Posted on 12/20/2011 9:41:14 AM PST by TBBT
It's been a bad week for Newt Gingrich in our early state Republican polling, but we still find him with a good sized lead nationally. He's at 35% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Ron Paul, 7% for Michele Bachmann, 6% for Rick Perry, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
On the surface that's good news for Gingrich but looking under the hood it's more bad news to some extent. We haven't done a national poll in 5 weeks, too long ago to make a good comparison, but on 6 state polls we've conducted since Thanksgiving in Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico Newt has always had a lead of at least 19 points over Romney with the average of those polls coming out to a 27 point advantage at 42-15. His present national lead represents some serious shrinkage from that. He's also seen a 13 point decline in his net favorability from our last national poll, going from +45 (68/23) to +32 (60/28).
The most interesting finding in this national poll might be that Romney's net favorability has improved 15 points in the last month from just +9 (48/39) to now +24 (55/31). Republican voters are starting to warm up to him in a way that could pave his path to the nomination. Beyond that Romney is clearly next in line to take the national lead if Gingrich continues to falter.
Not only is he 11 points clear of Paul, his closest competitor, but he's the 2nd choice of 35% of Gingrich voters compared to 16% for Bachmann, 11% for Perry and Santorum, and only 6% for Paul. If Newt's people keep jumping ship they're likely to end up with Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Romney won’t win Nevada. Newt will. And even Utah, Romney will get trounced.
But you repeat myself;) LOL!!
Random acts of asinine - by the media - to get the desired results.
lol
BOOM!
Go Newt!
Simple, Iowa will go to Paul and show their irrelevance. Oh, the insider money that’s being wasted.
The question should be:
“Iowa Caucus, what does it matter?”
It’s meaningless. It should be ignored.
This is a problem for Gingrich. The game is to outperform expectations in the early primaries and build on that as others drop out. Candidates who poll well nationally often lose support to the early performers and never make it to those states where they are polling well (early).
Gingrich will have to lower expectations in Iowa and NH or a 3rd place finish could start the slide.
The entire political landscape will change following the Iowa caucuses. Not counting Ron Paul, whoever comes in first and second, (or second and third if Paul comes in 1st, or 1st and 3rd if Paul comes in 2nd, etc) will be catapulted to the top in the next round of national polls...at least until NH!
Newt is not conservative. He is a LIBERAL. Look at his voting record.
I know he did a good thing once, in getting a balanced budget. How long did he last?
What is wrong with posting articles favorable to the candidate you support? There are pro-Romney, pro-Perry, pro-Bachmann posts on here all the time. If you don’t like a particular candidate and hate to see favorable articles then simply pass them by and move on to some other article.
I just don’t like to see people manipulated by seminar posters.
If Newt wants to attack other candidates he should grow a pair and do it instead of relying on surrogates.
He has a 90% ACU lifetime voting record that is not Liberal.
I think we may have a good sense of who will win by March, but there will still probably be three candidates until the convention; Romney, Non-Romney (Bachmann, Perry, or Newt), and Paul.
There is no good reason for Paul to get out, even if he is way behind. He’ll have his support in every state. Romney and a Non-Romney will duke it out. The remaining Non-Romney’s will have dropped out by then.
| As we get closer and closer to IOWA, most of these polls are turning to sh*t-push polls. I think PPP is the most accurate. Note the CBS poll has a whopping 36% undecided, so it is trash. with new PPP, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls added ...Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
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| Gallup also "conveniently skipped" ALL data from Thursday Dec 15th. That was the day when LOTS of media attention was focused on Newt's superior debating skills, and the day of his strong performance in the debate. Best in debate against Obama? Posted on December 13, 2011 |
There is an important "trick" to remember about most MSM polls as we we get closer to these first eleven state contests... (most of them are lying)One recent poll highlighted something VERY IMPORTANT,,, I had overlooked before.Take a look and see if you see what it is... If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (asked of Republicans, Republican Leaners, and Independents) take your time, look it over again and see if you catch it... ok... give up? ... Here is what it is... MOST of the polls being 'fed' to us include the magical 'Republican leaners' but WHO exactly is a 'Republican leaner?'. Think about that... They are NOT Registered Republicans, or they would be included under "Republican" They are NOT Registered Independents, or they would be included under "Independents" They must be partially (A) 'Rats' that 'might' be willing to vote for a Republican in the GENERAL election. And partially (B) people who are not yet registered at all, and probably won't until October. (by my estimate that group is ~70% 'RAT's, because they are SO MUCH more certain of whom they prefer than even Registered Republicans) But regardless... it makes almost no sense to be including them in the polls leading up to the NOMINATION because almost all early states have CLOSED primaries or caucuses. ONLY Registered REPUBLICANS will have a say in the nomination. Of the ELEVEN contests before Super Tuesday,,, 8 are CLOSED to anyone but REPUBLICANS Only New Hampshire (where Romney will win by 20 points because it is in his backyard, and 25% of his mansions are there, and the NH vote counters and ballot guards can manufacture ANY vote total they wish), ...and South Carolina (where Gingrich should mop the floor with a Mitt) ...and Minnesota (where Dayton and the Soros SOS will guarantee a Romney win) ...HAVE OPEN contests. Everywhere else, GOP'ers ONLY shall decide, and notice that within THAT population, Newt still leads significantly. PS: Super Tuesday has 11 more contests. Newt could win 8 or more of those because 5 are closed to anyone EXCEPT GOP, plus more three are (Georgia, Tennesee, and Wyoming) where they do not like governors from MA). Yeah! ( Gingrich-haters, please do NOT address or reply to me.) |
Good analyses. The effort by the MSM to control the GOP primaries is something that angers me to the extreme. I am beginning to change my thinking on my decades of unwavering support for the GOP nominee. The degree of push for Romney by Fox News is disgusting and their on-going negative reporting on Gingrich is outrageous. After preaching about the need to support the GOP nominee, no matter who, I am so angry that I no longer hold that position. And if the GOP establishment runs in another “chosen” candidate, it will push me even further to a position I would have never thought I would consider, a write-in or support for a third party candidate.
Would certainly help Newt if Cain would give him a Christmas present.
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