Posted on 10/11/2012 6:39:55 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Thursday, October 11, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
Consumer confidence spiked immediately following last week’s jobs report which showed unemployment falling to 7.8%. However, after approaching the highest levels of 2012, the bounce quickly faded. Confidence today is back to the pre-jobs report level. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Americans now believe the economy is getting better. That’s exactly the same as before the jobs report. Fifty-three percent (53%) believe it is getting worse.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This is with a D +5 sample.
Hoping this doesn’t portend another bad trend.
C’mon America... don’t drink the kool-aid again..
I find Rassmussens D+5 sample very hard to stomach.
I think the poor guy is being blackmailed, or has been bought by a nice high dollar contract with the democratic communists in Chicago.
And also a very good and constant reminder that we have a ton of work to do before November 6. This is going to be a very tight race.
Statistical noise. Race is tied at 48%, at worst, which is still good, as the Marxist remains below 50%. VP debate will have minimal effect unless major gaffe occurs on either side.
more people are catching on to the rasmoosen rollercoaster
As I understand it, the D+5 sample is based on a dynamic model that averages self-response to party-identifaction over 21 days . . . thus going WAY back before the first debate. Since that debate, other polls have reported a dramaatic increase in “Republican” in those responses. You drop a few points from the D+5 and you have Romney well ahead, and in line with Pew, Gallup, and IBD.
Some minor changes are expected. The trend is what you watch.
I would not be surprised to see a slight shift back to Obama but basically the race is tied. The independents will break for Romney in the last couple days.
I am still confident, much more so than normal.
In 2008.....it was very bleak by this point. We can win this easily, and we can win it big.
I find Rassmussens D+5 sample very hard to stomach.
I think the poor guy is being blackmailed, or has been bought by a nice high dollar contract with the democratic communists in Chicago.
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I also think he is trying to sell his monthly service. If one candidate runs away with it, no one would want to sign up. I think all these guys play with the poll numbers until it’s close enough to effect their credibility.
I think even Rassmussen would agree with your point. Can't get elated or suicidal over one or even a few polls. The bottom line is Romney is creating some light between him and Obama. Its undeniable, if the election were held today Obama would lose, quite handily.
..if California is down to 14 points, the rest of the country is trending RED as well. It presently looks like Romney is at about 320 EVs. If Ryan cleans Bidens clock it may get worse...
Why do we try so hard to explain away bad news? Ras weights his poll based on how people identify. There is no doubt that identifying with the Dems is generally more popular than with Republicans.
Easily, anyone should be able to see that Dem Leftists and "Undecideds" constitute a majority right?
Well, anyone who SAYS they are undecided after 3.9 years of Obama (whether they really are undecided or not) is an outright psychotic useful idiot.
THAT is what should give you stomach upset.
While "independents" may break more for Romney, "Undecideds" might as well be solid Dem votes.
OTOH, we do our best at FR to divide up the "good and bad" GOP/GOPe.....even though if we jettison the weak half of the party then Issa/Chaffetz etal don't have enough votes for chairing hearings like yesterday.
The Dems love the numbers and will take all the good and bad leftists they can co-opt.
Wow! That is really disheartening... Can Americans REALLY be THAT stupid??
Or, rather.. are there REALLY THAT many Americans dependent on a government handout???
The answer to both of those questions scares the crap out of me.
Indeed... we have more work to do in the next month. Turnout, as always, will be the key.
I wonder why Ras switched to a D+5 sampling. He normally polls with a D+2 sample. According to information in his own website, 37% of the voters identify themselves as Reps, 33% identify themselves as Dems, the rest Indies and minor parties. Given this, shouldn’t Ras be polling R+4? If that’s what the current national Dem/Rep breakdown actually is according to his own firm?
” I think all these guys play with the poll numbers until it’s close enough to effect their credibility.”
They get away with doing that because people just pay attention to the numbers, not the internals. And most wouldn’t understand the difference between polling registered voters vs. likely voters.
I saw an interview with Ras on FOX a month or so ago where he stated he would be using mostly registered voters until right before the election, then would use likely voter samples.
This statement was ignored by the interviewer and not followed up on for whatever reason.
Actually if you look at the numbers you might question that view.
Self ID is about R+2.6 according to Raz. The Rasmussen D/R/I is D+5. That's a pretty big difference of 7.6. I think Raz is just being cautious. I expect that the D+5 will drift down to a reality of perhaps D+1 or so in his model over the last weeks of the campaign. If we get a D+1 election, Romney will win in a romp due to his big margin with the Independents.
I still find it hard to understand how Rasmussen justifies using a D+5 model when his own party ID data says R+2 (actually, R+3 if you round up)
Party identification doesn’t correlate with turnout (at the national level). Ras is smart in his assertion that history should be his guide. He clearly sees that the D+8 model of 2008 is wrong, but he also is rational to believe the pendulum won’t swing to an R+4 as this would be unprecedented. I’m sure he uses surrogate measures of voter enthusiasm to refine his turnout model, and these are subject to change as we move closer to Nov 6. As of now, I don’t see much to juice up Dem enthusiasm over the next few weeks. I sense all my Dem friends are very quiet and UN-enthusiastic. The debate last week was a real blow to their collective solar plexus, and R&R simply need to hold the line over the next 3 debates and give nothing new that can rally the communists.
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