Thanks for another cogent analysis regarding Sarah Palin and her timing strategy for entering the GOP nomination race. All of the points you raise seem valid, specifically that Palin will be outspent by establishment candidates and that a longer campaign benefits them, not Palin. Like many Palin supporters, I'm anxious for Sarah to declare her candidacy but not to the point where doing so too soon would weaken her position for any reason. Obviously, I want Sarah Palin to defeat Barack Obama. Frankly, I think whomever the Republican candidate is will beat Obama. His support in every demographic is slipping fast, for good reason. Hence, I very much want Sarah Palin, a true conservative, not just a 'campaign conservative' to be the Republican nominee in 2012. If that means she waits a little longer to declare her candidacy, so be it.
I would note that late last week, in Iowa, Palin stated that September would be the 'drop dead' month for her to announce. She also said something that one can take two ways, which many in the media, did. She said that she didn't want to "string people along." That could mean, as some stated, with much certainty, that Sarah Palin was not going to run, using the phrase "string people along" as absolute 'proof' that Palin didn't want to waste people's time, meaning (still with me?) she didn't really plan to run. However, I saw it as a simple statement of fact because she knows there are many, many people (like me) that very much want her to run and she doesn't want to keep us in perpetual suspense. Of course, only Sarah Palin knows what she'll do but I have faith that she'll choose to run. Not for personal aggrandizement but to serve her beloved country in a time of need.
Jim,
Very good analysis. Nothing much is going to change between now and the end of September-early October. If she wasn’t running, she would tell us now and have done with it. She knows her supporters are restless and I think she wants to calm them but she is most focused on the prize...the victory.
It will be well worth the wait.
BC
The incumbency is a powerful asset. Heck, even Jimmuh Carter had to screw up spectacularly to lose.