Posted on 01/18/2012 8:04:52 AM PST by wolfman23601
The race for the Republican presidential nomination is now nearly even with Mitt Romney still on top but Newt Gingrich just three points apart.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul captures 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent (4%). Another four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.
Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 34% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. Paul’s a distant third at 14%. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney.
Indicative of how fluid the race remains, just 41% of likely GOP primary voters nationally are certain of how they will vote at this time. Most (51%) say they could still change their minds, and another seven percent (7%) haven’t made an initial choice yet.
The jump in Gingrich’s support nationally comes after a Monday night debate in which most analysts said the former speaker did very well. Immediately prior to that debate, Romney’s lead had grown in South Carolina. Romney also has a big lead in the January 31 Florida Primary.
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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Still, 70% of Republican voters nationally believe Romney will ultimately win the party’s nomination. Just 13% think Gingrich will get the party’s nod. A plurality (43%) continues to believe Romney would be the strongest challenger to Obama, but 29% now think that of Gingrich, up from 17% two weeks ago. Paul remains the GOP candidate viewed as the weakest potential challenger.
Gingrich and Perry have been especially critical of Romney’s performance as a venture capitalist at the Bain Capital firm and have highlighted the job losses from some of his investments. But 59% of likely GOP primary voters feel that Romney’s business experience is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 20% think it’s chiefly a reason to vote against him. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.
Gingrich led the pack with 38% support, and Romney was a distant second at 17% in late November. But the former House speaker fell back under a barrage of negative ads and media stories. Santorum surged early this month following his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses.
Voters nationally are more evenly divided on the question, but a plurality (48%) still thinks Romney would do a better job than Obama in dealing with the economy.
The former Massachusetts governor is still the best liked of the GOP hopefuls, with favorables of 68%. Santorum is viewed favorably by 59%, Gingrich by 58%, Perry by 41% and Paul by 34%.
Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Romney posts a similar 33% to 23% lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters, but that’s down slightly from two weeks ago. Gingrich has been pushing for conservatives to rally behind his candidacy to stop the more moderate Romney from getting the nomination.
Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among GOP voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.
Romney also holds modest leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Those voters prefer Gingrich over Romney by nearly two-to-one – 36% to 19% - with Santorum at 16% and Paul at 12%.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination. Ten percent (10%) will opt for Obama instead, while eight percent (8%) would vote for a third-party candidate. Paul’s supporters continue to be the ones most likely to vote third party, with 29% saying they would do so.
Just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters think the country is heading in the right direction, and only 12% even somewhat approve of Obama’s performance as president. Eighty percent (80%) believe it is at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win the election in November, including 45% who say it is Very Likely.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry...and their Super PACs...need to run ads against Romney only.
Something’s defintely going on! You’re sure right about that. I was almost unmad at him yesterday, and just about to order more BlueBerry Tea. Well, NOT now.
His defense today of Romney is outrageous! I sure hope he’s not back on the oxy. I thought he might have been celebrating on his birthday (drinking) and that was A-OK, but today, he’s just outrageous. Defending Romney? Get real.
Romney is rich, we don’t care, but Romney is the wrong man, and the timing for a rich man couldn’t be worse. Too bad.
Like the old adage says, “timing is everything.”
GET LOST ROMNEY!
From your lips to God's ear. I pray that the electorate sees thru the obvious ruse hatched by the mainstream ELITES in this country -- and no I don't see the aforementioned as a contradiction in terms -- in both the media and in politics to once again manipulate an election to maintain a corrupt status quo.
“Which Rick? Perry or Santorum? or both?”
Both.
“Why is that idiot Santorum running ads against Gingrich?”
A) Santorum is no idiot.
B) He and Newt are vying for the same voting block, Romney voters are not going to switch to Santorum. Therefore, he has no reason to go after Romney voters.
I can tell that you (as are many others) emotionally invested in your candidate winning. I on the other hand have no candidate as mine dropped out. I like Santorum, Newt and Perry all equally and for differing reasons.
My statement that “Rick” needs to get out is far more strategy than how much I “like” a candidate. On a personal level Newt makes me want to take a shower, but he is the only one that can beat Romney in S. Carolina and beyond.
He also contrasts nicely with Obama on several issues both near and dear. At this point I’ll back Newt and hope he wins and is NOT Nixon redux.
Agree. So far it Newt’s pacs have gone after Romney.
NEWTMENTUM!!!!!
If Rick did throw his support behind Newt, Gingrich would basically owe his nomination to Santorum.
That’s a hell of a bargaining chip when considering a running mate (see also: from quasi-swing state of PA).
It looks like Newt may gather enough momentum to topple Romney on Saturday, especially if he has another excellent debate performance tomorrow night.”
Bank on it. He’s just getting warmed up.
NEUTRON BOMBING HAS COMMENCED! THANK YOU, SOUTH CAROLINA!!
With all the negative stuff coming out about Romney, plus the upcoming debate, Saturday should be looking good for Newt!
HOW DIID YOU SLIP THROUGH THE LOWER BASEMENT PLUMBING?
HOW DIID YOU SLIP THROUGH THE LOWER BASEMENT PLUMBING?
Unless someone drops out like Perry or Santorum, Newt is going to come in second, and the establishment is going to quickly say the race is over, lets unite!
New information on Romney:
Romney made his money investing in aborted fetus disposal company
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/17/mitt-romney-bain-capital-stericycle_n_1211228.html
Lie to pollsters. Make their resuls unreliable, so politicians will have to really say what they think, blind.
“Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.”
He’s not dropped. He was at 16 before. Do I need to pull up the earlier poll?
Santorum and Perry need to get out of the way.
If the other Newt supporters were like you I could see myself doing the same. I wish they all were rather then calling Santorum supporters ‘idiots’, etc.
FYI, to Newt fans. The race card is being used against Newt BIG TIME.
This is a great counter response.
*sigh*
No, he’s not the ‘last hope for conservatism.’
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