Posted on 08/30/2011 2:31:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House…
Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.
Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote. See Wikipedia’s precis of what the Keys predicted for Bush and Gore in 2000. For fair-use reasons, I can’t excerpt Lichtman’s analysis of how the 13 Keys will play out for Obama next year, so follow the link up top and read through. He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:
1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent
The GOP wins three categories:
1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent
One other criterion, the state of the economy during the campaign, is undecided because no one knows yet how the short-term trends will look. In other words, if I’m reading this correctly, the GOP will be within one Key of winning the presidency if (a) economic indicators look bad next year, which is only too grimly plausible, and (b) they nominate someone charismatic, like, say, Rick Perry. (What the threshold is for measuring “charisma,” I have no idea.) In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.” If you flip that Key to the GOP, then you’ve got six for the Republicans — enough to take the White House by Lichtman’s own metrics.
All of which assumes, of course, that this will be an ordinary election like the past seven were. Maybe it will; maybe there’s no such thing as an extraordinary election. But the state of the economy is surely extraordinary, poised as it is for a double-dip, and unemployment is extraordinary compared to any other era over the past 75 years. That is to say, we’re assuming that these “Keys” are equally weighted in election after election, no matter the circumstances, when basic awareness of the current political climate suggests the two economic Keys will be weighted way more heavily than any of the others. Can’t wait to see how it plays out. If, heaven forbid, we do end up in another recession and The One wins anyway, then maybe Lichtman really is a genius.
Just an ugly bag of water.
Every streak comes to and end, especially the remarkable ones.
I think he is going to be proved wrong. But, if he turns out to be right then I for one am going to start planning to leave this country for another country where the idiots are not running the asylum like they are here. There will be no HOPE for America if Obummer is somehow re-elected.
NO scandals???? Is this guy been living under a rock??????
I don’t think it’s quite that rosy for obama...not saying I think he will lose...just saying I don’t think it’s a sure thing for him.
Dude, it’s Allan Lichtman, I wouldn’t expect anything else out of him but a prediction of victory for Obama, they’re on the same team.
This dude has so many attributes positively attributed to Obama (no unrest?????) that he’s clearly delusional.
No scandals? No social unrest? No foreign policy failure?
Am I missing something here? Has the author been asleep?
RE: I for one am going to start planning to leave this country for another country
Hey, I hope this is not one of those celebrity like threats.
Alec Baldwin and Barbra Streisand are still here as far as I can tell (even with two Bush terms).
The problem is where do you go?
I agree with you, if O wins then this country is doomed. I need somewhere to go. I wish all the right thinking people in this country would move to 1 or 2 states and just secede from the union. I could get behind a plan like that.
If the day after O got re-elected a message was sent out that right thinking americans should move to texas to prepare for secession I would do it in a second.
LMAO. I note that he developed his keys AFTER Reagan crushed Carter like a roach in 1980 even when the mainstream pundits said that one was “too close to call”. I wonder what he would have forecast?
Gotta love the subliminal message too - stay at home Tea Party people and everyone else who can’t wait to vote against Obama. Obama is going to win. Just stay home.
Yup. Several “attributes” listed made me wonder if the guy is an Obamabot.
He needs to call Gene Simmons. Gene Simmons says Perry is going to win and he’s never been wrong.
Also, he has a very long tongue.
I don’t know ... I just want to rock and roll all night... and Perry every day.
RE: Dude, it’s Allan Lichtman, I wouldn’t expect anything else out of him but a prediction of victory for Obama, they’re on the same team
_______________________________________________________________________________
WHO IS ALAN LICHTMAN?
Allan Jay Lichtman (born April 4, 1947) is an American political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. He ran in the 2006 Maryland senate race for the seat vacated by Paul Sarbanes.
Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the History Department, and was named Scholar/Professor of the Year in 1993.
Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center.
He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore and Senator Edward Kennedy. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida during the 2000 election, submitting an extensive report of his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded “there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates.
The so-called "Arab Spring" resulting in a new terrorist regime in Egypt and failure to support true freedom in Syria? The failure to "reset" with Russia? The rift with Israel? Still in Iraq and Afghanistan? New war in Libya with no idea how it's going to turn out? Loss of credibility abroad? Please.
We can’t take anything for granted. We need to approach 2012 as though this guy might be right.
I guess selling cartels thousands of weapons to kill US and Mexican citizens is not nearly as bad as scrounging for files in the DNC headquarters...or even a fat intern’s BJ.
RE: WTF is this guy smoking? Just because the MSM doesn’t report it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
____________________________________________________________________________________
A little background on the one doing the predicting...
On September 28, 2005, Alan Lichtman formally announced his candidacy for the United States Senate from Maryland. He ran as a progressive, opposing the War in Iraq and calling for an immediate and safe withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Lichtman used innovative approaches to reach voters and supporters during the campaign including MySpace and a web ad where he jumped in a lake. When he and other candidates were not invited by the League of Women Voters to a debate, Lichtman went to the Maryland Public Television studio and protested; he, his wife, and campaign volunteer Gail Dobson were arrested. On October 19, 2006, the three were found Not Guilty on all charges.
Lichtman lost in the primary to Ben Cardin. According to the final tally, he received 6,919, or 1.2% of the vote, landing him in 6th place in a field of 18.
HE COULDN’T EVEN PREDICT HIS OWN DEFEAT.
I have a single question for this ivory tower dweeb, how much do you want to bet and at what odds? It sounds like you are confident about your conclusion, so I will bet you $10k at 4-1 odds, how about it?
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