Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Stop that. Perry is not going to drop out
I can’t imagine Ron Paul will go anywhere.
I still think that Santorum’s pulling ahead is a fluke...sort of like his turn now to be in the lead.
That leaves Newt v. Romney. And there’s a ton of folks who remember that Romney = total RINO flip flop, and will pull for Newt instead.
I won’t vote for Romeny. Ever. For any reason.
What in God’s name do you expect her to say?
Perry won’t drop out now. He is going to S.C.
It’s disgusting and amazing. Hypocrites, all.
I reckon that’s why vicious attack ads continue: because they’re effective.
Wrong. Gingrich was a baptist the majority of his life.
He wins SC going away.
Someone without a job, watching their child slowly wither away from hunger does not care too much if Stan and Frank get “married.”
Everybody wants somebody to drop out.
If CainConservative (by the way where is Cain, CainConservative?) had a nickle for everytime he’s said Perry should drop out, he’d have enough money to support his candidate.
Not sure who that is, he’s changed 5 times. That’s consistency for you.
You may be unaware of this, but in the South the Catholic population is increasing rapidly because of northern transplants and the high birth rate of legal immigrants.
New parishes pop up every month. I have friends from PA and Michigan who have moved south and helped to start new parishes in Florida and SC.
The demographic is really changing down there.
That’s my point. If he continues on and draws 10% of the vote, he could be the reason why Romney wins the nomination, aka, a spoiler. I don’t believe the Governor would want to play such a role.
Exactly. And since Mitt Romney cannot overcome his 25%-ceiling of support, the only thing that now stands in the way of having a conservative GOP nominee at this point is Newt Gingrich.
I agree, he'd do it better than Gingrich.
Bachman in Iowa has not been a factor in numbers or money for weeks. This makes me think her endorsement means very little to actually no one. Certainly not Romney. Of course, Romney may be kind to her given the interference she ran that so benefited him.
Wow, you are so right. I mean why do any other states need a Primary? Let's just go with Iowa, and scrap all the other states.
It will be interesting to see the gender breakdown in Iowa for Gingrich. With his 13% finish in Iowa, he did not get a whole lot of votes. And if one assumes there is a 50-50 split
of male-female votes, then he got 6.5 % women voters. Not good.
4 percent left, Santorum still up by a hundred.
I’m told Dubuque is what’s left. Still wayy to close to call.
“Newt is going to New Hampshire. Rick Perry is going to SC in the morning.”
Exactly. He will arrive in Aiken, S.C. early Wed. Perry doesn’t like to lose an election -— and he never has lost one.
And this is as good as he's played in every presidential contest he's been a part of. Romney simply does not connect with the majority of center-right voters. Never has - never will.
Too bad he can't see it, and will persevere until someone royally creams him over several primary votes.
Nor I. As for the eventual winner...I’m not that good a fortuneteller.
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