I agree. They are acting like rabid animals.
Posted on 08/14/2011 12:00:53 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I listen ad nauseam to posters, some who are pro-Palin and some who are anti-Palin, discourse about Sarah Palin's entry (or non-entry) into the 2012 Presidential sweepstakes, generally advising her to "Hurry up!". Those afflicted with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome) gleefully proclaim that she is not running. Of course, not only is there no evidence for this proposition, her actions in the last six months, as well as many of her statements, would lead any rational observer to believe that she will run. But leaving aside the PDSers (who are in any case engaging in wishful thinking because they do not want her to run), let me turn to the not insignificant number of Palinistas who are anxious that she should unambiguously announce her candidacy YESTERDAY or, at the very least, today. They are being taunted by the Establishment and the Mainstream Media over the delay in Palin's announcement. The Establishment is motivated by a desire that Palin, if she means to get in, enter the race sooner rather than later for strategic reasons, as I will explain. The media, always hungry for ratings, is motivated by a desire to have Palin in the race because her presence will juice up their withering balance sheets. The Palinistas merely want to be able to advocate for her as an official candidate and to hurl a collective "I told ya so" at her detractors. None of these constitutes a valid reason for her to adjust her announcement schedule if she wants to actually increase her chances of winning the nomination. There are many reasons to delay. The other candidates will begin to fade and to drop out, as they have. There is not clear frontrunner, which there isn't. The field is weak, which it is. And the candidates have not been vetted, which will cause their support to erode over time. On the other hand, Palin has 100% name recognition and is very popular with the GOP base. She does not need to introduce herself to them, although she will have to re-introduce herself to the national electorate, a process that she already begun with her bus tour and movie.
The most compelling reason to delay is very simple. Money. Palin will have to run an insurgent campaign. I believe she will have adequate funding, but she will not be able to compete with Establishment candidates like Romney and Perry in fundraising. A longer campaign, while it might warm the cockles of the Palinista heart, plays to the advantage of the well heeled Establishment candidates. A shorter campaign neutralizes that advantage. Both Romney and Perry will have more money than Palin. That is certain. But it is far from decisive. In 1979, Eastern Establishment scion George Bush outraised Ronald Reagan by a wide margin for his 1980 run, and former Texas Governor John Connally raised more than both, an up to that time unheard-of $11 million (for which he garnered a single delegate, before dropping out after the South Carolina primary). As Craig Shirley reported in his book, Rendezvous with Destiny, Reagan was cash-strapped when he announced (in November 1979)and did not have enough money to purchase a half hour of broadcast time the night of his announcement. And Reagan was nearly completely broke after the New Hampshire primary, while Bush continued to run a well funded campaign. Bush and Conally used their largesse to run longer, more expensive campaigns, defeating Reagan in virtually every straw poll in the summer and fall of 1979. (In Iowa, among the candidates on the straw poll ballot, it was Bush: 36%; Connally: 15% ; Bob Dole: 14%; Ronald Reagan 11%) The Gipper did worse in others, often finishing in single digits, as he did in an Oregon straw poll won by Bush with 35%. (h/t: Rendezvous with Destiny, Chapter 4)
What nearly cost Reagan the nomination in 1980 was a) the overspending of his campaign BEFORE and after his announcement and b) his failure to compete vigorously in Iowa(he visited the state only once) He lost narrowly to Bush 33-31 on caucus night. Bachmann's straw poll win garnered her some free publicity, but she bought 6000 tickets (@ $35 a pop) and received only 4800 votes.
The delay in Palin's announcement is principally rooted in a desire to neutralize the Establishment's money advantage. She already has a grass roots organization on the ground in Iowa (where she has been observed twice now in the company of Iowa fundraiser Becky Beach). She is not going to play in straw polls which do nothing but swell the coffers of the Establishment state parties, which by and large oppose her, and which garner no delegates. And her two recent visits to Iowa, to Pella and Ames, which were accompanied by raucous receptions, as well as her upcoming speech to the Tea Party activists at Wauka on September 3, indicate that she is not about to repeat the Gipper's mistake of overlooking Iowa.
Her entry in the next few weeks will cut Bachmann's support in the state in half, but she will also draw votes from conservative Catholics (who find Bachmann off-putting) and from the two governors still in the race, Romney and Perry. She is able to draw not just from the Evangelical wing (where she will shrink Bachmann dramatically) but from the CATO economic libertarian wing which finds both Perry's crony capitalism and Romney's statism anathema and which does not like Bachmann's high profile evangelical fervor.
Far from threatening her campaign, Sarah Palin's delay in announcing will prove to have been a brilliant move, as as well as a fiscally prudent one (portending no doubt the kind of Administration she will run), and it will set the standard for insurgent candidates in future races.
I'm looking forward to the day when you tell us a Perry for President bumper sticker is on your car!
BRAVO!
What a great explanation of Sarah’s “strategery”!
This woman hasn’t been hiding, or just making money as a consultant- she has a brilliantly thought out plan, and she is the process of executing it, much to the dismay and befuddlement of many.
