Cain surges despite scandal (Cain 32% Romney 15%)

Poll Position ^ | 11/2/11 | Eason Jordan

[TexasFreeper2009]

Our new national poll finds Herman Cain is the breakaway frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination despite the fresh disclosure that he faced sexual harassment in the 1990s.

More Republicans and independents than ever say they want Herman Cain to win the Republican nomination.

Our national scientific poll was conducted last night, two days after the Cain controversy erupted and one day after Cain emphatically denied ever committing sexual harassment.

Among Republicans, Cain tops his next closest challenger, Mitt Romney, 33%-18%. They were followed by Newt Gingrich at 17% and Rick Perry at 12%.

Independents favored Cain over Romney 30%-11%, with Ginrich at 9% and Perry at 6%.

Among Republicans and independents combined, Cain garnered 32%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 13%, and Rick Perry 9%.

The poll question: “Who do you want to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination – Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, or someone else?”

Our national scientific telephone survey was conducted November 1, 2011. We interviewed 1,032 registered voters – 417 Republicans (margin of error +/- 5%) and 343 independents (margin of error +/- 5%). The combined tally of 760 Republicans and independents has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

[TBBT]

You people sadden me...

You press Cain on any issue and he begins to fold like a house of cards. It was hard to listen to his stint on Fox New’s Center Seat. It’s blatantly apparent that there isn’t any “there” there. Deep as a teaspoon. Especially on foreign policy - nobody home.

I like Cain personally. I just think that there is a good chance that he’s going to get creamed if he continues as he has been. Winging it won’t cut it for long. It will be interesting to watch the Lincoln-Douglas style debate with Newt.

Maybe we’ll get lucky and he’ll improve. I hope so, because watching him so far has left me too uncomfortable with the idea of getting behind him.

My fear... Repeat of ‘08. Leave it up the Republican primary electorate to choose the worst possible alternative.

[MestaMachine]

Lovin’ this.

[LZ_Bayonet]

" Cain/Gingrich = Dream ticket"

Cain spoke highly of Gingrich in an interview the other day. Their debate should be illuminating in this regard.

[driftless2]

Your problem is Newt excites no one. You can talk knowledge of foreign and domestic issues all you want and throw in political theory, and Gingrich will probably top everyone. But practically nobody gets excited about Newt. After Palin dropped out of consideration, nobody has generated excitement like Cain. He’s not necessarily my number one choice, but he’s far more likable than Gingrich. You can call it charisma or whatever, but Tea Party conservatives like Cain because he, of all the candidates, most closely represents them. Career pols like Gingrich just get respect.

[NoGrayZone]

Amen!

[manic4organic]

Karl Rove is deeply saddened.

[NoGrayZone]

"I would love to see a Cain/Gingrich ticket"

I like it! And your fallback idea as well. The only thing that still bugs me is him and nancy on that damn couch talking about gloBULL warming.

Newt is a very smart man, I wonder why he did that?

[LibsRJerks]

You people sadden me...

You press Cain on any issue and he begins to fold like a house of cards. It was hard to listen to his stint on Fox New’s Center Seat. It’s blatantly apparent that there isn’t any “there” there. Deep as a teaspoon. Especially on foreign policy - nobody home.

I like Cain personally. I just think that there is a good chance that he’s going to get creamed if he continues as he has been. Winging it won’t cut it for long. It will be interesting to watch the Lincoln-Douglas style debate with Newt.

*****

Cain doesn’t fold — he stands right up to all of it and gives very direct answers as far as I can see. I have no idea how you come to these conclusions.

Face it. Cain can surround himself with the best of foreign policiy advisors and let his HEART and SOUL guide him and lead the group — not his HATE and distain of America. Not an aplogy “for” America. It comes shining through — it’s what a lot of people get about Cain and what you obviously don’t get about him, likely because you may not even value such a thing in a candidate.

And it really matters. I want to know where my president’s HEART is concerning this country, it’s founding, it’s greatness, and its true standing in this world as a beacon of liberty and freedom. The president will NEVER make these decisions on his own, no matter if he is the best foreign policy expert on the planet. It will be a group effort — but the LEADER needs the right HEART.

And you so quickly forget — no chance of America EVER calling the shots anywhere if we don’t get this economy back on track. Our debt will make us impotent against the evils of this world.

[TBBT]

Your problem is Newt excites no one. You can talk knowledge of foreign and domestic issues all you want and throw in political theory, and Gingrich will probably top everyone. But practically nobody gets excited about Newt. After Palin dropped out of consideration, nobody has generated excitement like Cain. He’s not necessarily my number one choice, but he’s far more likable than Gingrich. You can call it charisma or whatever, but Tea Party conservatives like Cain because he, of all the candidates, most closely represents them. Career pols like Gingrich just get respect.

