Posted on 01/18/2012 8:04:52 AM PST by wolfman23601
The race for the Republican presidential nomination is now nearly even with Mitt Romney still on top but Newt Gingrich just three points apart.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul captures 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent (4%). Another four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.
Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 34% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. Paul’s a distant third at 14%. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney.
Indicative of how fluid the race remains, just 41% of likely GOP primary voters nationally are certain of how they will vote at this time. Most (51%) say they could still change their minds, and another seven percent (7%) haven’t made an initial choice yet.
The jump in Gingrich’s support nationally comes after a Monday night debate in which most analysts said the former speaker did very well. Immediately prior to that debate, Romney’s lead had grown in South Carolina. Romney also has a big lead in the January 31 Florida Primary.
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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Still, 70% of Republican voters nationally believe Romney will ultimately win the party’s nomination. Just 13% think Gingrich will get the party’s nod. A plurality (43%) continues to believe Romney would be the strongest challenger to Obama, but 29% now think that of Gingrich, up from 17% two weeks ago. Paul remains the GOP candidate viewed as the weakest potential challenger.
Gingrich and Perry have been especially critical of Romney’s performance as a venture capitalist at the Bain Capital firm and have highlighted the job losses from some of his investments. But 59% of likely GOP primary voters feel that Romney’s business experience is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 20% think it’s chiefly a reason to vote against him. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.
Gingrich led the pack with 38% support, and Romney was a distant second at 17% in late November. But the former House speaker fell back under a barrage of negative ads and media stories. Santorum surged early this month following his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses.
Voters nationally are more evenly divided on the question, but a plurality (48%) still thinks Romney would do a better job than Obama in dealing with the economy.
The former Massachusetts governor is still the best liked of the GOP hopefuls, with favorables of 68%. Santorum is viewed favorably by 59%, Gingrich by 58%, Perry by 41% and Paul by 34%.
Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Romney posts a similar 33% to 23% lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters, but that’s down slightly from two weeks ago. Gingrich has been pushing for conservatives to rally behind his candidacy to stop the more moderate Romney from getting the nomination.
Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among GOP voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.
Romney also holds modest leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Those voters prefer Gingrich over Romney by nearly two-to-one – 36% to 19% - with Santorum at 16% and Paul at 12%.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination. Ten percent (10%) will opt for Obama instead, while eight percent (8%) would vote for a third-party candidate. Paul’s supporters continue to be the ones most likely to vote third party, with 29% saying they would do so.
Just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters think the country is heading in the right direction, and only 12% even somewhat approve of Obama’s performance as president. Eighty percent (80%) believe it is at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win the election in November, including 45% who say it is Very Likely.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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This particular poll was conducted on one day only (Tuesday, Jan 17), so it is entirely post-debate.
This a huge moment in political time....
Gingrich is getting it done and he has the cajones to change the Nation and put it back on track to a growth economy while getting the Deficits under control.
Gingrich will win the South.
From your keyboard to God's ears.
YOUR DEFENSE AND SUPPORT OF ROMNEY is getting old.
Maybe you haven’t heard, but we’re solidly against Romney here.
GO NEWT!
I assume that Milt and Newt’s numbers are within the margin of errror for the poll?
I have had two calls on my house phone, two different days) from the Newt campaign. My phone is about four feet from my chair. The caller (likely automatic) hangs up before I can get to the phone.
Today, I’m putting the phone next to my chair.
I ordered a Newt cup and magnetic bumper sticker for my car. They will be here any day now. I’m sure he gets some of the money from these sales.
If you buy a cup or anything else in his store, you will have a historical reminder of this time in our history.
When that cup gets here, I’m drinking coffee out of it every day and saying a prayer he will prevail and save this country.
Romney has gone scorched earth again against Newt Gingrich.
The snake can’t stand to fight on the issues because he loses.
GO NEWT! WIN THE DEBATE ON THURSDAY!
GOOD on you! I’m sure his campaign ges the profit from the sales. I still have all my Sarah Palin stuff from ‘08!
Like you, I believe in the power of prayer and I pray for Newt and for his safety.
Exactly.
...and Newt will fight back in kind, which spoiled Romney and his Establishmentarians can’t handle.
I wish Palin and Cain would come out and officially endorse...with this momentum in play.
You ROMNEY SUPPORTERS make me nauseous.
Where is the zot? I’d like to be in before it happens. Can you notify whomever to get this done?
The Ricky’s need to get out, NOW.
From your lips to God’s ears.
GO NEWT GO.....
IBTZ
Smoke signal sent. ;>)
IBTZ!!!
Which Rick? Perry or Santorum? or both? Newt has polled well thanks to the last debate. Why is that idiot Santorum running ads against Gingrich? he should be running ads against Mitt!!!!!! heard Rush talking about a massive scorched earth ad that Romney is running against Newt. Romney is using Jim (the loser) Talent to trash Newt as Speaker of the House. Trying to insinutate that Newt has a tendancy to go off the deep end and Rush stated that it is having an affect on the voters. Let’s HOPE Gingrich goes after Romney during the debate tomorrow night and if Santorum is smart..he should go after Romney too. NO MITT, NO SANTORUM, NO PAUL...GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT
I think Rush is bipolar. One week he’s for Newt, slamming the liberal Romney. He said two weeks ago Newt was right to go after Bain because of the way Romney went after Newt in Iowa. Now Rush sees that Gingrich just might come out on top in this race and all the sudden he praises Romney. The man needs to get off the oxyconden. He changes his mind more than a woman.
You want Romney to go after Gingrich???
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