[GonzoII]

Gallup's got some guts!!

[Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America]

I’m just going to be humbly confident for now. I don’t trust any of these poll outfits. All I know is, 0bama sucks.

[cgbg]

Good article—I continue to call it 54-46.

This is not a close race—what we have here is a 1980 style polling debacle that could be seen (by cynics like me) as an attempt to create a horse race where none exists.

[chainsaw]

Gallup’s got some guts!!

Gallup wants to stay in business by reporting accurately what is going to happen.

In other words he wants his polls to have credibility in the last couple of days of the election campaign.

[djpg]

A ray of hope: The liberal Austin American-Statesman reports that early voting is down in liberal Travis County but up in the rest Texas, which is, of course, Romney country. I hope this reflects a national trend.

[Chainmail]

I promised my wife that if Romney wins Tuesday, we will watch MSNBC all night to see the liberals implode. Might record it all so I can watch it over and over.

[Dilbert56]

Gallup is a polling company. They have to have defensible means and reasonably accurate results if they're to stay in business. Other firms can afford to tailor their results to their clients. Gallup publishes theirs to the public.

Chris Wallace had an interview with one of Gallup's polling gurus. Chris was asking him how Gallup weights their D/R/I samples. His answer was that they don't. They ask questions about for whom you're voting, other questions designed to determine if you're a likely voter, and then party affiliation. Didn't see anything about if they subselect their results to normalize age, ethnicity, income, etc.

Pollsters who are subselecting based on party have to choose between 2008's lopsided results and 2010 reversal. Personally, I don't see anything in 2011 or 2012 that would indicate a flip back toward D+7 territory. Anti-Obama forces have not been mollified; If anything, they're more intense as a result of the Obamacare Supreme Court decision.

Gallup is standing out for their R+1 turnout prediction. I hope they're a touchstone; Would love to see a 52-47 and 300+ EVs. It's a weird situation, having so much polling data and no convergence. Personally, I think a pollster weighting anything except a nearly even D/R ratio is playing with fire.

I predict the media will seize on depressed turnout in NY/NY/CT to characterize Obama's downfall as something other than wholesale rejection of his agenda. Those states could cut their turnout in half and 0bama loses no EVs.

The key question, one being ignore by the media, is what is happening in Philly. PA is in play. If the storm impacts eastern PA turnout, it could turn PA red.

One last note: By Tuesday, a lot of NY/NJ voters will have been without power for a week and many will have seen little/nothing from the Federal government except FEMA forms. I don't believe they'll take it out on Romney.

[PJ-Comix]

We could be in for YEARS of DUFU comedy gold!!!

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Why does everybody seem to act as if the 2010 election never happened? Democrats lost something like 700 seats nationwide. The anger that grew in 2009 and 2010 has not abated one bit...it has grown.

[randita]

A lot of Reagan Democrats reached the conclusion that their party has veered so far left, they don’t recognize it any longer.

So they’ve just made it official and come home to the GOP. Or if they couldn’t make it that far, they’ve at least gone Indie.

[bert]

CYA

[hinckley buzzard]

They didn't do well in 2008, so they may feel they have soemthing to prove.

[Jane Long]

"If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his party’s standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who “lean” one way or the other."

More FAIL for 0.