Posted on 08/10/2011 11:07:32 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Seth Mandel
August 10, 2011
In April, Human Events published a column offering ten reasons Sarah Palin will run for president. Last month, Fox News host Greta Van Susteren blogged about the seven reasons Palin will run for president. Then last week, Henry D’Andrea, writing in the Washington Times, offered three reasons he believes Palin will run for president.
Though I’ve been skeptical all along that Palin would run, I would imagine the entrance of Rick Perry into the race will give Palin one very good reason not to. Perry’s candidacy has, as many others have pointed out, put several of the Republican campaigns on life support. As I wrote last week, the latest Gallup poll numbers show once Perry is included, Republican primary voters show substantially less interest in candidates outside the field. There may still be calls for Paul Ryan or Chris Christie to get in the race, but Perry has quieted the clamoring for “someone else.” But the numbers also show why he easily replaces Palin.
Perry has two impressive numbers in the Gallup polling: his overall placement (second, right behind Mitt Romney) and his “positive intensity score.” Gallup defines this as “the difference between strongly favorable and strongly unfavorable opinions among those who are familiar with him or her. This score provides an indication of the intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers at any given point in the campaign.”
In the most recent Gallup polling, Perry’s positive intensity score is at 23, five points higher than Palin’s 18. The full poll, however, shows when Perry and Palin are in the race together, Perry polls at 15 percent to Palin’s 12. (The poll includes Rudy Giuliani as well.) Additionally, Perry has the kind of grassroots support, popularity with conservative new media and solid reputation among conservative evangelical voters from which Palin would build a campaign.
For Palin to run, she would need to focus her firepower on a moderate establishment candidate, like Romney. But Perry may well begin his official campaign as either the frontrunner or close to it. A Palin candidacy would seem unnecessary to primary voters once Perry is in the race. I’m sure speculation will continue, but Perry seems to have closed the door on a Palin candidacy this year.
The problem is that if they run against each other in the primaries, then neither of them will win the nomination. It will go to the liberal because of all the cross over votes from independents and democrats.
In those states with open primaries, the democrats will go with Romney and in winner take all primaries, like California (which has the most delegates) if there are two strong conservatives sucking votes from each other, then neither of them will get the most votes.
I'm sure Romney is hoping that Perry, Palin and Bachmann all cancel each other out. Then we will have McCain II.
I could support Palin-Perry as long as RINO Rick is in the back of the bus.
bump.
Nope, Govin Palin wins the nomination and is Sworn in as the first woman President of the USA in Jan 2013.
Wild eyes,Romney and Perry will not know what hit them
LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There are several fine candidates in the race. I’m not yet convinced that, all things considered, they’re better than she is. So no.
Mittens is getting no traction. Do you suppose that’s the reason the beltway insiders and money men are starting to place their bets on Perry? Or do you think the Mitt has said or done something to offend them?
But Col. West is.
Of the current and potential Republican nominees, Cain, Bachmann and Palin appear to be the only reformers.
Perry and Romney are "McCain II, The Sequel" and should be avoided with same intensity as avoiding obama.
Palin doesn’t have to worry about being anyone’s VP choice anymore. Ain’t gonna happen. If Perry gets in, Romney becomes a non-starter. Then it becomes Palin and Bachmann as the insurgents vs Perry and Romney as the establishment.
What authority or real evidence do you have that Palin will smoke both Romney and Perry combined? Most polls have both candidates leading Palin in a GOP primary race. Don’t let your wishes close your mind to reality.
I have never mentioned anything about Rubio, for or against.
And this article is just the latest in a long line of transparent "Palin isn't running, so start sending my guy money!" screeds.
The big money ain't buying it.
She has been fiddling with a new look. No more "prom hair" as her daughter calls it. Every move she has made has been to reconstruct an image. The TLC show was a page right out of Stephen Covey and John Maxwell's leadership philosophy. Let them see your human side. Let them see you laugh at yourself. Let them see you are not afraid of hard work. All the snotty nosed "Not presidential" stuff was crap. These are the things confident leaders do.
Then again, she may not get in the race, but there are signs that she is leaning toward a run.
That one made me giggle out loud....although I was expecting a smack across the face, as I would have received!
For months, I’ve seen signs she plans to run, but her recent FB posts are the strongest evidence to date. Finally, she is doing exactly what I hoped she would do. She is putting her policy positions out for people to see. She is giving voters something to vote for. She is leading by articulating her vision of a better future for America.
Agree. Much better stated.
Yeah, have her in the kitchen baking cookies while the real tough guys duke it out for the WH. In your dreams ....
Yes, she is speaking articulately for many of us, and capturing what we’ve been thinking. Rush was talking yesterday about conversations that he’s had with Pres. candidates, and tat they insisted that the Punk should not be attacked personally. (Idiots!) Obviously, Gov. Palin is not hiding among that obsequious crowd of potential loses! LOL PALIN/RUBIO’12!! Bob
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