Posted on 08/30/2011 2:31:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.
Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote. See Wikipedia’s precis of what the Keys predicted for Bush and Gore in 2000. For fair-use reasons, I can’t excerpt Lichtman’s analysis of how the 13 Keys will play out for Obama next year, so follow the link up top and read through. He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:
1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent
The GOP wins three categories:
1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent
One other criterion, the state of the economy during the campaign, is undecided because no one knows yet how the short-term trends will look. In other words, if I’m reading this correctly, the GOP will be within one Key of winning the presidency if (a) economic indicators look bad next year, which is only too grimly plausible, and (b) they nominate someone charismatic, like, say, Rick Perry. (What the threshold is for measuring “charisma,” I have no idea.) In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.” If you flip that Key to the GOP, then you’ve got six for the Republicans — enough to take the White House by Lichtman’s own metrics.
All of which assumes, of course, that this will be an ordinary election like the past seven were. Maybe it will; maybe there’s no such thing as an extraordinary election. But the state of the economy is surely extraordinary, poised as it is for a double-dip, and unemployment is extraordinary compared to any other era over the past 75 years. That is to say, we’re assuming that these “Keys” are equally weighted in election after election, no matter the circumstances, when basic awareness of the current political climate suggests the two economic Keys will be weighted way more heavily than any of the others. Can’t wait to see how it plays out. If, heaven forbid, we do end up in another recession and The One wins anyway, then maybe Lichtman really is a genius.
“HE COULDN’T EVEN PREDICT HIS OWN DEFEAT.”
A most excellent post!!!
These “keys” are subjective so this guy can claim he is right all the time just by modifying his keys.
The intended demoralizing message is: ABANDON ALL HOPE, THE GOP CAN’T WIN. PUBS, DON’T BOTHER VOTING.
But here's the key question to ask yourself: Can you name anyone -- a national figure, or a friend or acquaintance of yours -- who voted against Obama in 2008, but who will vote for him in 2012?
Inevitably, you're going to lose some supporters the second time around. That's not necessarily a problem for the incumbent if he picks up some supporters to offset those he loses. Where, exactly, are Obama's new voters going to come from?
We can come up with 13 “keys” why this TOOL is not to be believed!
No, he reads the NYT and watches the alphabet news.
What the critics are missing though is, first, that you have to compare things with how they were when past presidents failed to win election. Truman, Johnson, and Carter all had to deal with foreign policy messes that were worse than what we're seeing now. Johnson also had civil disturbances (i.e. riots) at home that outdid anything that's going on today. Ford had to bear the burden of the Nixon scandals that also outdid anything going on today, and Truman had a similar burden at a time when people were less jaded and cynical.
The other factor is that how we see things here is different from the picture the average voter gets from the media. Even if there are major failures or scandals, you can count on the press to cover for Obama for as long as they can.
So right now Obama comes out looking better than Carter did when he ran for reelection, if only because the Navy Seals took out bin Laden. And strange as it may seem, people were probably more fed up with Truman and Johnson when they were considering running for another term than they are with Obama right now.
The anomaly is the first President Bush. By some accounts he should have won reelection. That he didn't had to do with the economy, Perot, and the media.
Three factors like that could sink Obama. But he's got the media on his side and there's no third party bid in sight -- at least not one that could hurt Obama more than the Republicans. A bad economy alone may cost Obama the election, but that's by no means certain.
A lot can change in 14 months, but Lichtman's view is not absolutely absurd or wrong on its face.
I make no statement one way or the other about the wisdom of such a plan, but any such move would likely require the Gulf states to join Texas. Otherwise, the Gulf is indefensible.
Kinda reminds me of Pelosi, telling everyone she'll not lose the house majority...no way that could ever happen.
Oh, an unknown comic, I see.
I own a gunstore. There is a great amount of unrest. However, we civilized people do not manifest unrest in uncivilized ways. People are preparing for open conflict. Lots of people. Professionals, teachers, pastors, construction workers, mechanics, jewelers, secretaries, etc. The sleeping dragon is awakening, and it is pissed. Seething, in fact. I believe that the National Socialists will be quite surprised at the response that is being quietly prepared for them.
Has this country ever had a marxist suspect as a president to deal w/??? That’s one extraordinary variable lacking from this dude’s “keys”!
What about a BC-less president??? When people are still to this day wondering if this exposed marxist is really an American citizen after all or not, doesn’t that add an extraordinary variable to the mix?
Everything about this community agitator is extraordinary yet these guys are trying to measure him against past American incumbent presidents like any average Joe. Garbage in, garbage out!
Na-uh, not gonna happen. obama is toast no matter how they try to slice it!
“and the scandal-free nature of his administration.”
All thanks to sycophantic pressholes.
Excellent point.I don’t know anyone who has switched from disliking Obama to liking him. I know of several who are the opposite. The MSM hyping stories of “disappointed democrats” are BS. The people they interview are disappointed that Obama isn’t leftist enough. And that has to be a very small % of the population. Notice that Obama isn’t going after THAT demographic, he’s going to middle America. He knows that the average Joe is NOT impressed with him.
Personally I don't think it will work regardless. There are so many people who will try to oust him in 2012 that it will overcome the lukewarm support he enjoys from his base.
More left wing bullshit. The criminal MSM will read oija boards and tell us that obuma is omniscient. That left-wing Romney-lover allahpundit can shove it.
I feel the same way. The problem is what country to settle in. Got any suggestions?
This new learning amazes me, Professor Lichtman. Explain again how sheeps’ bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.
” No scandals???? Is this guy been living under a rock??????”
Lots of scandals. Just that most Americans don’t know about them since they are not reported by the MSM.
Aw, pshaw. Thank you (humble hat tip).
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