Posted on 10/24/2011 9:35:41 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
Cain leads Romney 31% to 21% among all Republican voters, and by 38% to 19%among Tea Partiers (who make up nearly half of all Republican voters).
(Excerpt) Read more at scribd.com ...
My response to that is, “bless her heart”.
(Southerners know what I mean :-)
At this point in time, RCP lists 6 national GOP polls completed in the last 14 days, but three of those will expire in the next few hours.
Currently RCP lists: Cain=26.0 Romney=25.0 Spread=Cain+0.5
In a few hours, unless a new poll arrives
... RCP will list: Cain=26.7 Romney=28.3 Spread=Romney+1.7 (based on just 3 national polls!)
But Real Clear Politics does not report or average in the results from the Economist/YouGov polls. I think they should.
These look like legitimate polls, and RCP should especially consider them since the other national pollsters seem to not want to report recent results.
If RCP were to include YouGov polls, The most recent five would look like this...
1st choices: | Date | Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Perry | Bachmann | Paul | Santorum | Huntsman | Spread |
YouGov | 10/15 - 10/18 | 273*GOP | 31 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 3 | Cain +10 |
YouGov | 10/8 - 10/11 | 273 GOP | 33 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 4 | Cain +15 |
YouGov | 10/1 - 10/4 | 273 GOP | 21 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | Cain +4 |
YouGov | 9/24 - 9/27 | 279 GOP | 11 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Romney +1 |
YouGov | 9/17 - 9/20 | 266 GOP | 8 | 15 | 7 | 34 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 2 | Perry +19 |
2nd choices: | Date | Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Perry | Bachmann | Paul | Santorum | Huntsman | |
YouGov | 10/15 - 10/18 | 273 GOP | 19 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
YouGov | 10/8 - 10/11 | 273 GOP | 16 | 21 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 | |
YouGov | 10/1 - 10/4 | 273 GOP | 21 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | |
YouGov | 9/24 - 9/27 | 279 GOP | 12 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
YouGov | 9/17 - 9/20 | 266 GOP | 7 | 27 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
sum 1st+2nd choices: | Date | Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Perry | Bachmann | Paul | Santorum | Huntsman | |
YouGov | 10/15 - 10/18 | 273 GOP | 50 | 39 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 6 | |
YouGov | 10/8 - 10/11 | 273 GOP | 49 | 39 | 22 | 24 | 11 | 18 | 4 | 6 | |
YouGov | 10/1 - 10/4 | 273 GOP | 42 | 34 | 14 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 6 | |
YouGov | 9/24 - 9/27 | 279 GOP | 23 | 37 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 5 | |
YouGov | 9/17 - 9/20 | 266 GOP | 15 | 42 | 15 | 51 | 12 | 18 | 8 | 4 |
I find the last table (my own creation) interesting... Gingrich is more favorable (for 1st or 2nd choice) than Perry, and Bachmann is more favorable than Ron Paul.
*The reason for estimating 273 likely GOP voters, is that in recent weeks each poll was of 1000 general population adults, and...
-The US census says that of the adult population, 64.9% are registered to vote.
-YouGov only asked those who were registered to vote whether or not they are likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses.
-And only 42% (of those registered) said they would likely vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses.
-Only those likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses were asked which GOP they liked... (Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Huntsman, Paul, Cain, etc...)
1000 x 64.9% x 42% = 273 likely GOP voters.
With TWO most recent YouGov polls includedMuch like what the government does with unemployment statistics, the following chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus 2 from YouGov). I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.
Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest 20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Oct 24] |
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Thank you.
This could be done using the SEVEN STATE polls taken LAST WEEK; Texas, and six others.
One could assume those might represent the country as a whole pretty well, since these included TWO super liberal BLUE states (NH and HI) four battleground purple states ( IA OH FL SC) and one red state (TX)
If anything, the rest of the country might even lean MORE toward Cain as a whole.
