Posted on 06/15/2011 9:27:51 PM PDT by neverdem
“All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.”
I’ve managed to get a copy of the official press release provided by the Southwest Research Institute Planetary Science Directorate to MSM journalists, for today’s stunning AAS announcement and it is reprinted in full here:
WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN?
MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED
Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.
A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces:
http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results...
(Excerpt) Read more at wattsupwiththat.com ...
It is simple enough today to get a Ham ticket. The question pool is given. If you have a technical background it is easy to pick it up.
There are 3 classes of written exams. Tech, General and Extra.
You can download the question pool here:
http://www.arrl.org/question-pools
—
Practice exams can be done here:
—
Morse is another thing. For some it is easy for others it is not. It is mostly repetition and takes several months normally to get to 13 WPM (20 WPM for Extra).
I have taught both Amateur and Commercial radio license prep courses.
The exams themselves are given by volunteer examiners. (when I got my first ticket I had to set before a FCC examiner, had to drive to Dallas for it.) Now most cities have examiners and local clubs often give classes.
Most Hams today are appliance operators. Not very technical.
Actually they are not. It is not about Hot or Cold, but about extreme weather variability. Some locations extremely cold, other locations hot. Some location extremely dry other locations extremely wet. There is a correlation between that and the sunspot minimums and maximums.
The research substantiating a protracted solar minimum is extensive: Researchers who have predicted a long term solar minimum or ‘solar hibernation’ and/or a new climate change to a period of long lasting cold weather based upon solar activity.
1. Dr. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: Russian Academy of Scientists. Head of space research at the Pulkova Observatory, St. Petersburg.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: “Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland – could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060….He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today….”
2. David Archibald. Summa Development Limited. (Australia). From his paper: Archibald, D.C., (2006), Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response, Energy and Environment, Vol.17, No.1.
Comment from paper: “Based on a solar maxima of approximately 50 for solar cycles 24 and 25, a global temperature decline of 1.5C is predicted to 2020 equating to the experience of the Dalton Minimum.”
3. Dr. O.G.Badalyan, and Dr.V.N. Obridko, Institute of Terrestrial Magnestism. Russia, Dr.J.Sykora. Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovak Republic.
From their paper: Balalyan, O.G., V.N. Obridko, and J. Sykora, (2000), Brightness of the coronal green line and prediction for activity cycles 23 and 24, Solar Physics, 199: pp.421-435.
Comment from paper: “ A slow increase in (intensity of coronal green line) in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number (number of sunspots) cycle 24 with the maximum W~50 at 2010-2011.” (Note: a 50 sunspot level is a Dalton class minimum)
4. Dr. B. P. Bonev, Dr. Kaloyan M. Penev, Dr. Stefano Sello.
From their paper: Bonev, B.P., et. al., (2004), Long term solar variability and the solar cycle in the 21st century, The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 605, pp.L81-L84.
Comment from their paper: “…we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in long term solar variability.”
5. John L. Casey, Director, Space and Science Research Center. Orlando, Florida
From the center’s research report: Casey, John L. (2008), The existence of ‘relational cycles’ of solar activity on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, as significant models of climate change on earth. SSRC Research Report 1-2008 – The RC Theory, www.spaceandscience.net.
Comments from the research report: “ As a result of the theory, it can be predicted that the next solar minimum may start within the next 3-14 years, and last 2-3 solar cycles or approximately 22-33 years. …It is estimated that there will be a global temperature drop on average between 1.0 and 1.5 degrees C, if not lower, at least on the scale of the Dalton Minimum. …This forecast next solar minimum will likely be accompanied by the coldest period globally for the past 200 years and as such, has the potential to result in world wide, agricultural, social, and economic disruption.”[EA]
6. Dr. Peter Harris. Engineer, retired, Queensland, Australia.
From his analysis of glacial and interglacial cycles he concludes: “…we can say there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age.”
7. Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera. Researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
His comments from his research released in August 2008: “…in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts for 60-80 years.”
8. Dr’s. Y.T.Hong, H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P.Zhou, J.Beer, H.D. Li, X.T.Leng, B.Hong, and X.G. Qin.
From their paper: Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6,000-year (isotope) O18 time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10.1 (2000) pp. 1-7.
The Chinese team of researchers observed “…a striking correspondence of climate events to nearly all of the apparent solar activity changes.”
In showing O18 isotope measurements were high during the coldest periods they concluded, “If the trend after AD 1950 continues…the next maximum of the peat O18 (and therefore cold maximum) would be expected between about AD 2000 and AD 2050.”
9. Dr. Boris Komitov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, and Dr. Vladimir Kaftan: Central Research Institute of Geodesy, Moscow.
From their paper: Komitov, B., and V. Kaftan, (2004), The sunspot activity in the last two millennia on the basis of indirect and instrumented indexes: time series models and their extrapolations for the 21st century, paper presented at the International Astronomical Union Symposium No. 223.
Comment from paper: “It follows from their extrapolations for the 21st century that a supercenturial solar minimum will be occurring during the next few decades…. It will be similar in magnitude to the Dalton minimum, but probably longer as the last one.”
10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada).
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include:
“Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
11. Dr. Ernest Njau: University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
From his paper: Njau, E., (2005), Expected halt in current global warming trend?, Renewable Energy, Vol.30, Issue 5, pp.743-752.
