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Obama's White Support Is Too Low to Win
Real Clear Politics ^ | June 22, 2012 | David Paul Kuhn

Posted on 06/22/2012 7:40:50 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot

President Obama does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008. At the same time, electoral data indicates Mitt Romney has not yet attracted enough of these white voters to capitalize on Obama's weakness.

Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.

Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 -- presuming all else remains constant since 2008 -- Romney would rout Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; election2012; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; obama; polls; romney
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Since at least 90% of blacks always vote Dem, whenever a Dem loses it’s because their white support was too low to win.


21 posted on 06/22/2012 7:59:56 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Haven’t you heard of the Congressional Black Caucasians?

While they tend to support Obama by a wide margin, there are a few dissidents in their numbers.

Seems like some of them think Obama hasn’t gone far enough yet.


22 posted on 06/22/2012 8:00:26 AM PDT by alloysteel (Fear and intimidation work. At least on the short term.)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Haven’t you heard of the Congressional Black Caucasians?

While they tend to support Obama by a wide margin, there are a few dissidents in their numbers.

Seems like some of them think Obama hasn’t gone far enough yet.


23 posted on 06/22/2012 8:00:40 AM PDT by alloysteel (Fear and intimidation work. At least on the short term.)
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To: bolobaby

6 months ago I really believed that if Mitty was the R nominee we’d see a Tea Party challenger with a lot of backing (financial and popular) on the ballot for POTUS.

Of course this would guarantee a win for Obama as he wouldn’t lose more than a few % (at most) of his support to a candidate like that. The election would look like 1992 and Baraq would win with a Clintonian plurality.

Here we are closing in on ballot deadlines for a lot of states and I don’t see it happening. Seem like most of the conservative leaders (including Palin) are backing Mitty.
As Mark Steyn says, we’ve got a very flawed candidate and it’s up to us to drag him across the finish line a winner.


24 posted on 06/22/2012 8:00:40 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: fwdude
I’d be beside myself with joy if they both lost.

*********************

Me too.

25 posted on 06/22/2012 8:00:46 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

So now we’re back to saying it’s racist to oppose Obama. Okay.............

Why can’t we talk about how Obama has completely alienated much of “middle America”, and moderate/independent voters? Why don’t we talk about the policies of Obama and the failures of this administration?

Doesn’t it greatly over-simplify things to say that race is the reason Obama may lose this election????

And speaking of that, didn’t we “prove” in 2008 that we are not racist, since America elected a black president then? Or does that not count in the racial grievance scorecard????


26 posted on 06/22/2012 8:02:21 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Verginius Rufus
I wonder who was the first candidate to win a Presidential election despite getting a smaller number of votes from white voters than his opponent

LBJ was the last Democrat to get more than 50% of the white vote.

27 posted on 06/22/2012 8:02:43 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Verginius Rufus
Come to think of it, Truman probably wasn't the first successful candidate to get fewer votes from white voters than his opponent--it may have been Garfield in 1880, followed by Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

And of course there was the election of 1824, where Jackson had more popular votes, and more electoral votes, than John Quincy Adams, but the number of non-whites voting would have been very small and not a factor in the outcome.

28 posted on 06/22/2012 8:02:48 AM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: alloysteel
Seems like some of them think Obama hasn’t gone far enough yet.

Until whitey's in chains picking cotton, they won't be satisfied.

29 posted on 06/22/2012 8:02:48 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Turn up the white guilt. I can hear the whining now.


30 posted on 06/22/2012 8:02:50 AM PDT by bmwcyle (Romney - not Obama - not a Conservative - not a real Christian)
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Obama”care” is the Death Knell for the United States of America.

The USA Federal Government is broke, and is forced to borrow 3 1/2 BILLION dollars from our grandchildren EVERY DAY!

This then is the Federal Grandchildren Tax, or FGT, separate from the FIT or Federal Income Tax that only 51 % of us pay.