You make my point...

Experience, knowledge, depth, competence, communication skills - non of that matters.

What matters - the ability to "excite", become a fad, create the bandwagon for all to jump on...

The '08 campaign of the "ONE" (aka Obama)was all about "excitement". How's that working out?

[NoGrayZone]

"This weekend’s Lincoln-Douglas debate between Cain and Ginrich should help Cain project a man of dignity and strong faith (you’ve all seen Cain’s speech before)."

I could just imagine them announcing that if one or the other wins the primary, the other will be their VP!

[Future Useless Eater]

Great find!

Do we have any idea if RealClearPolitics will include this poll? They HAVE used Poll Position before when they were with InsiderAdvantage.

RCP should be shamed if they used "Poll Position" polls in 2008 but REFUSE to use them now! For example in 2008 there are lots of examples...

InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position

www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Florida_101508.pdf

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
Oct 13, 2008 – InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position polls are conducted by telephone with registered voters. Like all other major polling ...

• [PDF] 

  InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Georgia Sample: 637 registered ...

  www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Georgia_102808.pdf

  File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
  InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Georgia. Sample: 637 registered likely voters. Margin of Error: +/- 3.8%. Conducted Oct 27. President: McCain: 48% ...
  

• Print - RealClearPolitics - Articles - Print Article

  www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www...Cached

  Aug 20, 2008 – The InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll released today shows Dole and Hagan both just below 40 percent each, with nearly 14 percent ...
  
  
  
  
  Moderator: Can this thread be made BREAKING NEWS? This is hugh! This overshadows ALL the Slime/Scandal threads about Cain, and this story needs MORE ATTENTION!
  

  ---

  
  By the way, here is my most recent 4-poll weighted 4-poll rolling averages chart. I will update it again to add today's Quinnpiac and Polling Position results soon.

  With 3 most recent YouGov polls included

  
  Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus recent weekly national polls from YouGov).

  I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.

  
  

  Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Nov 1st]
  plus the "YouGov" 10/25, 10/18 and 10/11 polls inserted chronologically

  

[TexasFreeper2009]

actually I HAD it in breaking news, but for some reason it was removed.

Even though it’s the most important news of the entire day.

[NoGrayZone]

We don’t even know if barry is 1/2 black. We have never seen his LFBC.

Perhaps it states 1/2 Arab.....which would explain a lot.

[driftless2]

It's not that none of that matters, it's the unfortunate fact that personality/likability counts for a heck of a lot in politics. No matter how much they know or how smart they are, if the candidate arouses little enthusiasm in the electorate, they will go nowhere. But don't make the mistake of assuming because one candidate can recite facts better than the others, that candidate would make a great president.

Don't forget that Newt has his flaws, for instance supporting climate change legislation. There are no perfect candidates. Newt is not perfect, and neither is Cain. However, Newt has been around and is viewed as more establishment than outsider. Cain is the ultimate outsider. And conservatives are looking for the candidate that is most likely to demolish the liberal edifice that crushes the spirit of the country. For many conservatives, that person looks like Cain.

[TBBT]

Cain can surround himself with the best of foreign policiy advisors and let his HEART and SOUL guide him...

That's a fine way of looking at it if you see the Presidency as nothing more that a figure head position... But if so, then why bother electing a candidate at all? Why don't we just skip the bull and hire (elect, form a commission of, or whatever) the best advisers?

Even if the election thing is nothing more than pomp and circumstance, you still got beat the other side to get your "advisers" in power. Why select an empty suit to go to battle with the theirs?

[murron]

I’d like to see some numbers from Rasmussen or some other well-known pollster. I’ve never heard of this poll.

[Sal]

Newt is a very smart man, I wonder why he did that?

He just miscalculated the way the wind was blowing.

[LibsRJerks]

Why select an empty suit to go to battle with the theirs?

****

I don’t know ...ask the Democrats why they did this very thing.

I don’t feel Cain is an empty suit. He might not have a PhD. in foreign policy ... I believe his strengths will lie in economic policy. Sometimes you can’t have it all.

Right now we have neither.

[RockinRight]

The scandal is backfiring. People are seeing that it's a witchhunt.

I fear it could hurt his general election ability, however.

[The Old Commander]

Newt is a smart guy, but he is like the professor of sexology who knows 250 ways to make love, but can’t get a date.