Posted on 11/03/2012 12:47:29 AM PDT by GonzoII
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE www.nationalreview.com
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Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests. Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier. But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:
If anything, Gallup understates the case. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a decisive ten-point advantage in partisan affiliation, 39 percent to 29 percent. When undecided voters were pushed to choose a party, the Democrats’ edge grew by another two points, to 54 percent to 42 percent. Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent. If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his party’s standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who “lean” one way or the other. The Pew Research Center has posted party identification data going all the way back to 1929. The data series suggests that this deterioration in the Democrats’ standing with American voters is nearly unprecedented. The only comparable meltdown occurred during the tumultuous years of the Vietnam War and the birth of the Great Society under LBJ, when the Democrats also suffered an eleven-point loss relative to their Republican rivals. If you are wondering which president defied the odds and steered his party forward during his time in office, try Ronald Reagan. From 1981 to 1988 the Gipper’s principled conservative leadership whittled the Democrats’ initial 14-point edge down to a mere five points. To be sure, the most recent spate of national polls include more Republicans than did the surveys conducted earlier in October. Nevertheless, they still give more advantage to the Democrats than Gallup’s aggregate data suggest should be the case. ABC/Wall Street Journal’s most recent poll, for example, includes 34 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans, the Investors Business Daily poll sets the Democrats’ advantage at seven points (38 percent to 31 percent), and an Associated Press survey comes in two percentage points more Democratic than Republican. Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen? — Michael G. Franc is vice president of government studies at The Heritage Foundation. |
I’m just going to be humbly confident for now. I don’t trust any of these poll outfits. All I know is, 0bama sucks.
Good article—I continue to call it 54-46.
This is not a close race—what we have here is a 1980 style polling debacle that could be seen (by cynics like me) as an attempt to create a horse race where none exists.
I too predict a landslide for Republicans with a squeaker win for control of the Senate. Let the prosecutions begin under a Guilliani AG!
I too predict a landslide for Republicans with a squeaker win for control of the Senate. Let the prosecutions begin under a Guilliani AG!
Obama does indeed suck. I think he will lose. I can’t wait for the stories of an angry Michelle and the mother in law start leaking out. Michelle and her mother have had it good, now they are going to have to move. Let the plates fly! And I’ll bet within a year, Baraq is either outed or comes out himself..
Let’s face it - the LSM wants to create interest so that people will tune in to watch their lousy network coverage and bias. Not that it will do them any good, of course, because most of us will only watch a reputable station. I also think all these polls and pollsters are doing the same thing - its called hype. They have to justify their jobs and people are anxious about this election.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. Who would care if we all knew the outcome beforehand? It would be a snooze fest.
Gallup’s got some guts!!
Gallup wants to stay in business by reporting accurately what is going to happen.
In other words he wants his polls to have credibility in the last couple of days of the election campaign.
A ray of hope: The liberal Austin American-Statesman reports that early voting is down in liberal Travis County but up in the rest Texas, which is, of course, Romney country. I hope this reflects a national trend.
I promised my wife that if Romney wins Tuesday, we will watch MSNBC all night to see the liberals implode. Might record it all so I can watch it over and over.
Let’’s see, each candidate has about a billion dollars... Now where does that money get spent in a “close” race? Hmmm... Oh yeah, more media advertising!
I saw this in Wisconsin too. The media kept telling us it was a dogfight , complete with polls, until the last few days when the polls had to ‘fess up and show Walker ahead. Walker need up winning with even more than predicted... and the media feasted on all the advertising spent in the campaign.
I’m with you, quietly confident...but will wait for 0bamas concession speech. The media are trying to remain relevant. They are the next target. Pravda in the U.S. must be dismantled or run out of town. I, too, will wait for video of various msnbc are leftie-stalwarts reaction.
The last four years have been miserable for us. I pray to God that the nightmare is over in three days.
now you know why the liberals are so hell bent to let anyone cross the border, to reverse he trend by flooding the counry with democratic voters (legal or otherwise).
I don't think this is quite the same kind of landslide in the making, but I've always sensed that Obama has been in so far over his head for years -- and he knows it.
Chris Wallace had an interview with one of Gallup's polling gurus. Chris was asking him how Gallup weights their D/R/I samples. His answer was that they don't. They ask questions about for whom you're voting, other questions designed to determine if you're a likely voter, and then party affiliation. Didn't see anything about if they subselect their results to normalize age, ethnicity, income, etc.
Pollsters who are subselecting based on party have to choose between 2008's lopsided results and 2010 reversal. Personally, I don't see anything in 2011 or 2012 that would indicate a flip back toward D+7 territory. Anti-Obama forces have not been mollified; If anything, they're more intense as a result of the Obamacare Supreme Court decision.
Gallup is standing out for their R+1 turnout prediction. I hope they're a touchstone; Would love to see a 52-47 and 300+ EVs. It's a weird situation, having so much polling data and no convergence. Personally, I think a pollster weighting anything except a nearly even D/R ratio is playing with fire.
I predict the media will seize on depressed turnout in NY/NY/CT to characterize Obama's downfall as something other than wholesale rejection of his agenda. Those states could cut their turnout in half and 0bama loses no EVs.
The key question, one being ignore by the media, is what is happening in Philly. PA is in play. If the storm impacts eastern PA turnout, it could turn PA red.
One last note: By Tuesday, a lot of NY/NJ voters will have been without power for a week and many will have seen little/nothing from the Federal government except FEMA forms. I don't believe they'll take it out on Romney.
Particularly when they find out that Democrat union bosses turned away help from utility workers who drove their bucket-trucks up from Georgia because they were non-union.
we just need one pict on drudge in the devastated areas of NJ with a sign that reads....”Now we know how the guys felt in Benghazi”
Mitt’s rally in Ohio last night has given me confidence. He had the crowd of 30,000 fired up.
But do you really think Obama will make a concession speech? He is a classless fool. I can’t see him humbling himself.
Change of plans.
Change... you can believe in.
He’ll put it out in a Twitter note #fail..epic ;-)
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