2012 is the third year of the American Taxpayer Revolt, in spite of what our sorry politicians and apathetic Liberal Agenda Media try to tell us.

The Silent Majority is silent no more.

If Romney is elected he has promised to “keep the best parts” of Obama”care” and send it back to each of the 50 States, resulting in the Death Knell of each of the 50 States that choose to keep the Obama”care” Death Knell.

Right now there is a 50-50 chance that Obama will get re-elected.

No matter that Obama was the worst Federal Financial Steward EVER!

If Obama gets re-elected he will just declare, by Executive Order, that Obama”care” is legal, and thus the demise of America will be accomplished during his Reign of Obamanation.

If THE NINE SUPREMES knock down ANY part of Obama”care,” then Senate Minority Leader Son-of-a-Mitch McConnell and Esteemed Sobber-of-the-House Boehner will rush to replace the Court-damaged parts of America’s Death Knell.

The only possible positive outcome will be to ABOLISH FOREVER Obama”care.”

America cannot afford to continue Federal programs to buy votes with debt that we charge to our Grandchildren.

BTW, it is all very simple as illustrated by the words of Paul Harvey: “ WHEN YOUR OUTGO EXCEEDS YOUR INCOME, YOUR UPKEEP WILL BE YOUR DOWNFALL.”


31 posted on 06/22/2012 8:03:08 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: meadsjn

Isn’t Baraq still doing well in the dead people segment?


32 posted on 06/22/2012 8:04:55 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Palmetto Patriot

The Grand Irony would be Obama losing to Romney by an Electoral Vote number similar McCain’s 2-to-1 loss to Obama.

Considering the current economic and joblessness conditions, Obama could lose by 2-to-1. The only current indicator that seems to be showing some signs of improvement is gas prices — and those are going down because the rest of the economy is sputtering.


33 posted on 06/22/2012 8:04:59 AM PDT by TomGuy
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... voter turnout among blacks would be below 90%

Duh? I know voter turnout is never 90%. What I meant is that lots of previous black voters for Obama just won't bother to show up if they are no longer enthusiastic about his candidacy.

The Democrats are still facing a bloodbath in the down-ticket races.

34 posted on 06/22/2012 8:05:42 AM PDT by meadsjn (Sarah 2012, or sooner)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I GUARANTEE that writers like Eugene Robinson of the WA POST and other liberal pundits on MSNBC Etc. will be labeling the American Electorate as Racists if Obama loses this election. They are probably already writing their talking points.


35 posted on 06/22/2012 8:08:36 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: circlecity

You nailed it. It’s the racist dems that will cost Obama the election. The GOP won’t vote for Obama, not because it is black, they won’t vote for him because he is a liberal. It’s the democrats that have the same ideology but still wouldn’t vote for him that should be labeled racist.

Or drop the racist label all together and just put the blame where it actually belongs. People are dropping support for Obama because he is a post turtle.


36 posted on 06/22/2012 8:09:23 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
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To: who knows what evil?

It is easily copied for email use. Help yourself.


37 posted on 06/22/2012 8:09:49 AM PDT by Baynative (REMEMBER: Without America there is no free world!)
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To: MrB

I hope you’re right and I’m 100% wrong. I really think the bitch could win.


38 posted on 06/22/2012 8:16:31 AM PDT by panaxanax (Voting 'Third Party' will ensure a Communist-Marxist-Socialist dominated Supreme Court!)
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To: Baynative

Thought it was your own creation, and didn’t want to run off with it without permission. Thanks!


39 posted on 06/22/2012 8:19:50 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Verginius Rufus
"The polls are useful. They let Obama know how many votes have to be manufactured to win."

You know those 16 to 30 year old Hispanics who allegedly have been here for five years who are going to get work permits? You can bet they are also going to be registered to vote - legality has nothing to do with it.

40 posted on 06/22/2012 8:29:25 AM PDT by Truth29
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