Posted on 01/18/2012 8:04:52 AM PST by wolfman23601
The race for the Republican presidential nomination is now nearly even with Mitt Romney still on top but Newt Gingrich just three points apart.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul captures 13% support from likely primary voters, and Texas Governor Rick Perry remains in last place with four percent (4%). Another four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.
Among Republican primary voters nationwide, 34% think Romney is the GOP candidate who would do a better job managing the economy, but almost as many (29%) feel Gingrich would do the better job. Paul’s a distant third at 14%. When it comes to national security and defense, Gingrich is the clear leader: 43% think he would do a better job versus 18% who say the same of Romney.
Indicative of how fluid the race remains, just 41% of likely GOP primary voters nationally are certain of how they will vote at this time. Most (51%) say they could still change their minds, and another seven percent (7%) haven’t made an initial choice yet.
The jump in Gingrich’s support nationally comes after a Monday night debate in which most analysts said the former speaker did very well. Immediately prior to that debate, Romney’s lead had grown in South Carolina. Romney also has a big lead in the January 31 Florida Primary.
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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Still, 70% of Republican voters nationally believe Romney will ultimately win the party’s nomination. Just 13% think Gingrich will get the party’s nod. A plurality (43%) continues to believe Romney would be the strongest challenger to Obama, but 29% now think that of Gingrich, up from 17% two weeks ago. Paul remains the GOP candidate viewed as the weakest potential challenger.
Gingrich and Perry have been especially critical of Romney’s performance as a venture capitalist at the Bain Capital firm and have highlighted the job losses from some of his investments. But 59% of likely GOP primary voters feel that Romney’s business experience is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 20% think it’s chiefly a reason to vote against him. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.
Gingrich led the pack with 38% support, and Romney was a distant second at 17% in late November. But the former House speaker fell back under a barrage of negative ads and media stories. Santorum surged early this month following his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses.
Voters nationally are more evenly divided on the question, but a plurality (48%) still thinks Romney would do a better job than Obama in dealing with the economy.
The former Massachusetts governor is still the best liked of the GOP hopefuls, with favorables of 68%. Santorum is viewed favorably by 59%, Gingrich by 58%, Perry by 41% and Paul by 34%.
Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Romney posts a similar 33% to 23% lead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters, but that’s down slightly from two weeks ago. Gingrich has been pushing for conservatives to rally behind his candidacy to stop the more moderate Romney from getting the nomination.
Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%. Romney holds a double-digit lead over Gingrich among GOP voters who are not members of the grassroots movement.
Romney also holds modest leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Those voters prefer Gingrich over Romney by nearly two-to-one – 36% to 19% - with Santorum at 16% and Paul at 12%.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of all Republican primary voters say they will vote for the GOP candidate even if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination. Ten percent (10%) will opt for Obama instead, while eight percent (8%) would vote for a third-party candidate. Paul’s supporters continue to be the ones most likely to vote third party, with 29% saying they would do so.
Just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters think the country is heading in the right direction, and only 12% even somewhat approve of Obama’s performance as president. Eighty percent (80%) believe it is at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win the election in November, including 45% who say it is Very Likely.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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2012 Republican Presidential Nomination CBS News/NY Times Romney 28, Gingrich 21, Santorum 16, Paul 15, Perry 7 Romney +7
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Reports Romney 30, Gingrich 27, Santorum 15, Paul 13, Perry 4 Romney +3
GO NEWT!! Go Santorum! Get Out of the Way Perry!
It looks like Newt may gather enough momentum to topple Romney on Saturday, especially if he has another excellent debate performance tomorrow night. If the Romney Book sees play, it could destroy Socialist R.
This should serve as the latest proof to the Santorum supporters that Rick is fading fast. I know that Newt may not your first choice, but please consider supporting him. Look how close we’re getting to defeating Romney!
". . . But he (Romney) simply doesn’t have the capacity to explain with some color and sort of force conservative ideas."
