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Posted on 08/10/2011 11:07:32 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Seth Mandel
August 10, 2011
In April, Human Events published a column offering ten reasons Sarah Palin will run for president. Last month, Fox News host Greta Van Susteren blogged about the seven reasons Palin will run for president. Then last week, Henry D’Andrea, writing in the Washington Times, offered three reasons he believes Palin will run for president.
Though I’ve been skeptical all along that Palin would run, I would imagine the entrance of Rick Perry into the race will give Palin one very good reason not to. Perry’s candidacy has, as many others have pointed out, put several of the Republican campaigns on life support. As I wrote last week, the latest Gallup poll numbers show once Perry is included, Republican primary voters show substantially less interest in candidates outside the field. There may still be calls for Paul Ryan or Chris Christie to get in the race, but Perry has quieted the clamoring for “someone else.” But the numbers also show why he easily replaces Palin.
Perry has two impressive numbers in the Gallup polling: his overall placement (second, right behind Mitt Romney) and his “positive intensity score.” Gallup defines this as “the difference between strongly favorable and strongly unfavorable opinions among those who are familiar with him or her. This score provides an indication of the intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers at any given point in the campaign.”
In the most recent Gallup polling, Perry’s positive intensity score is at 23, five points higher than Palin’s 18. The full poll, however, shows when Perry and Palin are in the race together, Perry polls at 15 percent to Palin’s 12. (The poll includes Rudy Giuliani as well.) Additionally, Perry has the kind of grassroots support, popularity with conservative new media and solid reputation among conservative evangelical voters from which Palin would build a campaign.
For Palin to run, she would need to focus her firepower on a moderate establishment candidate, like Romney. But Perry may well begin his official campaign as either the frontrunner or close to it. A Palin candidacy would seem unnecessary to primary voters once Perry is in the race. I’m sure speculation will continue, but Perry seems to have closed the door on a Palin candidacy this year.
Oh good, now we have the argument that if Obama can break the Constitution rule so can we. Yeesh! Johnny stole a cookie so I can to. Brilliant. Just Brilliant.
The race within six weeks will be Perry vs. Bachmann.
Without evangelical support Palin has no chance in Iowa and she's DOA in New Hampshire. Without a strong showing in either state, she'd be 2012's Rudy Giuliani.
Totally with you on this one. Just because the criminals in Congress do not have the sand to enforce the Constitution, that doesn’t make Obama’s presidency constitutional. Ignoring the unconstituional acts of our govenment is what has gotten us to this place in history. Advocating that conservatives push another unconstitutional candidate is absurd and will further accelerate the death of our country.
No, Perry sucks the life out of Romney's campaign by taking the economic conservative vote from him.
Could this be anymore transparent?
1. Energy crisis.
The only quick fix available to this country is to develop our energy resources immediately and even begin to export them. This could solve our national debt problem. Putting people to work on energy could solve our employment problem. We could also begin to dismantle the beast in Washington. Sarah is ideally suited for all of these tasks. Of course she would need the help of the House and Senate.
I see Palin much the same way, and it is why I like the idea of a Palin-Perry ticket. Perry has been fighting the EPA in Texas for some time now. It's no secret that he would like to dismantle that insane bunch of eco-freaks.
I would love a President Palin on her first day in office to turn to her Vice President Perry and say; "Rick, starting right now, you're in charge of the EPA. We're drilling, and they're on board or they're gone. Get to work!" :)
I just PRAY that Sarah runs!
I’d like to see them both get in and quickly dispatch with Romney. Keep Bachmann in the race, and let the rest of the outliers fade away (sorry, Cain, I like you but you don’t have a snowball’s chance in hades). Let them all compete in the maximum number of debates, let us see how well they fight, how well they articulate positions with which we agree, and let us decide which of them is best equipped to defeat Omoslem and lead our country. Give us choices and let the free market decide.
Bachmann will run out of money before Iowa.
