Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
So is Coulter going to continue backing Romney now that an authentic conservative like Santorum has emerged as a front-runner???
YaH Hooo! Ride that creep into the ground! Go newt Go!!! Nobody's going to oppose anyone taking down the dirty mittens! We'll all support that!
If it is five votes for Santorum over Romney, it will be a "PHOTO FINISH TO A DRAW" (in other words, they will not proclaim who won, and if they don't get the same number of votes exactly their intrinsically as to be a "winner".)
If it is five votes for Romney over Santorum, it will be "Romney Narrowly Wins", or "Romney Wins", or "Romney Tops Iowa Caucuses" or some such other bullsh*t. Take it to the bank.
Romney wins by 8 votes per Iowa GOP Party Chairman.
I don't think so either. A lot's changed.
I was just paraphrasing Fox’s reporting. I then switched CNN who actually had two ladies from Clinton county, including their county chair, who’d been awakened via the state party and who appear to confirm the total pushing Mitt to victory by 14 votes statewide. BUT they said the precinct called in its votes to them at 7:48 and they’d called them in to the state party promptly hours ago. It appears the state goofed. I wonder whether their tabulation at an “unknown location” to prevent hacker attacks resulted in the misunderstanding. I also suspect many long time election watchers realize having confusion in a few precincts somewhere out of 1700 is pretty normal.
Eight votes - Willard wins.
Good, its about time someone took off the gloves and started beating Romney with a stick.
So there were 9 voters who could have brought Santorum all the way over...and people think they can stay home and it won't matter.
Either way Santorum cooked Romney tonight....bacon crisp!
Romney wins by 8 votes. They didn't give the 'final' votes for the others. However the GOP chair said they have 2 weeks to MAIL in the certified copies to the state party. No 'recounts' in Iowa, but with a race this close it's conceivable the certified winner may be different. As it is this 8 vote margin doesn't track with what Fox and CNN were saying, which implied a 14 vote margin for Mitt.
I hope she comes around and endorses a conservative rather than Romney.
Romney Iowa 2008 - 30,021 25%
Romney Iowa 2012 - 30,015 25%
WOW! That’s weird.
I’ll be doing county by county analysis tomorrow night. Got to go to work at 7.
Doesn’t matter really....the story is all about Santorum shoe string budget vs. the Romney fortress of wealth....great story we’ll be hearing about for the next few days....we can sleep well tonight...tomorrw Newt’s PAcs going to come out swinging....
weird indeed....
Been there done that on two and four hours sleep over Christmas...but you will surely sleep well after Santorum’s story tonight.
That’s exceedingly strange.
I realllly want to hear the crap later today that emerges from the mouths of water carriers such as Ann Coulter and Laura Ingraham for Mitt Romney. What will the pseudo-Conservative Trojan-Horse skanks they say about Santorum? What will they say about this razor thing win which is really no mandate at all? How will they spin it?
Of course it would be icing on the cake for Santorum to actually win it, but still, that close of a difference, they are going to have a very strange RNC/Establishment narrative tomorrow on their shows or in interviews.
True, but 75% of those voting, voted for someone else. New tagline coming up...
Is there a math/statistician here on FR that can compute the odds of that happening? a 6 vote rise in 4 years?
That’s practically unbelievable considering people turning 18/dying, coming to/leaving the state. To say nothing of shifting issue opinions in a 4 year span, the economy, war, unemployment etc. I can’t imagine how it’s possible to be that static. It’s like someone froze the state in time.
Looking forward to watching them squirm.....did you see post 2010? Worth the look see. Interesting.
Santorum! Challenge His Emmience, the coronated one, Sir Mitt Romney to a no teleprompter, no notes, 3-hour Lincoln-Douglas type Cain/Gingrich debate. Issue the challenge tomorrow. Watch him decline. Then call him “chicken” all the way to Dixville Notch, NH.
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