Patton would be proud.
Palin, you magnificent bastard!
Bachmann will be out of money in a couple months.
Thanks for another cogent analysis regarding Sarah Palin and her timing strategy for entering the GOP nomination race. All of the points you raise seem valid, specifically that Palin will be outspent by establishment candidates and that a longer campaign benefits them, not Palin. Like many Palin supporters, I'm anxious for Sarah to declare her candidacy but not to the point where doing so too soon would weaken her position for any reason. Obviously, I want Sarah Palin to defeat Barack Obama. Frankly, I think whomever the Republican candidate is will beat Obama. His support in every demographic is slipping fast, for good reason. Hence, I very much want Sarah Palin, a true conservative, not just a 'campaign conservative' to be the Republican nominee in 2012. If that means she waits a little longer to declare her candidacy, so be it.
I would note that late last week, in Iowa, Palin stated that September would be the 'drop dead' month for her to announce. She also said something that one can take two ways, which many in the media, did. She said that she didn't want to "string people along." That could mean, as some stated, with much certainty, that Sarah Palin was not going to run, using the phrase "string people along" as absolute 'proof' that Palin didn't want to waste people's time, meaning (still with me?) she didn't really plan to run. However, I saw it as a simple statement of fact because she knows there are many, many people (like me) that very much want her to run and she doesn't want to keep us in perpetual suspense. Of course, only Sarah Palin knows what she'll do but I have faith that she'll choose to run. Not for personal aggrandizement but to serve her beloved country in a time of need.
I agree. They are acting like rabid animals.
Good summary for us to keep in mind (and use in our never-ending debates with the PDS crowd ;-)
Perry has a record that is pretty shaky in spots and Bachmann has a lot of support amongst “us” but has never even won a statewide election. You’ve got to go back to Abe Lincoln to find a person who’s been elected POTUS with only House experience. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but odds are against it, especially when the campaign heats up and the focus is put on executive experience, and the facts behind the so-called miraculous job-creation in Texas come out.
And as you say, being the guy who replaced George W. Bush doesn’t quite have the cachet it might otherwise have.
Look, powerful forces have captured the national government. Enemies control the capital.
If they can control the process, they can keep their gains. They dictate process. They dictate procedure. They announce who is qualified, and what you must do to qualify.
Someday, someone, will use the constitutional process to fight back. ALL YOU NEED IS TO BE ON THE BALLOT IN 50 STATES ON ELECTION DAY.
The rest of it is a game, the rules of which are contrived to keep patriots and constitutionalists OUT.
I don't know what she is going to do. Maybe she'll endorse Perry tomorrow and make me a fool.
But what I think is that she wants to forge a coalition that is sick of the political status quo AND wants to take our country back from the malignant forces that control her now.
I'm willing to wait until Labor Day.
Labor Day, 2012, that is.
LOL. Explains a great deal.
“This woman hasn’t been hiding, or just making money as a consultant- she has a brilliantly thought out plan, and she is the process of executing it, much to the dismay and befuddlement of many.”
She has obviously studied Reagan’s 1976 and 1980 campaigns, as has Steve Bannon, who refers to them constantly and who was thinking of them when he made “The Undefeated”. She knows how to tun an insurgent campaign (having run one in AK with great success) She will avoid the mistakes the Gipper made.
I don’t remember people making a fuss when Ronald Reagan waited til the end of November to announce he was running..why should it be any different for Sarah Palin, when she announces her decision it will be on HER terms, people gotta stop obsessing over it..like anyone knows what her true intentions are, no one knows, she will do what is best for her and her family..her family is #1, if they sit down, have a meeting, and decide that the best thing to do is run she will do it
I don’t think it’s as much as carrying the right message but more like implementing the right agenda. Most candidates speak “conservatism” quite well during campaigns but lack the will, desire or the talent to enact the conservative agenda once elected. Sarah Palin is looking for a results leader, not a conservative orator. IMO, she’ll have to run because the other candidates do not fit the bill for one reason or another.
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“Bachmann will be out of money in a couple months.”
She spent $200K just buying the 6000 votes at Ames (of which she got 4800), not to mention the barbecue, transport and other things. She probably dropped a million on the meaningless straw poll. She will be broke before Halloween.
BC - Maybe Mitt will chip in some cash to keep her viable eh?
Thank you! Easily the best (and most encouraging) explanation for her timing.
Thanks for another great piece of analysis, many valid points in there!
You very well may be right. But I believe she not only knows whether she is going to run but has known for some time (per Bristol’s comment a month or so ago). Yet she continues to claim that she hasn’t decided yet.
I am tired of the tease. This is not what I expect from someone who bills herself as a different kind of politician.
Jim,
Very good analysis. Nothing much is going to change between now and the end of September-early October. If she wasn’t running, she would tell us now and have done with it. She knows her supporters are restless and I think she wants to calm them but she is most focused on the prize...the victory.
It will be well worth the wait.
BC
I’ve been saying for some time that announcing before Labor Day would be dumb. You provide good additional reasons for saying that.
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