CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)

CNN ^

[Arthurio]

Washington (CNN) – It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

[PghBaldy]

Ugh - JUST FOUND IT - page 29:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans

The poll is garbage.

[CatOwner]

"The poll is garbage."

A case could be made that this poll says a lot. A D+11 sample was needed to get the race to 49-49, while Romney leads INDs by 22 (59-37). Even if this were D+6 and Romney led INDs by 11 (half), it would still spell trouble for Obama.

[Qwackertoo]

Andrea from the Romney campaign tweeted on the CNN poll:

In new CNN poll, Romney leads independents 59-35!! Topline appears tied, but sample is D +11 http://bit.ly/TEhqQa

[Red Steel]

It is spelled L A N D S L I D E!

[The_Reader_David]

I’m not sure whether the biased samples are due to the media trying to bias the polls or a systematic cause for non-response (Romney voters being more likely to hang up because they don’t want to talk to left-leaning pollsters). The strange effect of larger sample polls being more likely to tilt for Romney and smaller sample polls being more likely to tilt for Obama seems to be related, though I’m not sure I can come up with a good model of how.

[trappedincanuckistan]

+11 and it’s tied. Rofl.

[ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton]

My prediction is 0bama will get 43% of the popular vote.

[GeronL]

43% would be awesome. I would definitely prefer it.

47% would be historic and hilarious/ heh

[ari-freedom]

“Why don’t we make it D+20 and be done with it so that I can stop even caring about the election?”

If they can’t give their guy a clear victory, at least they can make it appear it’s close so that more people will be tuned in to CNN on election night.

[Raycpa]

This footnote may explain the high democrat count

BASED ON 307 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 111 REGISTERED
VOTERS WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 418
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS—

[crazydad]

Setting up the Republican and Romney stole the election”look there at the polls”. That is the only logical conclusion. They are setting us up for Democrat Gotterdamerung.

[PghBaldy]

That is true.

[Milton Miteybad]

As my tagline reads: The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.

We (Tea Party) are still here. We are mad as hell. We will win this.

Recommended e-mail for Chrissy Matthews, Ed Schultz, Rachel Madcow, et al, on the morning of Nov 7, 2012:

"See those gutters running ankle-deep with the blood of slaughtered Democrats? That's the handiwork of the Tea Party that you thought was dead and gone.

"This morning, there are XXX (insert alarmingly large number here) Democrats, including the soon-to-be former President, lying slaughtered on the electoral battlefield.

"If any of them were intellectually honest, all of these defeated Democrats would say that the Tea Party kicked the ever-livin' sh*t out of them, and that they all badly underestimated the Tea Party.

"The Tea Party is stronger than Jay Carney's hubris, more powerful than than the force Bob Beckel's belly exerts on his belt, and even more powerful than Rachel Madcow's jaws.

"Your tingling leg, Chrissy, as well as your callow cries of racism, are no match for the tens of millions of concerned citizens comprising the Tea Party.

"And now you know just how powerless you are in comparison to them.

"We, the Tea Party, just thought you'd like to know these facts, so that you may accurately report them, pal."

[GLDNGUN]

Where do you get +11% dem?

[Jet Jaguar]

Time Magazine never even considered the TEA party as a person of the year in 2010.

Biggest electoral shift in 90 years.

Big deal. Whoop.

[Milton Miteybad]

So we have to rub their recalcitrant little noses in it on November 6. If that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do. ;-)

[Jet Jaguar]

Oh, I will.

:0)

[Red Steel]

“693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”

Page 29

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

[The Fop]

Heck, 3 of the 4 major papers in New York City endorsed Romney, plus the weekly NY Observer. Only the NY Times endorsed Obama. The NY Post is solidly Conservative, but all the others switched from Obama to Romney this election.

Suburban Long Island has a ton of people, and after Sandy, they’re not too keen on how big government handles a crisis. Upstate NY is Conservative, and a lot of people in New York City won’t be voting because of Sandy.

So add NY to your list of states in play!

[The Fop]

Heck, 3 of the 4 major papers in New York City endorsed Romney, plus the weekly NY Observer. Only the NY Times endorsed Obama. The NY Post is solidly Conservative, but all the others switched from Obama to Romney this election.

Suburban Long Island has a ton of people, and after Sandy, they’re not too keen on how big government handles a crisis. Upstate NY is Conservative, and a lot of people in New York City won’t be voting because of Sandy.

So add NY to your list of states in play!