[Future Useless Eater]

As we get closer and closer to IOWA, most of these polls are turning to sh*t-push polls. I think PPP is the most accurate.

Note the CBS poll has a whopping 36% undecided, so it is trash.
Note the ABC poll keeps secret how many people they counted, so it is trash. I will assume they asked 100 people for weighting purposes.

Note the CNN poll says "436 A" and just like the last several CNN polls, it is as strongly biased toward Romney as it could possibly be without many people screaming 'bullsh*t'.

And I won't count the Gallup poll again until they come to a full set of 5 days in a row that include totally new data, which will be Dec 17th-21st.
...oh, and PS: Gallup has gotten VERY secretive about the internals of their poll, which is another sign it is fudge.

So then PPP poll (which HAS seemed quite accurate for several months) and has the largest sample size, AND it uses Likely Voters, is probably close to correct. But Karl Rove will call it an "outlier" on Fox n Friends.

Note who has been doing the loudest bad-mouthing lately, (Romney, Perry, and Bachmann) and the directions their weighted rolling averages have turned.


IMO, Gingrich never REALLY dipped as close to Willard as this chart would imply, but the lyin' MSM polls made it look that way.


.

with new PPP, CNN, ABC, and CBS polls added ...

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP   [as of Dec 21st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08, &
Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically

Gingrich=29.6%	Romney=23.9%	Paul=11.9%	Bachmann=6.7%	Perry=6.3%	Santorum=3.8%	Huntsman=2.3%	

[...it may be that this chart has grown beyond the capabilities of FR's posting??? If so, see my profile page for the chart.]

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)


Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, this chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.





(Gingrich-haters, please do not address or reply to me.)

[Future Useless Eater]

[Jukeman]

Good analyses. The effort by the MSM to control the GOP primaries is something that angers me to the extreme. I am beginning to change my thinking on my decades of unwavering support for the GOP nominee. The degree of push for Romney by Fox News is disgusting and their on-going negative reporting on Gingrich is outrageous. After preaching about the need to support the GOP nominee, no matter who, I am so angry that I no longer hold that position. And if the GOP establishment runs in another “chosen” candidate, it will push me even further to a position I would have never thought I would consider, a write-in or support for a third party candidate.

[chris37]

I don’t have any doubt that polls are being used as mind control, they always have been.

I do know this. I have a bunch of conservatives family members and close friends. All of them were Cain supporters, none of them are Newt supporters, including myself.

Anecdotal I know, but it is what it is.