I wonder why Ras switched to a D+5 sampling. He normally polls with a D+2 sample. According to information in his own website, 37% of the voters identify themselves as Reps, 33% identify themselves as Dems, the rest Indies and minor parties. Given this, shouldn’t Ras be polling R+4? If that’s what the current national Dem/Rep breakdown actually is according to his own firm?
Party identification doesn’t correlate with turnout (at the national level). Ras is smart in his assertion that history should be his guide. He clearly sees that the D+8 model of 2008 is wrong, but he also is rational to believe the pendulum won’t swing to an R+4 as this would be unprecedented. I’m sure he uses surrogate measures of voter enthusiasm to refine his turnout model, and these are subject to change as we move closer to Nov 6. As of now, I don’t see much to juice up Dem enthusiasm over the next few weeks. I sense all my Dem friends are very quiet and UN-enthusiastic. The debate last week was a real blow to their collective solar plexus, and R&R simply need to hold the line over the next 3 debates and give nothing new that can rally the communists.