed and prevent them from winning. They weren’t about to support some crazy that might say something that would lose the election.
The extremes of both parties have never developed any political pros, although you could argue that the left now has some political operatives who have actually elected a Kenyan Muslim Socialist to the Presidency. :-)
>> Dole changed her mind and decided at the last minute that she really didn't want to run, so she threw the election. That, and anyone with a (D) next to their name got elected in 2008. <<
I would argue the race was Dole's to lose and she lost it. She was a well-known, powerful incumbent holding office in a state that is very GOP friendly on the federal level (North Carolina). Numerous other GOP incumbents in Bush states held onto to seats in 2008... Pat Roberts, Mitch McConnell, Thad Cochran, Saxby Chambliss, Lamar! Alexander, Mike Enzi, Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, and Jim Inhofe. (plus RINO Susan Collins easily won re-election as Obama carried her home state comfortably) We also won open Senate races with Jim Risch, Roger Wicker, Mike Johanns, and John Barrasso.
The GOP establishment loves to demonize conservative insurgents for shooting themselves in the foot and losing races that they should have won (Mourdock, Akin, etc.), but they will NEVER accept blame when one of their own steps in it.
I think the final nail in the coffin was when Dole ran the "Godless" ad against then-unknown Kay Hagan and it backfired. The media had a field day criticizing Dole for using a Hagan sound-alike to say "There is no God!" in the ad, and her approval ratings plunged. Losing an obscure RAT state legislator in North Carolina was really pathetic.
For most of his life, Barone was a Democrat, and he may still consider himself one, but he certainly is conservative nowadays. But, more to the point, he’s a straight shooter and knows more about U.S. politics than anyone alive (even though he was wrong about his 2012 election predictions, as were a lot of us).
Liddy Dole’s “godless ad” came very late in the race, Hagen was already leading in the polls. It certainly didn’t help though.
Horrible campaign by Dole.
It’s wouldn’t make much sense for him to still consider himself a democrat, remaining conservative democrats are mostly of the politically illiterate, dim bulb variety.
I believe that Bob Novak was a registered Democrat until he died.
He was an odd duck, Novak.
According to “Human Events” he just wanted to be able to vote in rat primaries in DC. Understandable.
Maybe all Republicans seeking office should be required to pass a test on the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and particularly the Bill of Rights before they're allowed to run as a Republican.
We also need to Prioritize those seats. Ie you get more bang for your buck is small inexpensive media markets. Also “upgrading” has its risk as well. Ask the folks in Indiana how that worked out for them..
So, using this criteria, Lets prioritize the Upgrades:
WY: inexpensive media, Good replacement check and check.
TN: Way more costly, Lamar! is a RINO, some good choices are available (Marsha Blackburn)
SC: Expensive, Don’t forget, Tim Scott also will be on the ballot. Anybody else see a problem with explaining that this republican good, that republican bad to a low information voter?
GA: Not red enough to assure winner in bloody primary takes general.
TX: Too expensive, money better utilized elsewhere.
“Take Backs”
Added Criteria: Open seats are easier to take.
How Republican is the electorate, margin in last 3 presidentals is a good rule of thumb.
SD: Inexpensive Media, Open Seat, Very Republican in Statewide races, poor candidate selection by dems.
MT: Open, inexpensive media, Most formidable dem chose not to run.
WV: Open, Reasonable media expense, Poor candidate selection on Dem. ( Is Capito just another RINO?)
AK: Begitch has baggage, Imagine the shear size of Alaska makes media expensive. Never voted for a budget in 6 yrs.
LA: Landrieu has always under performed. Her state lost 400k mostly dem voters after Katrina. Media is reasonalby priced. Please lets pick this up!! Very favorable Demographics.
AR: Pryor is vulnerable to the right candidate. Media is reasonable, more bang for the buck. Has not voted on a budget in 6yrs in majority. Favorable demographics.
NC: Hagan has not done anything for the state. Demographics and media are not as favorable as previous states; Has not voted for a budget in six years of the majority. Rubber Stamp for Harry Reid.
IA: Open, reasonable cost. Even Demographics.
MI: Open, expensive, fair demographics for right candidate.
CO: Udall is despicable, Media more than average cost, has not voted for a budget in 6 yrs of majority. Good place to undo OFA.
In Conclusion, My rankings in priority would be:
1: SD
2: MT
3: WV
4: LA
5: AK
6: AR
7: WY
8: IA
9: NC
10: TN
11: CO
12: MI
13: SC
14: MN I would really love to see Franken defeated.
15: GA
Thanks for Playing, CPT Clay
If Cotton runs, then AR will fall to GOP.
Kay will have no presidential coattails this time. Go Carolina! #NuthinCouldBeFiner
How about most of the Eighty Million Gun Owners?
#JustSayin
Powerful words: North Carolina - Greg Brannon (potentially the next Mike Lee)
I also can’t stress enough, replacing RINOS is just as crucial. Great opportunities in SC, GA, WY, MS, TN and NE to nominate solid conservatives..
Pick ONE
Thought he was happy w his seat on Ways and Means.
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