1) Perry and Bachmann team up, Perry choosing Bachmann as the running mate to steal some of the religious right / values voters (a mixed bag, as he would be 'reassuring' the Tea Party at the expense of many moderates and ALL Democrats)
2) Palin stumbles -- either a gaffe while under intense pressure: she has survived the barrage but has not been under a microscope in *quite* the same was as during the campaign. (As a private citizen, it was just Joe McGinniss outside her yard; as a candidate, it'll be half the "press corpse") OR a completely lousy choice for VP (I think with her background, she will NOT pick any of the likely choices for VP, just as she herself was a surprise). However, I must confess I literally cannot come up with a plausible dark-horse for her VP who will shore up her weakness on defense / foreign policy, while still being conservative or an unknown. (An unknown would give credibility to the cries of "gravitas" and "Caribou Barbie" in a way that an old hand would not.) The two most likely choices I can see would be Congressman West (still too green for the White House) or General Petraeus (military credibility up the yin-yang but don't know his campaigning skills or conservatism).
Cheers!
2) Someone with an IQ above the low 30's has figured out that a Mormon will not play well in the Bible Belt, who are annoyed enough about Obama's Ramadan greetings that they are itching for a *TRUE* evangelical as a candidate.
Cheers!
Now tell me what happens when she has an organization and supporters who are part of the national conversation "above the radar."
Cheers!
Interesting dynamic isn't it? If she's doing so well in the polls, why can't she raise money?
Well, FINALLY.
I have been reading the posts all morning and see nothing but the usual "xxxxxxxx candidate will split the vote" crap. It is as if only a front running conservative candidate could possibly split a voting block. ANY candidate can split a voting block or hasn't anyone here noticed little bammy is totally unopposed? You hardy here of a rumor of any opposition. So much for “conservative split the vote.”
Not to mention the flood of "Rick Perry has warts but he is better than xxxxxxxxx" posts. Or the "we must beat little bammy therefore we must not have a true conservative candidate" BS.
Then there is the usual pointing at a MSM poll that is so cagey about their polling process it renders the results meaningless to the general public. It is reliably accompanied by the claim that it "proves" something or another.
None of that has motivated me to even touch the keyboard. It is all the same dog-chasing-tail routine from `08.
No thanks, BT-DT.
I understand Lieutenant Colonel West has stated "he is not ready." I can certainly sympathize with that. But timing is never perfect. I believe he also stated he does not know of anyone "strong enough" to run as her VP. Since he has the apparently rare ability to actually see this he seems to be the sole candidate for the job.
And then there is the “interrogation incident.”
At his preliminary hearing, West acknowledged he allowed two soldiers to beat an Iraqi policeman who refused to reveal details of an ambush plot and fired his pistol near the man's head, threatening to kill him.
As WorldNetDaily reported, under threat of an attack, West took charge of the interrogation of an Iraqi policeman, Yahya Jhodri Hamoody, determined to flush out details as he warned subordinates "it could get ugly." Threatening to kill the Iraqi if he didn't talk, West fired a pistol near the policeman's head.
The scared policeman then immediately disclosed the information, leading to the arrest of two Iraqis last August and cessation of attacks on West's 4th Infantry Division battalion.
At the hearing last month, West was asked by his defense attorney if he would do it again.
"If it's about the lives of my men and their safety, I'd go through hell with a gasoline can," he said.
"But that's what's going on out there in the streets here, and that's how I feel about my boys," he told the hearing, held in one of Saddam Hussein's lavish palaces. "There is not a person in this room I would not sacrifice my life for."
Wow. The horror. Someone in politics that actually busted a live cap on a protected class p.o.s.
Yea, better not encourage THAT guy to begin preparations for stepping up in his nation's dire time of need, huh?
Let's go for some “safe” PC correct windsock, right?
Uhhh, NO.
The time is here to put some fighters on the job. Some that are known to tell the donks they are commie pukes and below contempt but not above prosecution for crimes against the American People.
numberonepal nails it.
PALIN / WEST
But only if you are screaming for a fight.
Ok, everybody back to your seesaws, the speech is over.
.
Exactly. As Limbaugh says; "the marketplace of ideas".
If the door is closed, it just means she wouldn't have to dismount her bulldozer to open it!
“Has she done the groundwork and built the party support that it takes to run?” ...
Organizing for Palin (O4P)”
In addition, Palin helped a large number of tea party republicans get elected in 2010.
Her batting average from last NOvember would make any MLB manager green with envy.
tD
I think her support is soft. Without being specific one poll I saw a couple of days ago of current announced candidates indicated that most respondents would be agreeable to changing their preference.
The danger of entering too soon, is peaking early.
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