Posted on 09/07/2012 1:39:18 PM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
Wow...no kidding, CU profs haul bums off the Pearl Street Mall to polling places, so this is kinda hugh...
Don’t tell those DUmmies who are shaking their piggy-banks to get more money to send to Obummer!
Any idea what kind of track record this Univ has in polling ?
Now that polling shows momentum for Romney in Ohio and Iowa, my weighted method has it as a 269 tie today. The direction of movement is toward Romney as about a month ago it had things 320 - 218 the other way. One caveat: since I am pessimistic about Romney, he is quite possible further ahead already.
All things being equal (under normal circumstances) if the DNC/ Obama show couldn’t fill the Panther’s Stadium (Bank of America Stadium for all of you who feel the need to correct everybody) then how the hell is he going to pull off a win in Nov? I know, I know... with Marxist’s, all things are possible (sorry God)...
do they have a link to past election predictions?
FWIW I remember hearing somewhere that this poll has accurately predicted every president since 1980.
I have heard they have gotten every election right since 1980 with the exception of 1.
They are even predicting Romney gets 1 EV from ME.
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
Thanks I hope they’re right again.
Interesting also (I think this is what I read) that the Gallup poll just prior to the conventions has predicted every winner, period. (Romney was up one).
The CU thing is a computer program, not a polling result. It basically looks at the economy of past election years and compares them to this year and extrapolates the results.
The problem I have with their theory is that FDR was re-elected in 1936 and 1940 despite a crappy economy.
BIGOTS!!! They are BIGOTS I tell you!!!!! Obama is the ONE. He DESERVES to win!!!!!
(Sarcasm)
Just for reference- (Intrade)
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.9%
CHANCE
Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
41.9%
CHANCE
I’m personally prejudiced toward the University model.
MF
What gives me pause is this model shows Romney taking Pennsylvania. Short of a miracle, I don`t see any way that happens. For Presidential elections, it`s pretty firmly locked down for the dems.
The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.
Its far more reliable than any poll since while people can lie to pollster about whom they’ll vote for, they don’t lie about where they put their money.
Material interest is a more powerful predictor of people’s intentions than sentiment, which is inherently changeable.
Really...Minnesota.??? That`s long-ago conquered territory. No friggin` way.
The debates are going to decide the election outcome. Obama’s odds look less favorable than they did before the Democratic Convention but he is still the incumbent and Americans are reluctant to vote out a sitting President.
That has happened only twice in the last generation.
One of those times was 1980.
But I sense the floodgates have started to be opened up when one Clint Eastwood talked about an “empty chair”.
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