Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
To start, a rep from every candidate gets a chance to speak. No one spoke for Bachmann, Huntsman, and gasps from the crowd--Romney. You are allowed to wear campaign gear, and put up signs. Mittens had none in my precinct. He tied for 2nd in my precinct last go around.
But because no one spoke for him, that doesn't mean you couldn't vote for him tho. The Newt speaker was engaging, very positive, and a good speaker. The Paul speaker read his own script, but didn't smile, and looked very nervous. The Perry speaker did a good job. And the Santorum speaker was kinda like the Paul speaker, didn't project well in a public setting.
My precinct is one of the more Republican precincts in the county. Very economic oriented, and not as much evangelical/social conservative. Thanks to my stirring speech for Steve Forbes in 2000, he won my precinct with 45% of the vote and Bush only got 25%. That kinda shows you how my precinct rolls.
Anyway, numbers were down a little, which is a bit scary. Nice night, though it is HS basketball night, and that may have kept some of the parents of HS aged kids home. I remembered a lot more sub 30 year olds last time around. Not many tonite.
Votes in my precinct: Paul 36, (my guess, for economic reasons), Santorum 35(came on strong late, and got the socon vote), Newt 18(may have been helped by the speaker for him on the uncommitted), Perry 16 (much like Newt, I'm guessing a lot of the not Romney/Paul vote), Mittens 12 (there was a gasp from the crowd when his number was called), Bachmann (toast) and Huntsman (wow!) both had 5.
Funny...Karl Rove & Joe Trippi were just telling Chris Wallace that it’s Romney’s night. Then Chris says—but he’s not in the lead and it’s a three-way tie so far. They then explained that this was great because Reagan didn’t win Iowa and last time Rudy was in the lead and never went to Iowa.
Have to tell you ..although Iowa is not that important..I wanted Newt to finish in the top 3. However, with Santorum UP there...he will be the new victim of the Romney multi million dollar attack machine. Santorum not vetted as well as the other candidates...he better watch out for Fox, Rove and all the rest that are in bed with Mitt. Maybe it’s the sister wives for Romney? LOL
Three-way tie now.
Santorum, Romney, and Paul all at 23%.
C210N wrote:
FB page, looking at the counties with more than 100,000 in pop...
Johnson/Linn -> myth
BlackHawk/Polk -> Paul
Woodbury -> nothing yet
You’re right, but I’m sure you know that the strength of Iowa conservatives is in the western rural counties which are slow to report. The big cities have fewer Republicans and they are less likely to turn out for caucuses. The rural voters are who dominate Republican caucusgoers in most years.
Cox Radio reporter Jamie Dupree in Iowa at GOP caucus reports on Twitter:
@jamiedupree
Romney also beats Santorum in West Des Moines 211; Cain got one vote
11 minutes ago
@jamiedupree
Mitt Romney wins West Des Moines precinct 212 in Polk County easily
19 minutes ago
http://twitter.com/#!/jamiedupree
They can keep thinking that. 4 years from now, there will be less of them around, and more people who are opposed to the stupid expensive foreign wars.
Those people are losing the under 30 vote in Iowa in a Republican caucus 58 to 10 because of their globalist “invade the world/debt slavery to bondholders” foreign policy.
What do you think the age breakdown will be in the other primary states?
GO DAVID!! I’m pulling for Santorum.
Santorum 6,067 24% Romney 6,060 24% Paul 6,018 24% Gingrich 3,502 14% Perry 2,733 11% Bachmann 1,553 6% Huntsman 165 <1% Cain 10 <1%
You really trying to compare the Keyes fill in at the last minute carpetbagger candidate to Newt? Really?
Pray for America
I thought Simpson was fun on wheels for a very long time, but I grew up and he grew senile, period.
Ron Paul is the major player covering Mittens backside....unless of course he’s pulling a McCain for Obama...might be both...either way Ron PAul isn’t in it to win..he’s in it to play the game he loves.
I know one thing — FOX News is in the tank for Romney. Their coverage is nauseating.
My kids never complain about taking care of the missus and myself when we get near death. Mind you, we are both mid fifties and will probably work til we die.
But my parents had it good, those long retirements that allowed them to retire after all the wars they fought.
Most of us boomers were pretty spoiled, but today’s kids are ultra spoiled.
Dude, read some history of the US and Muslims and get a clue.
Santorum has moved into first place with 25% of the vote counted!
I’m getting the “upset” feeling... not in the stomach sense, no, in the Santorum sense!
Santorum has leads in 22 counties; Paul 13; mythy 13; newt/michelle both 1.
Over 100k counties: 2 for paul; 2 for mithy.
21 percent of precincts in and it’s clearly going to be a blowout for Paul, Romney, and Santorum, each with about a quarter of the caucusgoers. Everybody else is dividing the remaining quarter of the caucusgoers.
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