Posted on 10/18/2011 1:47:02 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
PPP (D) Ohio 2012 GOP Primary Survey
- Herman Cain 34% [10%] (13%)
- Mitt Romney 19% [20%] (23%)
- Newt Gingrich 14% [8%] (16%)
- Ron Paul 7% [8%] (13%)
- Michele Bachmann 6% [14%] (11%)
- Rick Perry 5% [21%]
- Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (0%)
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Gary Johnson 0%
- Someone else/Not sure 12% [16%] (18%)
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 29%
- Might end up supporting someone else 71%
Second Choice
- Herman Cain 17%
- Newt Gingrich 14%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- Michele Bachmann 11%
- Rick Perry 10%
- Ron Paul 5%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Rick Santorum 1%
- Gary Johnson 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 27%
If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Herman Cain 50%
- Mitt Romney 36%
If the Republican race for President came down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
- Herman Cain 58%
- Rick Perry 24%
If the Republican race for President came down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
- Mitt Romney 50%
- Rick Perry 35%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Herman Cain 68% [41%] / 13% [20%] {+55%}
- Newt Gingrich 56% (42%) {46%} [53%] / 32% (34%) {29%} [27%] {+24%}
- Mitt Romney 55% [52%] (55%) {53%} [53%] / 33% [30%] (25%) {26%} [25%] {+22%}
- Michele Bachmann 46% [52%] / 32% [26%] {+14%}
- Rick Perry 40% [50%] / 42% [15%] {-2%}
- Ron Paul 32% / 49% {-17%}
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
- Yes 33%
- No 54%
Survey of 500 usual Republican primary voters was conducted October 13-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Political ideology: 37% [41%] (38%) {34%} Very conservative; 36% [38%] (39%) {46%} Somewhat conservative; 18% [16%] (17%) {16%} Moderate; 7% [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (2%) {1%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 11-14, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-12, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 28-30, 2010 are in parentheses.
Right and I don’t consider Paul a ‘serious’ contender (but certainly serious enough to raise millions and garner overheated support). I think we’ve seen close to the end of both Perry and Bachmann. As far as political damage Perry took a fatal hit. Cain’s challenge is 999. He is in danger of becoming a one-trick pony.
Overlooked yet interesting fact:
Newt Gingrich continues his steady climb, and is about to overtake Mitt Rimney in several states.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...........
If you’re going to keep 5% Perry then you have to keep 7% Paul! lol
I had the same tagline for a long, long time. Changing it to the URL for this thread. Thanks for the post.
That and he can help deflect during the debates. He can keep the pressure on the RINOs and the moderator.
They’ve been saying that for at least 2 weeks now. Maybe longer and his numbers keep rising.
Wouldn't surprise me a dang bit! If he does, there will be a lot of crow served around this site.
Self inflicted at that!
Dang!
You just slapped some folks whom I believe have been duped hard enough to leave a mark.
Good job!
Maybe so. It wouldn’t surprise me if he did, but if Cain picks up 30% of Perry’s support, that’s the end of Willard.
After the debate Somebody talked to Rove. He mentioned that Michigan and Indiana (?) are thinking of splitting their votes. That would help a little. Seems fair since the eastern side of the state is dem and the western side is rep. A few is better than 0.
| Sample | Cain | Romney | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Bachman | Huntsman | Santorum | Spread | |
| U.S. COMPOSITE | 2606 RV | 30.4 | 24.8 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | unknown | Cain +5.6 |
| OH | 500 RV | 34 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +15 |
| HI | 293 RV | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Cain +12 |
| SC | 476 RV | 32 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +16 |
| FL | 505 RV | 30.2 | 32.6 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2 | NotAsked | Romney +2.4 |
| IA | 422 RV | 26 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1 | NotAsked | Cain +8 |
| NH | 409 RV | 24 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5 | NotAsked | Romney +15 |
Thank you for voting!
Mitt Romney 38.96% (4,733 votes)
Herman Cain 61.04% (7,414 votes
Nice compilation, but a) IA is a caucus state, so the winner of that will be the best organizer, not necessarily the most popular, so candidates with a passionate following such as Paul or Bachmann could win this even though they are well behind the pack in popular rankings; b) timing matters: if Romney retains his lead in NH and wins that first primary, that will give him momentum that spills over into downstream contests, especially as more minor candidates are forced to drop out due to lack of funds etc.
“They’ve been saying that for at least 2 weeks now. Maybe longer and his numbers keep rising.”
Duly noted, and I think he acquitted himself well last night. But I just feel that at some point, “the facts” have to catch up to him. He keeps saying his plan is not a VAT, yet his own analysis/advisors say it is! It may take some time for this to get sorted out, but once it does, I think a large swath of his supporters is going to think “gosh, maybe this guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about after all.”
Can he pull that off without a ton of money and a big organization?He could garner a ton of money and a strong organization if he would commit to running for President and not Vice President. He is barnstorming Tennessee when the serious candidates are spending time in Iowa, NH, and SC. He pulled in about $3M last quarter. He needs to pull in 20 times that, and he can if he commits to it, this quarter.
Good work. For a limited multi-state composite, I’d suggest adding a column indicating the number of electoral votes, and weighting based on that.
Yes We Cain!
IMHO these faux debates are becoming more and more irrelevant. They are nothing more than sound bite/gotcha events. Many voters understand the importance of this election and are looking for the candidate that has traditional American values and can articuate those values. In addition, we’re looking for the candidate who understands he/she is in a street fight for the soul of our country and is willing to fight accordingly. I think we’re also looking for new people in the arena who are not connected to the political class who participated in the demise of American exceptionalism.
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