Which is precisely why he has no business going up against an ideologue who does "have the capacity to explain with some color and sort of force" the ideas of redistribution.
Krauthammer has been slow to come to admitting the obvious fact that Romney doesn't "explain" conservative ideas because they are not part of his intellectual DNA, as they are with someone who has immersed himself/herself in the ideas of America's founding history.
Gingrich's quick analysis of opposing ideas, combined with an ability to put them in historical context, didn't just come about by osmosis. They came about through a lifelong study of history. In recent decades, Ronald Reagan is the only American president who was so familiar with our founding ideas that he could weave them into discussions on "issues" of the day; thereby giving clarity to threats to liberty.
By the same token, the Fall 2012 opponent has studied, been mentored in, and well understands the ideology and strategies for presenting his case for redistribution, government planning, and control--all the while masking them in benevolence and "taking care" of those to whom he appeals, even as his policies are enslaving future generations.
His Republican opponent needs to be able to rebut, rebuke, and reveal the cloaked tyranny encased in his appealing message to those who see him as a benevolent leader, not a threat to their posterity's Creator-endowed right to be free.
Gingrich is right. If the goal of the primaries is to determine a candidate who can bring such clarity to the ideas of conservatism that Obama's counterfeit ideas will be defeated, then Romney, in the words of Krauthammer, "simply doesn't have the capacity" to do it. At least, he has not shown it to this point; and that "capacity" cannot be coached. It must be a natural outgrowth of understanding.
Isn’t the Iowa Republican Party expected to release the final count for that state’s caucus? I think it holds a lot of importance, because if Santorum actually did win that contest, then the whole “inevitability” argument about Romney doesn’t hold water. At this point, Romney will have only won a single state... one that he was expected to win.
HE’S BACKKK!
I’m been saying, the history of all these poll leads (Perry, then Cain, then Newt, then Romney) are all etherial.
Romney’s bubble can be as easily pricked as the rest-
We need open honest debate— and not a coronation by the Establishment. Let’s thoroughly vet our candidates in all the States.
Perhaps ...just perhaps, AMERICA is going to decide who will run against Obama — not the media, or the establishment. Americans are perhaps NOT going to make the same mistake twice.
Go Newt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, while Santorum still gets 18% support from Very Conservative voters...
Among Tea Party Republicans, it’s Gingrich 39%, Romney 21% and Santorum 20%....
Go Newt!! Make a Deal, Rick! And Crush Willard the Lib!
Sigh.
I really want Rick Santorum to be our nominee, but I think things are coalescing around Newt as the real deal to be the stop-Mitt choice.
Newt is very likely in front of Romney in South Carolina as this is a national poll.
Gingrich jumps 11 points in two weeks. That’s real good poll vaulting for a man his age! :)
I love Santorum, but I think it’s time for he and Perry to step down and endorse Newt.
Get out Rick.
These numbers could include at least one night of post-debate polling. I’ll be interested to see what polls coming out on Friday say, which should be completely post-Monday’s debate in their 3-day cycling.
Whoa! Great news. GO NEWT GO! I have been listening to Rush this morning but he has spent the first half hour defending Mitt. I don’t know, but I will see what he says during the rest of the show.
This is positive news for Newt and the non-Romney movement. I hope SC listens to Sarah Palin on Saturday and we avoid a January coronation.
Romney lives by polls, so scorched earth against Newt has to be in the works again, by his SuperPAC -— ads he won’t know about of course. /s
STAY FOCUSED NEWT! ROCK THE CNN DEBATE ON THURSDAY!
GO SARAH! GO NEWT!
It’s Newt !!
Here we go !!
Statistical Dead Heat Nationally....
The last chance for conservatism...I beg people to consider the consequences of allowing Romney to win and losing to Obama.
I missed the first half hour. The second has been much the same. Get off the defense of Romney, RUSH!
Newt news PING.
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