I averaged these latest state polls from LAST WEEK to determine a composite, as follows:
Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Bachman | Huntsman | Santorum | Spread | |
U.S. COMPOSITE | 3449 GOP | 30.7 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | unknown | Cain +8.5 |
TX | 844 GOP | 33 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | Cain +14 |
OH | 500 GOP | 34 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +15 |
HI | 293 GOP | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +12 |
SC | 476 GOP | 32 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +16 |
FL | 505 GOP | 30.2 | 32.6 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2 | NotAsked | Romney +2.4 |
IA | GOP RV | 26 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +8 |
NH | 409 GOP | 24 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5 | NotAsked | Romney +15 |
Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Bachman | Huntsman | Santorum | ||
U.S. ZOGBY | 1214 GOP | 45 | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
“Everyone should watch that 40-min speech. And everyone should watch Gingrich at the Faith and Freedom conference.
Those are our two best choices.”
They are both inspiring speakers and spontaneous, articulate thinkers - a HUGE contrast to the current TOTUS who, when caught off script, sounds like a dunce, frequently saying “uh...uh...uh...” Total phony.
Heads up....The Texas Tea Party Patriots will host a modified... Lincoln-Douglas debate,.... with Republican candidates Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain confirming their attendance.
More details coming but its on Drudge....this would prove very interesting....I intend to watch it!
They are both republican intellectual eggheads...not bad, just too into their heads. Cain is a commonsense man, just what the Dr. ordered!
Like hell. I plan on staying as inebriated as possible for as long as I can.
Listening to Fox today, I was simply flabbergasted at the routine distortions coming from talking heads AND anchors about Herman Cain.
Friday, Martha McCallum interviewed Herman Cain and asked him some very point blank questions which he answered just as pointedly and honestly as ever I heard ANY candidate answer, yet tonight subbing for Greta, she flat out lied and said that Herman Cain’s position on abortion was unclear, and repeated the talking points we keep hearing over and over. I was so furious, I shut off the TV and am seriously considering eliminating Fox as my channel for news.
They did this to Sarah Palin, now they are doing it to Cain, and it is just maddening.
LLS
:-)
Thanks for the PING! It is interesting that there are two major % groupings of Candidates now as shown on the YouGov plot.
Now that Perry has revealed his flat tax idea, it will be interesting to see if he can join the 25 % level. If so, at whose expense?
Thanks! Would you please let me know when AND if it can be viewed online?
McCallum’s a lib. But Greta often irritates me as well. I still think FNC’s better than the others but, as you, I don’t like their direction more and more.
Wonder how a REAL conservative/tea party-geared network would go over. Probably very well!
I do like the way FNC always has people from both sides on as far as debates/panels.
“and remember ailes ORDERED the network to stand down and NOT critique the new president...”
I guess Glenn Beck, Lou Dobbs, Sean Hannity and Eric Bolling (who just yesterday held up a white board with “Obummer” printed in large letters on The Five) didn’t get that memo :-)
Thank you for posting this thread. I am so glad to hear that Cain is still in the lead! They are certainly not talking about it on FOX anymore.
incidentally, in listening to Doug Urbansky last night, he tells about Westwood One merging with something? Globe. They’ve changed all those sickening PSAs, But Urbansky, an ardent Cain supporter, didn’t mention Herman Cain at all, while I was listening to him anyway! Has the edict gone out around the electronic as well as the printed media that Cain’s name is now a NO NO? And just who owns the something? Globe? It wouldn’t be the Mormon Church, would it?
Thank you for posting this thread. I am so glad to hear that Cain is still in the lead! They are certainly not talking about it on FOX anymore.
incidentally, in listening to Doug Urbansky last night, he tells about Westwood One merging with something? Globe. They’ve changed all those sickening PSAs, But Urbansky, an ardent Cain supporter, didn’t mention Herman Cain at all, while I was listening to him anyway! Has the edict gone out around the electronic as well as the printed media that Cain’s name is now a NO NO? And just who owns the something? Globe? It wouldn’t be the Mormon Church, would it?
Obviously the bulk of your post was written by a naive an closely controlled Mormon, who has swallowed the lies of the media whole.
Thank you for continuing to support Herman Cain. So far he is a safe place for our generous donations by check.
Herman Cain, Inc.
Friends of Herman Cain, Inc.
P.O. Box 2158
Stockbridge, Georgia 30281
The website address for credit cards has not been working. Does anyone know if it has been fixed yet?
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Hope Romney has peaked.
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