2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[CedarDave]

Santorum now up by FIVE votes with 98% reporting. Incredible.

t minus 2% percent and counting (ever so slowly!).

[onyx]

McCain is predictable. Romney can get all the liberal, eestablsihment endorsements he wants. Every last one of them only has one vote each, just like us.

[Prokopton]

since half of all voters are female Newt got 13% of the female vote and 13% of the male vote.

That's not necessarily how it works. Newt could have got all female votes or all male votes or anywhere in between.

[gov_bean_ counter]

I don’ think Romney's numbers can be moved. Romney represents a percentage of the party that HATES the rest of us. They are the Rocky/New England/Elitist wing of the party who would rather see for more years of Obie than a conservative Republican president. They may be better served by going after the little nut job.

[kabar]

It all boils down to the ability to raise money. Romney, Perry, and Paul are the top fund raisers. The question is whether Santorum can use this victory to raise money and be viable in the long run.

Perry may very well throw the sponge in even though he has the money to go on. Bachmann, unfortunately, is finished. Huntsman is in it for reasons of ego. He is a non-entity. IMO we will be down to three or four candidates by the time we hit FL and SC. Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and possibly Santorum if he can raise some money. Santorum is the Last of the real Conservatives left.

[MaxMax]

Wife introduced Romney as next President. No dear, he will not be.
I politically do not like or trust Romney and wouldn't want to know him personally.

Romney talking like he already has this in the bag.

Bah

[Windflier]

So repugnant. Total ‘establishment’ player, blatant anti-conservative moderate, double dealing, two faced creep.

Agree wholeheartedly, but perhaps McCain's endorsement will wind up costing Romney, instead of helping him (which I can't imagine it would).

[gswilder]

Pickup truck? LOL. I thought we conservatives were the smart ones. No grand conspiracy going on in Iowa folks. The vote is what it is. Not going to change the delegate count. Santorum did well and will get a 2-3 day positive press cycle regardless of if he wins by 100 or loses by 100. Santorum will have to prove he can now get some backers and win another state. Iowa really not much of an indicator of things to come.

[gov_bean_ counter]

There is a article somewhere else on FR that goes into the dynamics of the formula.

[Deo volente]

[tcrlaf]

I KNOW all of you have been sitting on the edge of your seats waiting for the tweet of America’s Premier traitor fat guy, Micheal Moore, so here it is!

“The crazy that dares not speak its name: SANTORUM!
I present 2 u the evidence. Exhibit A: In 2006 he found the WMD!”

[jjotto]

Those missing small county precincts may be just because NO ONE showed up! It happens.

[Theodore R.]

Santorum may finish a strong second in NH, which could help immensely in SC, but we shall see. It’s a fast process but sometimes it seems endless. NH voters are often moved by momentum: GHWB called it the “Big Mo.” McPain’s endorsement should hurt Romney if anything.

[teg_76]

Oh, I’m sorry. I don’t agree with you. I guess there must be something wrong with me. Yes, I’m a big Chris Matthews fan. That must be it.

If you can’t handle someone who has a different opinion without making it personal you’re on the wrong site champ.

[STARWISE]

Gotcha .. I don’t have a camp, but it sure
does the heart good to see this shocking
turn that was never projected and in spite
of all the Romney certainty. One small step ...

[onyx]

Yep, well, it is what it is. I haven’t been thrilled or even all that happy with this primary since Sarah Palin’s decision on October 5, 2011, so with every drop out, or fall in the polls, I just lose more interest in this election. NO ROMNEY, NO PAUL.

[antceecee]

Yes... that deserves a good hearted YAWNNNNNNNN!!!!

[reaganaut]

I love Pizza Ranch, especially their cheeseburger Pizza.

[CedarDave]

Mitt’s giving his stump speech... I like his wife much better than him.

Same white shirt, same blue tie, same suit -- the only time he looked informal was for his interview with Mike Wallace on FNS a couple of weeks ago.

[Think free or die]

Beautiful photo.