Comment from paper: “… the mean ‘global temperature variations reaches the next peak about 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally it is shown that… Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.”
12. Dr. Tim Patterson: Dept. of Earth Sciences, Carleton Univ., Can.
From an article in the Calgary Times: May 18, 2007. Indeed, one of the more interesting, if not alarming statements Patterson made before the Friends of Science luncheon is satellite data shows that by the year 2020 the next solar cycle is going to be solar cycle 25 – the weakest one since the Little Ice Age (that started in the 13th century and ended around 1860) a time when people living in London, England, used to walk on a frozen Thames River and food was scarcer.
Patterson: “This should be a great strategic concern in Canada because nobody is farming north of us.” In other words, Canada – the great breadbasket of the world - just might not be able to grow grains in much of the prairies.
13.Dr’s. Ken K. Schatten and W.K.Tobiska.
From their paper presented at the 34th Solar Physics Division meeting of the American Astronomical Society, June 2003:
“The surprising result of these long range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
14. Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin. Merited Scientist of Russia and Fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and researcher at the Oceanology Institute.
From recent news articles, regarding the next climate change he has said:
“Astrophysics know two solar cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of irradiating solar surface…. Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041,and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.”
15. Dr’s. Ian Wilson, Bob Carter, and I.A. Waite.
From their paper: Does a Spin-Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 25(2) 85-93 June 2008).
Dr. Wilson adds the following clarification:
“It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20-30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1-2 C.”
16. Dr’s. Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. Nanjing Normal University, China.
From their paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 95,115-121: Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years.
“… we believe global climate changes will be in a trend of falling in the following 20 years.”
Objective? Yes. But I don't see any evidence of it so I am skeptical. The AGW idiots have abandoned the "Warming" term and now talk about climate change. Their story is still a total lie.
The evidence is the drought. It will be persistent with little respite for the forseeable future. Weather patterns are changing and it may well be permanent.
They are talking about a trend in place for lower sun activity in the future. Nasa had been expecting an active solar trend over the next couple of years but this research shows that to be a false expectation given the activity on the sun. The sun is going to calm down from today’s sun activity rather than ratchet up.
You are talking about recent episodes of sun activity which does not have much to do with the trends being discussed in the article. The solar ejection you are referring to was a doozy!
I think it is good. Won’t be too great if the water melon liberals are successful in raising energy prices through cutting our supplies, rationing and taxation. It is going to be colder than Algore expected.
Drought is a local/regional issue. It is an indicator of weather variability, not long term climate change. We are experiencing drought and floods both in various places in the U.S. I still see no evidence of Global Cooling or Global Warming.
BUT, the extreme weather variability could lead to food supply problems. Unpredictable weather patterns (short term) make it very difficult to adjust crop production.
Is Carter A Best Case Scenario?
The End of the Clinton Era Let it be with Weiner's denouement, finally!
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
The above graph covers cycles 21 - 23. Notice that in solar cycles 21 and 22, the irradiance, sunspot numbers, and solar flare index are closely correlated, but in cycle 23 the solar flare index goes way south. Also, solar cycle 24 was very late in getting started, and even when started looks like it will be a very low cycle (models currently point to something like the Dalton Minimum, I'm thinking it could wind up even lower).
Sunspot levels can serve as an indirect indicator of the strength of the solar magnetic field. I'm wondering if there could be some coupling mechanism involving interactions between the solar magnetic field and Earth's magnetic field which could have effects on the Earth's core? Any real physicists around who could chime in?
Oh My God, the tide’s going out - the sea will disappear...
Oh My God, the tide’s coming in - we'll all drown ...
Oh My God, the tide’s going out - the sea will disappear...
Oh My God, the tide’s coming in - we'll all drown ...
Oh My God, the tide’s going out - the sea will disappear...
To extend your analogy, let’s suppose that 350 years ago the tide mysteriously stopped for more than 50 years, a period that was also notable for extreme cold. Would you be at all concerned if scientists using multiple types of indicators predicted the start of a similar period in a decade or so?
———So what does all that mean?———
I’ve heard that if the sun misses a period, it is likely pregnant.
Are you saying that beryllium-10 is a marker for sunspot activity? If the Sun is the only source of beryllium-10 that might be a predictor, but how would you date the age of the deposit from the ice core? The accumulation is not constant. And You have the issue of atmospheric attenuation of that particle with cloud cover etc.
I am not negative to trying to find techno indicators, BUT I have some experience with computer analysis and know how much nonsense you can ad with the “assumptions” you use in the program.
Caution is always in order, and I never accept “expert” advice blindly, especially if a lot of money is riding on them finding results, often when there really is none.
Thanks for your take. I’m thinking now it is a chicken-little-bogus manipulation of some kind. If I see real data from real scientists who have convinced me that somehow they have clean credentials, I will not give this credence.
I’m glad it won’t be as hot as Al Gore said, (it never was going to be!) but I don’t see it(the cooling) as a crisis climate change that we have to give more power to the government(s) to control us!
Sure... but if the tides couldn't be restated any more than the sun jazzed ... I'd have to accept the reality of earth's patterns. Since patterns on that level can't be affected by human choices, accepting the inevitable would become part of a rational choice.
That said, there are ways to mitigate damage caused by nature - ways to - maybe - cut some of the starvation that would be caused by a too cold world... Could we do that? We'll see,
Galactic Reset completed 12/21/12...
Thanks for the graph!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.